UFC 291 goes down from the Vivint Center in Salt Lake City — notable for its elevation — with a Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje headliner for the “BMF” belt as the main event. It’s a stacked overall card, though, with a likely title eliminator as co-main event between Jan Blachowicz and Alex Pereira.
DFS lineups lock at 6:30 p.m. ET, with the main card at 10:00.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Dustin Poirier ($8,300) vs. Justin Gaethje ($7,900)
The main event isn’t for an “official” UFC title, but it’s a five-round for the “BMF” title, contested between two former interim lightweight champions. They fought once back in 2018, an absolute barnburner of a fight that Poirier won by fourth-round knockout.
Since that fight, both men have briefly held interim gold, with both eventually losing to the same two fighters: lightweight GOAT Khabib Nurmagomedov and former champion Charles Oliveira.
Stylistically, they’re both fairly similar fighters with violent, all-action striking styles. Poirier is more of a traditional boxer with fast hands, excellent power, and durability. Gaethje is well known for being one of the UFC’s best leg kickers on top of having solid hands.
The high-volume striking of both men makes this an extremely appealing fight from a DFS standpoint, with -225 odds to end inside the distance as well. That should give the eventual winner an excellent score, with a solid floor for the loser.
Obviously, we’re locking in both of these fighters in cash games. There’s a path to both ending up in the optimal GPP lineup as well, especially if we see some wrestling mixed in. On a 12-fight card, I don’t mind stacking the lone five-round fight in deeper contests where staying unique is at a premium.
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The Easy Chalk
At the top of the salary scale, there’s a new true standout this week. There are three different fighters with similar projections and odds who should all see reasonably similar ownership. It’s nearly impossible to roster all three, with two being somewhat viable. Let’s break them all down briefly.
Bobby Green ($9,500)
Green is fighting Tony Ferguson ($6,700), who’s coming into the fight on a five-fight losing streak that includes three stoppage losses. Once one of the world’s best lightweights, the 39-year-old Ferguson’s best days are clearly behind him,
Green is a -380 favorite, the longest odds on the card. However, this fight is just -110 to end inside the distance — the second shortest odds on the card. Green isn’t known as a finisher, and he almost certainly needs a stoppage to pay off his slate-leading salary.
It’s a bit of a “stoppable force against movable object” situation here, with the easily finished Ferguson fighting a decision machine in Green. Green ranks third among the top fighters in terms of my GPP preferences, but he’s the safest pick of the bunch.
Jake Matthews ($9,300)
On the other end of the spectrum is Matthews, who’s finished more than half of his UFC wins. He’s primarily a striker and has -275 odds against UFC newcomer Darrius Flowers ($6,900).
Flowers might have some grappling upside here, winning his Contender Series bout via a slam. However, he’s a short-notice replacement for Matthews’ original opponent, which is a big issue given the altitude.
Matthews is probably the riskiest of the bunch, but when factoring in price I prefer him to Bobby Green. Thanks to the -300 odds, this one ends inside the distance.
Gabriel Bonfim ($9,200)
It’s just the second official UFC fight for Bonfim, but he’s been very impressive so far in his career. He won both his Contender Series bout and his debut via first-round submissions but also has three knockout wins on his record as well.
He’s taking on Trevin Giles ($7,000), a former middleweight who’s been stopped in both of his recent losses. While Giles is coming off a win, it was a split decision against Preston Parsons — which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
Bonfim is a -330 favorite — better odds than Matthews despite his cheaper price tag. At -360, this is also the likeliest of the three fights to end inside the distance, which makes Bonfim my favorite choice among the upper-tier fighters.
The Value Plays
Michael Chiesa ($7,800)
There are a couple of things to like about Michael Chiesa in his fight against Kevin Holland ($8,400). Chiesa has seen the line move slightly in his direction here, making him a strong value as a narrow -120 underdog. He also holds all the grappling upside here, with a 3.39 takedown per 15-minute average.
Holland has struggled when fighting wrestlers in the past, going so far as to briefly “retire” while saying he’d only return against a fellow striker. That’s obviously not the case here, with Chiesa having one of the lowest significant strikes per minute rates in the promotion.
Chiesa also had a ton of success in a somewhat similar matchup against Neil Magny, giving him a shot at replicating that game plan against Holland. I broke down the technical aspects of this fight in more detail earlier this week, but I’m leaning toward Chiesa as an underdog.
With his salary and grappling upside, he probably doesn’t even need a stoppage to make the optimal lineup. He also has excellent durability, with his only career knockout loss coming via a cut. That gives him a solid floor here as well, making him viable for cash games.
Michel Pereira ($7,400)
Pereira somehow manages to check all of the “cheap fighter” boxes this week, despite being known for his unorthodox, high-violence style. His fight with Stephen Thompson ($8,800) is the only bout on the card favored to make it to a decision, and the moneyline has moved his way all week, as expected:
UFC Free CLV Monday (PPV edition): Michel Pereira at +145 (MGM/Kambi). Has already fallen from +175 or so, expect it to land closer to +130 by fight time
— Billy Ward (@Psychoward586) July 24, 2023
If anything, I undersold it, with his odds at +120 on DraftKings on Friday afternoon.
Pereira has all the grappling upside against the karate-stylist in Thompson, and his pressure striking should be kryptonite against a fighter who needs time and space to set up his attacks.
Both Sean Zerillo and I are on him as an underdog, as we broke down on our latest UFC Betting Preview Podcast:
Even if he doesn’t get the win, his combination of striking volume, grappling upside, and a chance to go all 15 minutes make him an excellent floor play.
Editors note: The bout between Pereira and Thompson has been cancelled due to a weight miss by Pereira
The Upside Play
Alex Pereira ($8,000)
The former middleweight champion is stepping up to light heavyweight to take on Jan Blachowicz ($8,200), a former 205 lbs champion looking for one more shot at the gold.
It’s an interesting stylistic matchup, with Pereira having world-class kickboxing but still somewhat limited MMA experience. Blachowicz defeated current middleweight champion Israel Adesanya when Adesanya stepped up a weight class, largely winning based on his grappling against another former kickboxer.
I’d caution against assuming that will work against Pereira, though. Pereira was a massive middleweight and could be the physically stronger man despite coming up a weight class. Especially considering that Blachowicz is now on the wrong side of 40 and could be declining physically.
Blachowicz took Adesanya down largely based on being bigger and stronger, more than beating him with technical wrestling. If that doesn’t work against Pereira, he could be in trouble. Even if it works initially, the cardio demands of wrestling at high altitudes might be too much over three rounds.
Pereira also has much heavier hands than Adesanya — who landed 78 significant strikes on Blachowicz. If Pereira is able to land that many times it’s hard to see Blachowicz staying conscious for 15 minutes.
With his likeliest win condition coming via knockout, Pereira has tons of upside here. I like Pereira for all contest types, but he’s an especially strong GPP play.
The Contrarian Choice
Priscilla Cachoeira ($6,800)
Cachoeira is one of the cheapest fighters on the card, opening as a massive underdog against late-notice replacement Miranda Maverick ($9,400). Normally it’s the short-notice fighter who comes in as an underdog, making this a somewhat unique situation.
The line has moved considerably, though, with Cachoeira shifting from +260 to +235. The big appeal is her fighting style, though. “Zombie Girl” eschews all attempts at defense, marching forward through her opponent’s strikes, hoping to land one big shot of her own.
She has a major grappling deficit here against Maverick but also has the type of power where she just needs a brief exchange on the feet to pick up a knockout. With Maverick not getting in a full training camp, I like Cachoeira’s odds if this one goes long at high elevation.
She’s a high-ceiling 0-floor play that’s best suited to larger field GPPs.
The Swing Fight
Marcos Rogerio de Lima ($8,500) vs. Derrick Lewis ($7,700)
The UFC’s all-time leader in knockouts returns at UFC 291, as Derrick Lewis looks to right the ship following three consecutive losses. Those losses came against top-tier competition, however, and this is a bit of a step down for the former interim title challenger.
While it’s a step down, it’s still not an easy fight against Rogerio de Lima, a talented striker in his own right who also should have a significant grappling edge. The biggest advantage for de Lima is his leg kicks, though, an area where he excels and Lewis historically struggles to defend.
This one was an obvious choice for this section, thanks to massive -650 odds to end inside the distance. The likeliest outcome is a quick Lewis knockout or a slightly less quick but still early finish by the favorite.
I prefer Lewis for GPPs here, as he has a higher ceiling and a lower salary. de Lima is an obvious cash game choice, though, with the line moving considerably in his favor throughout the week. Not that I won’t be mixing him in for GPPs as well, though.
Either way, it’s a mistake to build a lineup without one of these two in it.
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