UFC 295 was set to be the return of heavyweight legend Stipe Mioccic against the arguable greatest fighter of all time in Jon Jones, but for the third consecutive event, an injury to one of the main event fighters caused the fight to be canceled.
However, in its place, we have a stacked card, with two vacant titles up for grabs. The main event is the return of Jiri Prozchaka, a one-time light heavyweight champion who surrendered his belt due to injury, against former middleweight champion Alex Pereira.
We still have a heavyweight banger at the top of the card, with a co-main event for an interim championship between Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall, two of the most promising heavyweight prospects in a long time.
Lineups lock at 6:00 ET for the 13-fight card at Madison Square Garden, with the main card set to start at 10:00 p.m.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Alex Pereira ($8,400) vs. Jiri Prozchaka ($7,800)
The removal of Jon Jones vs. Stipe Mioccic shifted the planned co-main event into top billing — but it’s a good one. Former champion Jiri Prozchaka is returning from a 15-month layoff due to a severe shoulder injury to reclaim his belt against Alex Pereira.
The path was cleared by an injury to the next man to hold the belt, Jamahal Hill, which returned the belt to vacant status. For Pereira, this will be his second fight at light heavyweight, following a win over Jan Blachowicz in his divisional debut.
Pereira is a former middleweight champion and long-time elite kickboxer. He’s best known for his rivalry with Israel Adesanya, in which Pereira won both kickboxing fights and split two MMA fights. Pereira is a pure striker with heavy hands and excellent kicks who is rapidly evolving his grappling for MMA.
Prozchaka is also primarily a striker, with just one takedown in his UFC career. However, he’s the more well-rounded fighter of the pair, defeating Pereira’s mentor Glover Teixeira with a submission to claim the title in 2022. I wouldn’t be surprised if he mixed in some grappling against Pereira, as he should hold somewhat of an edge if he can bring it to the ground.
From a DFS standpoint, this is the likelier of the two title fights to be an extended affair. Both bouts have over/unders of 1.5 rounds, but this one has the over at -175 compared to +175 for the heavyweights. That means higher floors but lower ceilings for both fighters.
For GPPs, I’m leaning fairly heavily toward Prozchaka. He’s topped 93 points in all three of his UFC contests, whereas Pereira tends to disappoint for DFS even when he wins. He’s broken 100 points just once despite five wins and three stoppages.
For cash games, this is my preferred fight to stack. A back-and-forth brawl is somewhat possible here, as is a late knockout by Pereira following plenty of takedowns from Prozchaka, either of which would lead to acceptable scores from the loser.
However, if you have a strong take on the eventual winner, it’s probably fine to just roster one or the other.
Co-Main Event
Tom Aspinall ($8,200) vs. Sergei Pavlovich ($8,000)
The UFC’s replacement heavyweight title fight features two fast-rising contenders in Pavlovich and Aspinall. Both sport identical 6-1 UFC records and their 14 combined fights have made it out of the first round just once.
Aspinall is a rare heavyweight with a well-rounded skill set. On the feet, he has solid footwork and fast hands thanks to an extensive boxing background. He moves extremely well for a man his size, even after his torn ACL against Curtis Blaydes in July of 2022.
His grappling is his strong suit, though, which truly separates him from most of the heavyweight field. In a division packed with heavy hitters, he has a unique combination of excellent takedowns and submission skills. That allows him to dictate where his fights take place, though he’s primarily fought strikers. Only one opponent (Sergei Spivac) attempted to take Aspinall down.
Pavlovich is a massive Russian with extreme stopping power. Since dropping his UFC debut to Alastair Overeem, he’s finished six straight opponents in the first round, all via punches. At 6’3″ tall with an 84-inch reach, he’s the most physically imposing heavyweight in the division since Brock Lesnar.
Pavlovich’s grappling — both defense and offense — is the big question here. He’s never attempted a takedown in the Octagon of his own. He’s only ever been taken down by Overeem, which is somewhat forgivable given that it came as a surprise that the former kickboxer even attempted to wrestle.
Perhaps the X-factor here is that Pavlovich was set to be the backup for the original main event of the card. In theory, that means he’s been training for this fight, whereas Aspinall is stepping in on two weeks’ notice. Pavlovich was likely even preparing for a well-rounded fighter likely to take him down in Jon Jones.
Still, this is an extremely tough fight to call. The winner is likely to have a huge score, while the loser has a floor of almost zero. The fight is -150 to end in the first round, making it a must to roster one fighter or the other for GPPs.
It’s a tricky spot for cash games. We generally like to stack five-round fights thanks to the extra scoring opportunities provided by the championship rounds. However, it’s pretty unlikely that comes into play here. Additionally, there are two championship fights on the card, and it’s uncomfortable to guarantee two losses in your lineup.
On the other hand, guaranteeing that the winner ends up in your lineup makes sense, too. I’m leaning towards rostering just Pavlovich here, but taking a side on either fighter is a scary proposition.
The Easy Chalk
Mateusz Rebecki ($9,600)
Rebecki was originally booked against the undefeated Nurullo Aliev in a pairing that saw Rebecki installed as a slight favorite. An injury to Aliev forced him off the card, but fortunately for Rebecki, the UFC was able to find a replacement opponent.
Unfortunately for DFS players, this switch happened early enough to give Rebecki an appropriate salary. He’s the heaviest favorite on the card with massive -700 odds against Roosevelt Roberts ($6,600). Roberts had a three-fight losing streak in the UFC, was cut from the promotion, then invited back for The Ultimate Fighter Season 31 — where he was eliminated in the second round.
He’ll be thoroughly overmatched against Rebecki, who has a lethal mix of heavy hands, powerful leg kicks, and high-level wrestling.
Rebecki is especially valuable on this card, given how close most of the other matchups are. The next-most expensive fighter, Jamaal Emmers ($9,400), is only a -250 favorite. The extra $200 in salary buys a ton of extra safety, making him a must-play in cash games.
His fantasy-friendly style makes him appealing in GPPs as well, given that he topped 100 DraftKings points in both of his prior UFC appearances. On a slate with very few safe options, Rebecki should be popular.
The Upside Play
Benoit Saint-Denis ($9,100)
Outside of the title fighters, no fighter on the slate has a higher ceiling projection than “God of War.” His fight with Matt Frevola ($7,100) has “Fight of the Night” written all over it, with Saint-Denis a bit better than a -200 favorite.
Similar to Rebecki, his fighting style is close to perfect for DFS. Saint-Denis marches to the center of the cage, throws furious strikes at full power — then grabs a takedown when that doesn’t work. His ability to hunt finishes and wrack up takedowns gives him upside no matter how this fight goes.
Despite only fighting in three-round bouts, he’s exceeded 130 DraftKings points in two of his four wins and topped 100 in each of them. He can put up a big score with an early knockout, or pile up takedowns in a longer fight — either of which you’d be happy with.
He’s nowhere near as safe of an option as Rebecki, thanks to the big power coming back at him from Frevola. That makes him more of an upside GPP play than a cash game option, though he’s a strong cash play as well if you can stomach the risk.
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The Value Play
Tabatha Ricci ($7,500)
With the number of close fights on the card, we’re getting a relative value on plenty of underdogs relative to their betting lines. This includes Ricci, who’s fairly cheap for her +150 underdog odds.
This fight also checks the typical boxes for a cash game salary saver. At +225 odds to end inside the distance, it’s the likeliest bout to go all 15 minutes. Both Ricci and her opponent, Loopy Godinez ($8,700), average roughly four takedowns per 15 minutes, as well as throwing strikes at an above-average rate.
All of Godinez’s career finishes came via submission. That’s unlikely to work against Ricci, who holds double black belts in Judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has been grappling since she was a toddler.
I also like Ricci as a live dog here. She’s shown huge improvement in her striking in recent fights, to go with the obvious grappling threat she poses. She’s also never lost at strawweight, with her only career defeat coming on short notice at flyweight against current contender Manon Fiorot.
Either way, she doesn’t need a win to be a valuable cash game piece here, thanks to her solid floor. A win would be an added bonus and keep her in the optimal lineup conversation.
The Contrarian Choice
Viacheslav Borshchev ($7,700)
So far in his UFC career, the man known as “Slava Claus” has had two types of fights. Option A is a stand-up war where his power and aggression rule the day. Option B is when his opponent brings him to the mat, where his limited grappling leads to a loss.
As such, his four UFC appearances have seen scores of 110+ or under 35, with nothing in between. The likelier option this weekend is B, as Slava is a slight underdog against Nazim Sadykhov ($8,500). However, Sadykhov has just one takedown in three UFC/DWCS fights.
That boosts the chances of this fight going Borschev’s way. While there’s no guarantee he wins the stand-up exchanges, he’s yet to be bested on the feet in his career. He’s also underpriced for being just a +105 underdog, with considerable line movement his way.
The binary nature of his performances makes him a scary cash game play. However, he’s an excellent option for GPPs, with a sky-high ceiling projection.
The Swing Fight
Pat Sabatini ($8,300) vs. Diego Lopes ($7,900)
I broke down this fight from a betting standpoint earlier in the week, but I’ll recap the main points here. Sabatini is an elite grappler with a collegiate wrestling background and a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. Lopes is the jiu-jitsu coach to UFC stars like Irene Aldana and Alexa Grasso and is a threat to anyone on the mat.
This makes this an exciting fight for grappling fans — and DFS players. Lopes is comfortable hunting submissions from his back, which should lead to plenty of takedowns and top control for Sabatini. If Lopes can land a submission, he’ll end up with a strong price-considered score of his own.
Lopes also brings a bit of upside on his feet. He’s an aggressive striker with a wild Muay Thai style. I have concerns about his ability to maintain that pace. He’s 2-4 in fights that go to a decision and noticeably slowed in his UFC debut. Conversely, Sabatini starts slow but builds as the fight goes on.
That gives both fighters a clear path to upside. A quick finish from Lopes or a slew of takedowns over the course of a long fight for Sabatini. Either way, the winner here should end up in the optimal lineup.
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