UFC 292 comes to Boston on Saturday with two title fights, including bantamweight champion Aljamain “Funk Master” Sterling taking on fan-favorite “Suga” Sean O’Malley. We also have a women’s strawweight title fight, the TUF 31 championship rounds, and the return of former champion Chris Wediman.
All in all, it’s a 12-fight card that kicks off at 6:00 p.m. ET on Saturday. Let’s break it all down below.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Aljamain Sterling ($8,900) vs. Sean O’Malley ($7,300)
After a mercurial — if not necessarily meritorious — rise to the top of the bantamweight division, polarizing contender “Suga” Sean O’Malley gets his first crack at UFC gold against reigning champion Aljamain Sterling.
O’Malley is 8-1-1 in the UFC, though just two of his wins came against fighters still employed by the promotion. He was also awarded a very controversial split decision in his last contest, a win over former champion (and Sterling Rival) Petr Yan.
All of which paints a picture of a fighter perhaps not quite ready for a title fight. O’Malley has an impressive skill set, though, landing over seven significant strikes per minute and having well above-average power in his hands. He also has underrated submission defense, managing to avoid danger against Yan despite being taken down six times.
On the other hand, being taken down that easily by Yan is a horrible sign against Sterling. Sterling out-grappled Yan en route to a split decision victory in his second title defense, to say nothing of the four takedowns he landed on Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo.
O’Malley may be a future champion, but I doubt this is the time he gets it done. Sterling is probably my favorite play on the slate, thanks to his massive grappling upside, which should allow him to easily pay off his $8,900 salary.
Co-Main Event
Weili Zhang ($9,200) vs. Amanda Lemos ($7,000)
On the other hand, I’m not as confident that the other defending champion — Zhang — is able to pay off her favored salary on Saturday. She’s posted some big DFS scores in the past, but largely based on a high-volume striking attack.
I’m anticipating a somewhat slower pace on the feet this time around. Lemos has massive one-punch power, and Zhang would be well served to adopt a cautious approach in the striking. While Zhang has some light takedown upside here, Lemos has an 81% takedown defense rate and is probably the bigger, stronger fighter.
Zhang is certainly the better technical striker, though, as well as having a plethora of five-round experience that should serve her well down the stretch. The likeliest outcome here is a close first few rounds, followed by Zhang stepping on the gas late.
However, Lemos has massive upside relative to her price, thanks to her one-shot power. That makes her an excellent GPP play, though a bit scary for cash. I don’t think we necessarily need to force either woman in for cash games this time around, though Lemos is the more comfortable fade of the two.
The Easy Chalk
Ian Machado Garry ($9,600)
Garry is likely to be the most popular GPP play (outside of the title fights) based on his massive -500 or so odds against Neil Magny ($6,600). Magny is stepping in on less than two weeks notice to take on the rising welterweight star, who’s a perfect 5-0 in the UFC.
I have my doubts, though. Magny has a long history of turning back rising prospects, and this is a huge step up in competition for “The Future.” While the short-notice bout is tough on Magny, it’s also a challenge for Garry. Garry was preparing for a very different opponent in Geoff Neal — whom Magny defeated in 2021.
MAgny is also one of the longest welterweights on the roster, which is a stylistic challenge for Garry. At 6’3″, Garry generally has a height and length edge on his opponents and uses it extremely well. His long straight punches finished with head kicks and “pull” counters are classic long-fighter techniques.
They won’t work on Magny, though, as “The Haitian Sensation” has a significant six-inch reach edge. I expect this to be much closer than the odds suggest, a viewpoint shared by Sean Zerillo, which we discussed on the latest UFC Betting Preview Podcast:
The Value Plays
Pedro Munhoz ($7,600)
After a difficult three-fight stretch that included a no-contest against Sean O’Malley, in which Munoz won the first round, he finally got back in the win column in his last fight. It was a very impressive performance against Chris Gutierrez, that put Munhoz right back in the title picture.
He has to get through Marlon Vera ($8,600) first, though, in UFC 292’s main card opener. “Chito” saw his four-fight winning streak snapped in his last fight, putting these two at a bit of a crossroads.
This should be a somewhat binary fight, with Vera having an edge on the feet and Munhoz on the ground. However, I expect the striking exchanges to be closer than the grappling action, thanks to Munhoz’s excellent bodywork and fast hands.
If he chooses to grapple — something he hasn’t done in recent fights — Munhoz has a huge edge. Vera lost his fight against Cory Sandhagen largely thanks to being controlled on the ground, and Munhoz should follow a similar game plan.
Munhoz is also an excellent cash game option. The line has drifted his way throughout the week, and at +215, this is the least likely fight to end early. That gives him a solid floor, while his wrestling provides potential upside for GPPs.
The Upside Play
Mario Bautista ($9,100)
Speaking of upside, Mario Bautista has plenty in what should be a grappling-heavy fight against Da’Mon Blackshear ($7,100). Bautista is averaging nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC and should have a willing dance partner in Blackshear.
This is the second fight in a week for Blackshear, who made history with just the third twister submission win in the UFC last weekend. Stepping up to fight again is commendable, but this is a massive step up in competition against Bautista.
The combination of output — both grappling and striking — and finishing odds for Blackshear give him plenty of paths to a slate-winning score. He’ll have a home in most of my lineups this week.
The Contrarian Choice
Chris Weidman ($7,200)
Weidman’s return to action on Saturday is one of the more interesting storylines of UFC 292. The former middleweight champion hasn’t fought in nearly two and a half years since he suffered a gruesome leg break on a checked kick at UFC 261.
At his peak, Weidman would be a massive favorite against his UFC 292 opponent Brad Tavares ($9,000). Tavares has never cracked the top 10 of the UFC middleweight rankings, and at 35 isn’t in his prime either.
Of course, it remains to be seen if Weidman is anywhere near that level. I’m less concerned with the leg holding up than I am the ring rust for a 39-year-old fighter, especially one that had been knocked out in two of his three fights prior to the injury.
Still, he’s the far superior grappler and, at worst, evenly matched on the feet with Tavares, making him an excellent play at the price if you can stomach the risk.
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The Swing Fight
Gregory Rodrigues ($9,500) vs. Dennis Tiuliulin ($6,700)
At first, glance, having a fight this lopsided as the “swing fight” doesn’t make much sense. However, there are some extenuating circumstances here.
The massively favored Rodrigues is an excellent grappler but occasionally finds himself sucked into firefights. He’s a bit of a glass cannon in those moments, with massive power but a highly suspect chin. He was knocked out in January as a similarly lined favorite and has two other KO losses to lesser competition on his record.
With nine of his 11 career wins coming via knockout — including his only win in the Octagon — Tiuliulin has a reasonable shot of finding that button against Rodrigues. That makes him a viable GPP sprinkle — and Rodrigues a bit too scary for cash games.
This fight is -650 to end inside the distance, with under 1.5 rounds favored at -195. Whoever wins this one likely has a spot in the optimal lineup, meaning I’ll include one or the other in all of my lineups on Saturday.
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