The UFC heads down under for UFC 293, with a fight card featuring plenty of Oceanic fighters, including UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya representing New Zealand.
The 12-fight card goes down at 6:30 p.m. ET, with the main card starting at 10:00 on pay-per-view.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Israel Adesanya ($9,700) vs. Sean Strickland ($6,500)
Unlike in other sports, DraftKings UFC pricing is based almost entirely on betting lines. Fighter’s past DFS performances have little bearing on their salaries. That creates a conundrum with Israel Adesanya, as he’s frequently a justifiable massive favorite — but unlikely to score enough points to justify his price tag.
For fighters to put up a big score, they need quick finishes or takedowns. Adensaya provides neither, with just one finish and one takedown across his past six fights. None of those fights saw him score over 100 DraftKings points, which could be considered the bare minimum he needs to potentially pay off his salary.
He’s more “sniper” than “volume puncher,” which creates an interesting matchup against Strickland. The unlikely title challenger is similarly limited in takedowns and stoppage equity but lands nearly two extra significant strikes per minute.
Of course, landing those strikes on Adesanya is a lot tougher than on any other middleweight, so it’s hard to project Strickland especially well. On the other hand, he doesn’t need to score much to pay off his salary, making him the more intriguing DFS play.
It’s Strickland or pass for me in GPPs. He scored 68 points in his last loss and could sneak into the optimal even without a win bonus here. Fading the champion in cash games is a viable play as well if you think the salary could be better used elsewhere.
The Easy Chalk
Manel Kape ($9,300)
There’s a handful of fighters in the low $9,000 range projecting similarly this time, but Kape leads the pack by a hair. He’s a -400 or so favorite depending on the book (with the line shifting his way recently), as he takes on UFC newcomer Felipe dos Santos ($6,900).
Kape was originally booked for a much tougher matchup with Kai Kara-France before an injury to the latter forced him off the card. Now, dos Santos is stepping up on short notice instead of fighting on the Contender Series as was originally planned.
Taking on a top 10 fighter in your division is a rough way to make your UFC debut, especially considering Kape’s three-fight win streak. He’s picked up finishes in two of those three and is -175 to win by a finish here. He should handle business here and has the best combination of safety and upside on the slate.
The Upside Play
Carlos Ulberg ($9,200)
Like his teammate Israel Adesanya, Carlos Ulberg is a former high-level kickboxer who made the transition to MMA. His jump was a bit rockier at first, suffering a knockout in his UFC debut and following that up with a lackluster decision win.
He’s put it together lately, though, with three straight first-round knockouts against increasingly stiff competition. He’s got another step up this time against Da Un Jung ($7,000), who’s 4-2-1 in the UFC, including a win over Kennedy Nzechukwu, who knocked out Ulberg.
Jung is trending in the wrong direction, though, with consecutive losses in his last two fights. He’s got a significant grappling edge, but given Ulberg’s 100% takedown defense in the UFC thus far, it might not matter. Ulberg is also the far better overall athlete and seems to be putting it together in MMA.
The UFC knew what they were doing with this matchup, giving the immensely popular Ulberg a chance to shine in front of his home fans. He’s a hair riskier than Kape as “only” a -300 favorite but has as much upside as any fighter on the slate.
The Value Play
Chepe Mariscal ($7,500)
There are no women’s fights on this card, and only two bouts are favored to go to the judges. One of those is Mariscal against Jack Jenkins ($8,700), which is +130 to end inside the distance.
Mariscal is an underdog here, but I’m not so sure that he should be. He stepped up a weight class on short notice in his UFC debut against Trevor Peek and showed off his Judo background with four takedowns en route to a unanimous decision win.
Jekins’ last fight was a controversial split decision win over Jamall Emmers, in which Emmers was able to take him down and control him for the entire third round. While Jenkins can grapple himself, I think Mariscal should have a considerable edge in that department — which we love for DFS.
Mariscal handled himself well against a dangerous striker last time out as well. He should fare even better in that department when he’s not giving up so much size and strength. He’s an excellent floor play with an underrated ceiling.
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The Contrarian Choice
Gabriel Miranda ($7,600)
Miranda is another underdog I love this week. Not so much because of his ability but because of his opponent. He’s taking on Shane Young ($8,600), another City Kickboxing fighter, but one who hasn’t won a fight since 2019.
Young has dropped three straight in that time frame against relatively low-level competition. He also missed weight by nearly four pounds for this fight, another red flag when paired with his time away from competition. He’s likely fighting for his job here.
Young was taken down and dominated on the ground in both of his last two fights, making this a tough matchup with Miranda. Miranda is one of the jiu-jitsu coaches at MMA Masters in Florida and is a high-level grappler. In the limited tape I found on him, he also appears to have solid takedowns, which is a big problem for Young.
This line is likely heavily skewed based on the location of this fight. I don’t think “home court advantage” is a major factor in UFC fights unless things go to the judges. This one is -175 to end inside the distance, and Miranda will easily pay off his salary with a win. I’m considering him for both cash games and GPPs.
The Swing Fights
Alexander Volkov ($8,800) vs. Tai Tuivasa ($7,400)
Was there any doubt what fight would be listed here? Tai Tuivasa is back on home turf following a two-fight losing streak, taking on (another) massive Russian in Volkov.
This is an extremely binary fight, with Volkov having a huge edge in the grappling and Tuivasa well known for his one-punch knockout power. The prevailing thought is that Volkov should dominate this one on the ground, as Tuivasa has been beaten that way in the past by Blagoy Ivanov and Serghei Spivac.
Volkov is far from a dominant grappler, though, and his last takedown came more than three years ago. He’s in danger as long as this one stays on the feet — and every round starts that way.
I’m going to be overweight on Tuivasa relative to the field. This is somewhat of a step down in competition after fighting Ciryl Gane and Sergei Pavlovich in his last two fights. He’s also nearly guaranteed to make the optimal lineup with a win, whereas Volkov could theoretically eke out a slower fight and not pay off his salary.
Of course, he could also grab a quick takedown and submission, which would give him a strong score as well. I’ll be mixing in some lineups with him, just in case.
Stay away from this one in cash games, but load up for tournaments.
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