After last week’s weirdness with the two heaviest favorites also being two of the cheaper fighters, we’re back with a more standard DFS slate for UFC 289. The main event features a women’s bantamweight title fight between Amanda Nunes and Irene Aldana, and there are just 11 fights on the card. Lineups lock at 7:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Amanda Nunes ($9,500) vs. Irene Aldana ($6,700)
Nunes was originally slated for a trilogy fight against Julianna Pena on this card before an injury to Pena gave Aldana the chance to fight for the title. That was well over a month ago, though — and Aldana was in camp for a different fight — so there’s no concern about a late-notice fight impacting this one.
Nunes is a massive favorite here, befitting her status as the longest-tenured UFC champion (if we ignore her loss to Pena that she immediately avenged in an emphatic fashion). “Lioness” has been incredibly dominant for a long time, winning 13 of her last 14 fights. Only Pena and former bantamweight champion Valentia Shevchenko were even remotely competitive during that span.
Nunes has so thoroughly cleaned out the division that Aldana is getting a title shot on just a two-fight winning streak, though to her credit, both were impressive stoppage victories. Still, it’s hard to see a clear path for Aldana, who’s arguably worse than Nunes in all facets of the game.
The big question here is Nunes’ motivation level, as she looked relatively disinterested in the first Pena fight. She also left the American Top Team training camp for her own facility, which is generally not a great sign. She’s a -350 or so favorite, but the odds would be much longer if we knew she was bringing her A-game.
This is a fairly easy fight to stack for cash games since it’s just an 11-fight card, and Aldana is the cheapest fighter on the slate. That way, we’re insulated against any shocking upsets without having to pay too much for the likely losing fighter.
For GPPs, I’ll have a sprinkle of both women, but I won’t make it a point to force either fighter. Nunes probably needs a first-round finish to pay off her salary, while Aldana is unlikely to have much success.
The Easy Chalk
Dan Ige ($9,100)
It’s hard to narrow down which heavy favorites will be the most popular this week. There’s a reasonable case to be made for all six fighters priced at $8,800 or above, but Ige is my favorite.
“50K” is fighting Nate Landwehr($7,100) in what’s almost certain to be the fight of the night, with Ige’s crisp striking and solid power coming up against Landwehr’s wild brawling style. Landwehr has absorbed more than 5.5 significant strikes per minute in the UFC — despite fighting lesser strikers than Ige.
Landwehr has been successful with his incredible durability and cardio, rallying from the brink of unconsciousness in multiple fights that he’s won. However, none of his past opponents have Ige’s power or striking ability.
Even if he doesn’t, Landwehr’s habit of absorbing ridiculous amounts of strikes — and Ige’s ability to throw them — is a recipe for a huge DFS score. Betting markets have also moved towards Ige throughout the week, and at -260, he’s on the cheaper side relative to his odds.
Sean Zerillo and I see this one going down the same way, as we were excited to discuss it on the latest edition of our Action Network UFC betting Podcast:
The Value Play
Jasmine Jasudavicius ($6,900)
Jasudavicius fits the classic profile of our salary-saver for cash games. Her fight against Miranda Maverick ($9,300) is the likeliest fight on the card to go to the judges, with +225 stoppage odds. Jasudavicius also throws a reasonably high volume of strikes while providing some grappling upside as well.
She’s not the most exciting play, as a significant +240 underdog. However, the line has inched her way throughout the week after opening a bit higher, a good sign when rostering an underdog.
She’s far too thin of a play for GPPs, given her very limited stoppage upside — all three of her UFC/Contender Series wins were via decision. However, she’s an excellent cash game option that allows you to pick whichever heavy favorites you prefer.
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The Upside Play
Mike Malott ($8.800)
I’m torn between a pair of fighters in a similar price range, Malott and Blake Bilder ($9,000), for this section. Both are moderately heavy favorites, with Malott at -205 and Bilder at -245. However, the stoppage odds are much longer in the Malott fight at -400, giving him a better upside.
Malott is arguably the hottest Canadian prospect on the UFC roster right now, which is why he’s been given this showcase spot on the main card of the event in Vancouver. He’s undefeated since 2014, with his only career loss coming to fellow future UFC fighter Hakeem Dawodu.
All five of his victories since then have come in the first round, with three submissions and two knockouts. He’s the clear A-side against Adam Fugitt ($7,400), who’s 1-1 in the UFC with one finish of his own and a knockout loss.
Money has come in on the Fugitt side, though, suggesting this might not be a walkover for Malott. Based on Malott’s track record, he seems like a boom-or-bust option — if he’s unable to put Fugitt away early, he could end up with a very disappointing score.
That makes him an excellent GPP play, but a bit thinner of a cash game option. I prefer to find the extra $200 to get to Bilder in cash contests.
The Contrarian Choice
Chris Curtis ($7,700)
I’m honestly a bit surprised that “The Action Man” is the cheaper fighter/underdog here. He’s fighting Nassourdine Imavov ($8,500) in the featured prelim bout of UFC 289.
Both fighters have identical 4-2 UFC records, but that doesn’t paint the whole picture. Curtis very much should’ve won his last fight against Kelvin Gastelum, but Curtis was dropped with a headbutt in a round he was winning. Unfortunately, the officials thought it was a clean strike, leading to Gasteulum taking a pivotal round on the scorecards.
His only other loss came against Jack Hermansson, who used his reach advantage to essentially run away from Curtis. While Imavov has five inches in height on Curtis, Curtis actually has a slightly longer reach — so that strategy isn’t an option for Imavov.
This should be an entirely striking-based fight, with Curtis yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC while holding 100% takedown defense. That’s a big edge for him since he has significant edges in both volume and power over Imavov.
At his price point, almost any win would be enough to land him in the optimal lineup. A knockout would certainly get him there, though, and that’s how he’s secured three of his four UFC victories.
The Swing Fight
Beneill Dariush ($8,600) vs. Charles Oliveira ($7,600)
UFC 289 has one of the best co-main events in a long time. Two of the top fighters in the UFC’s stacked lightweight division square off for the next shot at the title.
The former champion Oliveira won 11 straight UFC fights, including three title fights, before being dethroned by Islam Makhachev the last time out. Oliveira is one of the most exciting fighters ever in the UFC, with a ridiculous 19 finishes in 21 wins. He has been stopped in all but one of his nine losses though, making him the epitome of a boom-or-bust option for DFS.
Dariush fights with a more tactical approach. He’s riding an eight-fight win streak, with an even mixture of stoppages and decisions. He’s an elite grappler known for his wrestling, but his submission skills are equally potent. Before transitioning full-time to MMA, he was a world champion in jiu-jitsu at the blue, purple, and brown belt levels.
Which could be the key against Oliveira, who holds the UFC record for most submission wins. Oliveira isn’t a great takedown artist, but he frequently lures opponents into his guard by playing possum after being hit standing, and more often than not, is able to find a submission.
I’m not sure that’s a great plan against Dariush, though. This one will only be on the canvas if Dariush wants it to be, and he has the submission defense to win minutes while staying out of trouble. It will thus come down to the striking exchanges to determine who wins this one.
While Oliveira is the better pure striker, the threat of takedowns from Dariush may shift the striking in his favor. I’ll be a bit heavier on the favorite here — and I consider him a must for cash games. Still, I’ll certainly mix in a heavy dose of “Do Bronx” in GPPs.
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