Another UFC card has been hit with a rash of cancellations, but fortunately, enough fighters stepped up to fill out a solid 12-fight card. The main event is between 135 lbs champion Aljamain Sterling against Henry Cejudo — who “retired” three years ago having never lost that same belt.
We also have a five-round co-main event between Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad, adding to the puzzle of lineup building for DFS.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Aljamain Sterling ($8,100) vs. Henry Cejudo ($8,100)
The fact that DraftKings priced both these fighters at $8,100 — something I’ve never seen before in my years of covering/playing UFC DFS — tells you how hard it is to pick a side here. Sterling is the defending 135lbs champion, facing a former champion who never lost the belt in the cage.
It’s a fun fight from a DFS perspective, as there should be plenty of grappling to go around. Cejudo is a 2008 Olympic gold medalist, and “Funkmaster” has an unorthodox jiu-jitsu game that generally lets him pick up plenty of reversals and control time.
Sterling is significantly bigger, though, which should give him an edge in the striking department. I also give Sterling a slight edge in the grappling department once it hits the mat. Cejudo’s wrestling-based style leads to him exposing his back when changing positions/escaping, and Sterling is a master at back takes.
Coupled with the extended layoff from Cejudo (over three years) and the advanced age for the division (36), I’m leaning toward Sterling here. However, the sheer volume of grappling exchanges should lead to a reasonable score for both fighters, making them a must to stack in cash games.
Action Network MMA Editor Dann Stupp and I arrived at similar conclusions for this fight, which we broke down on the latest Action Network UFC Betting Podcast:
Co-Main Event
Gilbert Burns ($8,200) vs. Belal Muhammad ($8,000)
We also have a rare non-title five-round co-main event at UFC 288, with top welterweights Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns squaring off for a promised title shot (following Leon Edwards against Colby Covington). This fight came together in less than two weeks, with the original co-main being scrapped at the last second.
Muhammad is on an eight-fight winning streak against increasingly difficult competition, culminating in a surprise knockout victory over Sean Brady in October. Prior to that, he had five straight decision wins in a row, most of which were relatively disappointing from a DFS standpoint.
Burns is a multiple-time jiu-jitsu world champion who’s had a busy 2023. This is already his third fight, following wins against Neil Magny and Jorge Masvidal. He’s 9-2 in his last 11, with the only losses coming to Khamzat Chimaev — in a very close fight that could’ve been scored his way — and a prime Kamaru Usman.
Burns is a -125 or so favorite here, making him the better value relative to his salary. I also think his busy schedule works in his favor this time. Given the lack of preparation time, he was probably closer to peak condition when the fight came together.
That’s a double-edged sword, though, as Muhammad may have been training just as hard — or Burns could be worn down from the frenetic schedule. I have no problem stacking this one for cash games, given the difficulty in picking a side, though I’m expecting less combined scoring than in the main event.
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The Easy Chalk
Movsar Evloev ($9,400)
Evloev has topped 130 DraftKings points in each of his last two fights, thanks to nine consecutive takedown performances. That made him a solid play against Bryce Mitchell as a -275 or so favorite.
Mitchell is out, though, with UFC newcomer — and Contender Series loser — Diego Lopes ($6,800) stepping in instead. Evloev’s price didn’t change, but his moneyline odds are now in the -1000 range.
That makes him a clear value with an ideal fighting style for DFS. He should be prioritized in all formats.
The Value Play
Virna Jandiroba ($7,700)
Truth be told, I don’t love many of the cheaper options on this week’s card. We can work around that to an extent thanks to close salaries on the five-round fighters but still need to save some salary somewhere.
Jandiroba is a reasonable option and is relatively cheap for her tight +115 moneyline odds. More importantly, this one is +150 to end inside the distance — giving her a solid floor if she can last all 15 minutes. In her three previous UFC losses — all decisions — she’s averaging 47 DraftKings points.
That’s a very solid number for a salary-saver option, with obvious upside if she pulls out a victory (or at least convinces two judges she did.) She’s the better finisher here for her fight against Marina Rodriguez ($8,500), with Rodriguez having just one stoppage victory in six UFC wins.
Jandiroba is more of a cash game salary relief piece for me than a GPP option, but she makes some sense in tournaments as well.
The Contrarian Choice
Joseph Holmes ($7,300)
Besides having one of the UFC’s best nicknames, “Ugly Man” also has about as favorable of a matchup as possible at UFC 288 against Claudio Riberio ($8,900). Riberio has an impressive overall record, but it was built against a string of much lower competition.
Riberio lost his UFC debut to another lower-tier UFC fighter and looked bad in the process, and I think Holmes has a shot of repeating that story. Holmes is 1-2 in the UFC but has at least shown an ability to win against UFC-quality competition.
The line has also moved his way somewhat, indicating that betting markets are in line with my way of thinking. Holmes has three inches in both height and reach and should also have the takedown upside here.
He’s at a major deficit in the power department, though, making the chances of an early Riberio victory somewhat high.
For that reason, I’ll be staying far away from Holmes for cash games but mixing him in some GPP lineups.
The Upside Play
Drew Dober ($9,200)
I covered this fight from a betting perspective already this week, and the likeliest outcome is extremely promising for DFS. That being a Drew Dober knockout, which is roughly -110, depending on the sportsbook.
Check out the breakdown for a more detailed look at both fighters, but the key takeaway is that this one should be an all-out brawl. With the huge points awarded for knockdowns (10) as well as quick finishes, that makes Dober an excellent play for both cash games and GPPs.
He also throws a high volume of strikes, so even if this one (somehow) makes it to the judges, Dober could end up with a strong score based on his strike totals. He’s an excellent option, and choosing between him and Evloev is a tough call, though the Dober fight is considerably more volatile.
The Swing Fight
Parker Porter ($8,600) vs. Braxton Smith ($7,600)
The lone heavyweight fight on the card features clear paths to a big score for both fighters, albeit very different paths. The favored Porter is a stalwart of “the other heavyweight division” — the mediocre giants who lack the skills to remain employed at lighter weight classes but continue to get booked due to the lack of heavyweight talent.
He’s 3-3 in that span, with all of his victories coming via decision. A rarity for a heavyweight, he’s a high-volume striker who lacks power, with zero knockdowns in the UFC but almost 6.5 significant strikes landed per minute. He’s topped 100 DraftKings points in two of his three wins, largely thanks to that volume.
Smith is making his UFC debut with the polar opposite profile. He’s won five straight fights since May of 2022, all of them by knockout. The longest fight in that span lasted just 123 seconds. While there isn’t much tape on him, it’s pretty clear from his record what he brings to the table. Of course, those fights were against very low-level competition.
That makes this a very binary fight, with Smith likely to come out guns blazing in an attempt to put Porter away early. If Porter survives the opening storm (and/or picks up a takedown), Smith is unlikely to have much left in the gas tank. Either way should be a strong score for the eventual winner.
I’m leaning toward Smith here, primarily due to the need to find salary relief on a card without a ton of appealing underdogs. Porter is the rightful favorite here, though, and is certainly a viable option as well. On what’s now a 12-fight card, I’ll be prioritizing getting one or the other in the bulk of my lineups.
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