The first UFC PPV of 2024 is upon us, with two title fights coming live from Toronto, Canada. The first of which is for the vacant Women’s Bantamweight crown between Mayra Bueno Silva and Raquel Pennington, as the division looks to replace longtime champion Amanda Nunes.
Then we get to the main event, a heated showdown between hard-hitting South African Dricus Du Plessis and new champion Sean Strickland. Lineups lock at 6:30 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Sean Strickland ($8,200) vs. Dricus Du Plessis ($8,000)
Sean Strickland derailed the UFC’s attempt to promote an all-African showdown between Du Plessis and former champion Israel Adesanya by pulling off one of the most shocking upsets in recent UFC history.
His fight against Adesanya was Strickland at his best. Marching forward and staying just inside kicking range, Strickland kept the pressure on for 25 minutes. He showed off his defensive acumen and incredible cardio while outstriking Adesanya by more than 40 strikes, while also becoming the first man to knock Adesanya down in the Octagon.
He’ll need to use those tools against Du Plessis, a much bigger, more powerful fighter than Adesanya. “Stillknocks” is 6-0 in the UFC with five finishes, four by knockout. He’s a more dynamic striker, lunging in and out of range at odd angles while launching a huge volume of heavy shots.
Power certainly favors Du Plessis here, and he’s also the more willing (if not more able) grappler. Those are both good things for DFS, though the calculus changes for a five-round fight. The challenger has never been to championship rounds, with just one three-round decision in his career.
Strickland’s constant volume can pay off over 25 minutes, averaging well over 100 points over his last three bouts. That makes both fighters solid DFS plays. They’re a must-stack for cash games, with similar appeal in GPPs — though I’m leaning slightly towards the challenger.
Co-Main Event
Mayra Bueno Silva ($8,600) vs. Raquel Pennington ($7,600)
The co-main event shakes out very differently from a DFS standpoint. Neither woman averages a high volume of strikes, and both come in at less than a takedown per 15 minutes.
That means it will be hard to get a usable DFS score from the loser, even at Pennington’s lowered price point. She’s even less active than Bueno Silva, with just three finishes in 12 UFC wins (compared to four finishes in five wins for the favorite).
All of this means I have limited interest in the 35-year-old Pennington. The track record of older fighters in title fights (especially lower weight classes) is bad, and she’s coming off a close split-decision win over Ketlen Viera. The UFC wants to build a Bueno Silva vs. Julianna Pena grudge match, and Pennington is unlikely to derail that.
While “Sheetara” won’t be a priority in my lineups either, she’s a fine option. Her finishing rate is high enough that she should post a solid score, either through five rounds of activity or a stoppage. I’ll mix her in some of my lineups, but I won’t go out of my way.
The Easy Chalk
Mike Malott ($9,300)
“Proper” Mike Malott has ballooned to a -360 favorite on DraftKings and could close as the heaviest favorite on the card. That makes him a clear value at $9,300, and likely one of the most popular fighters on the slate.
However, I’m not entirely sold on his chances. He has a tough test in Neil Magny ($6,900), a 31-fight UFC veteran and perennial ranked welterweight. It’s a massive step up in competition for Malott, whose prior opponents are collectively 8-10 in the UFC.
While Malott has finished all 10 of his professional wins, Magny is a tough out. “The Haitian Sensation” has a seven-inch reach edge, making striking difficult. Magny is also a dangerous submission grappler, using his reach well to set up a variety of chokes.
I expect Malott to eventually get it done, but not necessarily pay off his $9,300 salary. I’ll have some tournament exposure but probably come in well under the field.
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The Upside Play
Movsar Evloev ($8,700)
I considered Evloev for the “Easy Chalk” section of this article. That’s thanks to his fighting style, which is one of the best in the UFC for DFS players.
Evloev is averaging nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes in his 7-0 UFC career. His last three fights have all topped 120 DraftKings points, and he has a solid matchup with Arnold Allen ($7,500). Allen might be the sweet spot for Evloev — strong enough grappling to get back to his feet but not prevent further takedowns.
I can see a case for the underdog winning here, as “empty” takedowns don’t always score points, and Evloev isn’t much of a finisher. However, even if the decision went the other way in his last three fights, he would’ve still topped 90 DraftKings points in each of them.
The only way Evloev really fails here is a quick loss, but this fight is -300 to go to a decision. Even if that decision goes against him, he could still end up in the optimal lineup. I might even consider a stack or two for large-field GPPs — a fight where Allen wins a decision based on striking volume and Evloev racks up takedowns could pay off for both of them. That combination will see virtually zero ownership with two title fights.
The Value Plays
Malcolm Gordon ($8,300)
There are a couple of directions we could go here, depending on what you’re looking for with “value.” There are some cheap fighters likely to see a decision (like Arnold Allen). There’s also a fighter with massive line movement, leaving his DFS salary way too cheap — that’s Gordon.
Early in the week, Gordon was just a -130 or so favorite. That line has dropped all the way to around -200, making him roughly $500 too cheap. He’s taking on Jimmy Flick ($7,900), who, outside of a shocking flying armbar in his UFC debut, has been bad.
Flick is an old-school submission-only fighter, which works really well — until people figure it out. Flick’s awful striking and inability to pick up takedowns make it hard to see him pulling off an upset here, which explains the line movement.
As long as Gordon doesn’t force the grappling here, he should coast — and hopefully pick up a stoppage along the way. This fight is -400 to end inside the distance, the longest odds on the card.
The Contrarian Choice
Priscila Cachoeira ($6,700)
We’re reaching the bottom of the barrel with this one, the cheapest fighter on the card. Barring further line movement, Cachoeira will be the heaviest underdog on the card as she takes on Jasmine Jasudavicius ($9,500) in the second bout of the night.
There’s a path to DFS success for Cachoeira here. Nicknamed “Zombie Girl,” Cachoeira comes by her moniker honestly. A brawler, she’ll wade through punches from her opponent while firing bombs of her own, hoping to connect with the big punch that changes the fight.
She’s 4-5 in the UFC, with knockouts in three of those wins (and the other was a decision that should’ve gone against her.) Her opponent is 3-2 in the UFC, with all five fights going to the judges.
Jasudavicius is the far more technical fighter, both on the feet and on the ground. However, she’s not especially powerful, nor does she have an elite submission game. That’s scary against a violent opponent like Cachoeira, who needs to just land one big shot to win the fight.
She’s obviously a long shot for good reason, but I’ll have some slight exposure in big GPPs.
The Swing Fight
Serhey Sidey ($8,900) vs. Ramon Tavares ($7,300)
Outside of the Malcolm Gordon fight, this bout has the longest odds to end inside the distance at -330. It’s the rare Contender Series rematch, as Sidey punched his ticket to the UFC with a win over Tavares back in September.
That fight was a first-round knockout for Sidey, but it wasn’t without controversy. Sidey dropped Tavares, but Tavares appeared to recover immediately despite the ref waving it off. That’s why we’re getting a rematch — Tavares went on to win a different DWCS fight — here at UFC 297.
Which is all well and good, except Sidey was winning that fight either way. He was winning before the knockdown, and he likely would’ve put Tavares away definitively had it continued. On the other hand, Tavares has big power of his own, and the betting lines don’t think it’s so cut-and-dry. They have Tavares as just a +154 underdog, or about 40% to win.
If he does win, it’s probably a knockout of his own. The Florida product has finished eight of his nine pro wins, though against very low-level competition.
I plan on being pretty heavy on the favorite here, but the winner likely makes the optimal lineup regardless of who it is. Because of that, I’ll work in some Tavares as a hedge.
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