The last UFC card of the year is here, and it’s a doozy. UFC 296 goes down on Saturday, with two title fights atop a stacked 12-fight card. Welterweight champion Leon Edwards looks to make his second title defense against Colby Covington, and Alexandre Pantoja rematches Brandon Royval in the first defense of his flyweight belt.
We’ll cover both those fights and much more below. Lineups lock at 6:30 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Leon Edwards ($8,200) vs. Colby Covington ($8,000)
I handled the betting preview for the main event this week, so if you’re interested in an in-depth breakdown of both fighters’ styles and the context around the main event, check that one out.
Instead, I want to use this space to talk about the conundrum this fight presents from a DFS standpoint. On the one hand, Edwards is too cheap for a fighter whose moneyline has moved all the way to -155. Especially since I think he should be an even bigger favorite — see my betting guide.
On the other hand, even in his dominant wins, Edwards isn’t a great DFS fighter. He hasn’t topped 100 points on DraftKings since 2018 and has just one finish in his last seven fights. He has solid power, but his low output and lack of offensive wrestling limits his ability to put up big fantasy scores.
This is the exact opposite of Covington, who has very limited power but loves to wrestle and throws tons of strikes. Covington is averaging well over 100 DraftKings points in his UFC career, with respectable scores of 49 and 57 in his two title fight losses.
Of course, it would be hard for Covington to make the optimal lineup without a win, as his $8,000 salary isn’t that cheap. Therefore, I’m probably fading this fight in most of my GPP lineups.
For cash games, I prefer to stack the co-main event (for reasons we’ll discuss shortly) but I am fine with either fighter in the main event if the $200 in salary savings is important to your roster.
I prefer Edwards, but I can also see a case for fading this one in cash games as well — it’s far from a must-play.
Co-Main Event
Alexandre Pantoja ($8,700) vs. Brandon Royval ($7,500)
It’s not often that we see a flyweight fight with the longest odds to end inside the distance on a card — but that’s exactly what we have with the UFC 296 co-main event.
That’s one of the reasons I want to stack this fight for cash games. A finish is overwhelmingly likely at -550 odds, and by pairing both fighters together, you ensure you’ll get the points from that finish in your lineup.
The other reason is the tremendous activity rate from both fighters. The favored Pantoja scored 143 DraftKings points without finishing his title win in July, while Royval’s recent wins produced scores of 96 and 105 points.
From a GPP perspective, that means you almost certainly want one of these two in your lineup. I personally believe Royval is undervalued here, as I highlighted in my Luck Ratings this week. However, the line has moved against me a bit, so I want some exposure to Pantoja as well.
Still, that line movement also means we’ll see heavier ownership on the champion, which pushes me a bit harder to my initial read on “Raw Dog.”
Either way, I’m not entering a lineup without one of these two in it.
The Easy Chalk
Shavkhat Rakhmonov ($9,700)
Perhaps the best welterweight in the sport, Rakhmonov is an uber-prospect who’s finished all five of his UFC fights against increasingly difficult competition. That level continues to rise this weekend as he takes on the veteran Stephen Thompson ($6,500).
The 39-year-old Thompson is coming off a solid victory over Kevin Holland in his last appearance, but had dropped two in a row to top competition coming into this fight. He’s a huge underdog this time, with Rakhmonov favored around -600.
A pair of fairly heavy favorites were late scratches from this card, which should push a large portion of the field onto “Nomad” instead. He’s pretty clearly the safest bet for a solid score on the card, with -175 odds to finish the fight inside the distance.
Still, I have questions about his ability to pay off his massive salary. Thompson is an elite defensive fighter who’s been finished just once in 19 UFC appearances despite consistently fighting the division’s top talent. His counterstrike-heavy karate style forces opponents to be patient on the feet, and he’s stifled the wrestling of all but the best grapplers in the division.
Between his likely heavy ownership and a possibly slower fight, I’ll be underweight on the field on the favorite in GPPs. However, he’s a pretty safe bet for cash games.
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The Upside Play
Shamil Gaziev ($7,800)
UFC newcomer Shamil Gaziev gets quite the stage to make his debut, kicking off the UFC 296 card fresh off a first-round submission win on the Contender Series.
Gaziev is 11-0 in his career, with 10 of those wins inside the distance — and all of those finishes within six minutes. He’s taking on UFC veteran Martin Buday ($8,300), who’s 4-0 in the promotion with three decision victories, against mostly lower-level competition.
It’s hard to say that Buday’s level of opposition is appreciably lower than Gaziev’s, which explains the relatively close betting line. That line has shifted towards the newcomer throughout the week, with Gaziev going from +138 odds to as low as +110 on Friday.
It’s not about if Gaziev wins, though, but how. He’s extremely aggressive, as evidenced by his stoppage rate in his career. However, I have major questions about his cardio in a long fight, with his only bout that made it past six minutes going to a split decision.
On the other hand, Buday’s style could be described as either “patient” or “plodding,” depending on how generous you’d like to be. Three of his four UFC wins were decisions, with a submission over Josh Parisian as the sole outlier. He’ll start to take over the fight if he survives the opening round or so.
hat means a win for Gaziev likely comes early, which would lead to a big DFS score.
The Value Play
Cody Durden ($7,900)
The other men’s flyweight fight on this card features the criminally underrated Cody Durden taking on Tagir Ulanbekov ($8,300) in a prelim bout between two grapplers.
Durden checks the usual boxes we’re looking for in a (somewhat) cheap player. The fight is +150 to end inside the distance (second longest stoppage odds on the card), and the moneyline has dropped on Durden slightly throughout the week.
On top of that, I’ve grown more convinced in Durden’s chances to win this one outright. He’s the bigger, stronger, fighter of the pair, with arguably stronger grappling than his Dagestani opponent. Durden has better numbers across the board in takedowns landed, accuracy, and defense.
I was also very impressed by the growth he’s sown in his striking lately, with excellent footwork against opposite-stance fighters. Still, his A-game is his wrestling (he has the USA Wrestling logo tattooed on his shoulder), and it’s hard to beat three straight fights with four or more takedowns.
Durden should land a few here even if he doesn’t get the win, giving him a solid floor. He’ll almost certainly land a bunch if he wins, giving him an even better ceiling.
The Contrarian Choice
Alonzo Menifield ($7,100)
Menifield is a thinner version of Gaziev on Saturday’s card. A massive power puncher, he’s taking on a much more disciplined and technical opponent in Dustin Jacoby ($9,100), who should be the better all-around fighter.
However, Jacoby is a former middleweight fighting at light heavyweight, while Menifield is a huge 205er with six finished (five in the first round) in seven UFC wins.
While Jacoby has plenty of stopping power himself, the safest option for the favorite is to chip away at Menifield and try to win once “Atomic” runs out of gas. For Menifield, his best bet is emptying the tank early, and hoping to land one of his massive punches.
All he needs is one to pull off the upset, which would clearly place him in the optimal lineup on Saturday. He’s a very risky play but should be mostly overlooked by the field — making him worth some exposure in large-field tournaments.
The Swing Fight
Andre Fili ($8,500) vs. Lucas Almeida ($7,700)
I’m still waiting for DraftKings to post stoppage odds on this featherweight prelim fight, but other books have this bout around -250 to be decided without the aid of the judges.
This feels about right to me, as both fighters are far more proficient offensively than defensively. Andre “Touchy” Fili (pronounced “feely”) is a veteran of 20 UFC bouts, with a 1-3-1 record over his last five. He’s a bit of a glass cannon, with five knockouts delivered and five received in those fights.
Fili seems to have abandoned grappling in his recent fights, which should make for a fun matchup with Almeida. The Brazilian is 1-1 in the UFC, with a knockout win and a submission loss. Like Fili, he looks great striking until he gets hit, suffering a knockdown of his own in his UFC victory.
Neither fighter here is afraid to trade leather, and both have questionable chins. That should make for a big score — either from plenty of volume or a quick stoppage — for whoever emerges victorious.
I’m leaning towards Almeida. He’s a bit underpriced for his +145 betting line, and that extra salary could go a long way. He’ll also likely be lower owned, which helps from a game theory standpoint. Still, I’ll have plenty of Fili lines, as he could easily cover his salary with a knockout.
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