One of the great modern MMA rivalries has it’s fourth overall chapter (second in the UFC, following a pair of kickboxing matches) as former champion Israel Adesanya looks to regain his title from his foe Alex Pereira. Adesanya was up 3-1 on the scorecards before being knocked out in the fifth round, and this could be his last chance at revenge. There’s a stacked 13-fight card overall, with the action kicking off at 6:00 p.m. Eastern.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Alex Pereira ($7,900) vs. Israel Adesanya ($8,300)
As mentioned in the intro, this is the fourth overall meeting between these two. The first two were in kickboxing, where Pereira won a close decision, then pulled off a late knockout in a fight he was losing the second time around. Their first UFC meeting was more of the same, with Adesanya nearly picking up the finish in the first round and carrying a 3-1 lead into the final frame. Yet again, Pereira pulled off the late comeback with a big 5th-round knockout.
How Adesanya chooses to approach this fight will be a big factor here. He could have a similar game plan to their last fight, except choose to get on his bicycle more in the late rounds if he builds up to a lead. Of course, that’s easier said than done with Pereira slowing him down with leg kicks.
He could also look to grapple more. He’s the far more experienced MMA fighter of the pair and was able to control some rounds in the last fight on the ground. This is also risky, though, as Pereira is much bigger and has been training nonstop with high-level grapplers in preparation for this fight.
The best outcome for DFS would be Adesanya hunting for an early finish, knowing he needs to put Pereira away before Pereira lands a big shot of his own. With what we know about Adesanya, this seems like the likeliest outcome as well. It’s a dangerous one, though, as Pereira has a massive power edge.
Ultimately, I expect the size, strength, and power of Pereira to rule the day one way or the other. He could even look to grapple offensively a bit more, as he was able to take Adesanya down in their last meeting. He’s still somehow a slight underdog despite a 3-0 record against Adesanya, making him the better deal on DraftKings.
This is the rare instance where I might not roster both fighters in cash as well. Adesanya isn’t a high-output striker, so a loss from him likely means a disappointing score. Stacking them together isn’t a bad play by any stretch, but if you have a strong read on either fighter, I’d suggest taking a stance.
Both Sean Zerillo and I see this one playing out the same way, as we discussed on the latest UFC Betting Preview from The Action Network:
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The Easy Chalk
There are three heavy favorites I’ll be mixing in my lineups this week. Obviously, playing all three together is incredibly challenging from a salary standpoint. I suspect most lineups will have two of the three, and choosing whom to exclude will be a crucial decision.
Gilbert Burns ($9,600)
“Durinho” is the biggest favorite on the card, as he takes on the ever-popular Jorge Masvidal ($6,600). Masvidal’s popularity exceeds his recent results, with an 0-3 skid since 2019. Burns is 2-2 in his last four, though his losses came to former champion Kamaru Usman (who also beat Masvidal twice) and Khamzat Chimaev. The fight against Chimaev was incredibly close, which was impressive considering the Chechnyan’s dominant run against everyone else he’s faced.
Burns is a former jiu-jitsu world champion who should have a massive edge in the grappling department. He’s also shown in recent fights (particularly against Chimaev) that his striking is solid as well. Burns’ is the far superior athlete at this point and should be the better fighter wherever this one takes place.
With that said, Burns has a slightly questionable chin, with the Usman loss being a knockout via “power jab” and a knockout loss as a lightweight to Dan Hooker. Masvidal’s best attribute has always been knockout power, so he has a puncher’s chance here.
Perhaps the bigger risk is that Burns utilizes a “wall and stall” strategy to avoid the power of Masvidal. That’s probably the shortest path to a victory here but would result in a score that’s disappointing relative to his salary. For that reason, Burns is my least favorite of the three fighters in this section, but it’s razor-close.
Ignacio Bahamondes ($9,400)
Bahamondes is now a -350 or so favorite against short-notice replacement Trey Ogden ($6,800) after his original opponent withdrew due to an injury.
Bahamondes is 3-1 in the UFC with three finishes, and his only loss was a semi-controversial split decision. Even in his loss, he put up a respectable 48 DraftKings points, thanks to his high-volume striking. Ogden is 1-1 in the UFC, though against an arguably lower level of competition than Bahamondes. While his loss was also a split decision, his lone win was far less inspiring as well.
Bahamondes lacks the takedown upside of the other top fighters on the slate but has the highest floor of the listed group. He’ll need a stoppage to crack the optimal lineup but has shown a history of finishing fights thus far in his UFC career.
Raul Rosas Jr. ($9,100)
The UFC’s 18-year-old wunderkind is my favorite of the $9,000 and up fighters this weekend, thanks to his massive grappling upside. He’s averaging over four takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC career, counting his Contender Series bout. While generally, I discount DWCS fights, his opponent (Mando Gutierrez) is an extremely high-level grappler himself who Rosas easily controlled.
He’s fighting Christian Rodriguez ($7,100), who’s a big step up in competition for Rosas. “C Rod” is 1-1 in the UFC and looked solid even in his loss against the more experienced Jonathan Pearce. However, Pearce was able to take him down six times on 10 attempts in that fight. Even in Rodriguez’s win, he was taken down twice by the since-released Joshua Weems.
Rodriguez has thus far been able to use his wrestling ability to get back to his feet — where he should have a noticeable striking edge against Rosas. However, in doing so, he tends to expose his back, and Rosas is excellent at back control and finding submissions from there.
While I’m high on Rodriguez as a prospect generally, he seems like the perfect opponent for Rosas. Especially from a DFS standpoint — either Rosas finishes early with a submission or Rodriguez scrambles up and allows for more takedown opportunities.
Rosas has a high floor and an astronomical ceiling here, making him my favorite fighter for all contest types.
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The Contrarian Choice
Luana Pinheiro ($8,600)
Generally, -165 favorites aren’t exactly contrarian options, but Pinheiro could go overlooked today. She’s taking on Michelle Waterson ($7,600), who has a tendency to slow fights down and not produce great DFS scores for herself or her opponent.
However, Pinheiro is a different kind of opponent. She’s aggressive with her standup, looking to swarm her opponent with wild strikes. While this would be a liability in larger weight classes, most strawweights — Waterson included — don’t really have the power to exploit Pinheiro’s defensive liabilities.
Pinheiro is also a high-level judoka who uses her swarming strikes to force clinches. From there, her repertoire of high-impact throws is on display. Pinheiro is less adept at keeping her opponent on the ground, but that’s a feature, not a bug for DFS. She’s giving herself more opportunities to pick up takedowns by letting her opponents up.
Pinheiro is a 10-1 professional whose only loss came via split decision — to a fellow future UFC fighter, no less. Waterson is 37 years old, with one win in the last four years, and that win was a split decision. The career arcs of these two are heading in polar opposite directions, and Pinheiro should have no problem taking the fight to Waterson here.
The Upside Play
Steve Garcia ($7,300)
Garcia has all of the stoppage upside for his fight against Shayilan Nuerdanbeike ($8,900), despite going off as a moderate underdog. Nuerdanbeike’s only UFC finish was due to an injury, where his opponent Darrick Minner came into the fight with a compromised knee. (That was the fight that launched the UFC’s insider betting scandal, as tons of money poured in on Nuerdanbeike in the hours leading up to the fight.)
Garcia is a “kill-or-be-killed” style fighter who wanders into the pocket with his chin high, ready to exchange bombs with his opponent. His average fight time in the Octagon is just over five minutes, and he’s scored 2.63 knockdowns per 15 in his UFC tenure.
Garcia is liable to be clipped at any time and possibly outwrestled by Nuerdanbeike. He does have 100% takedown defense in the UFC but in a fairly limited sample size. However, if he’s able to keep himself upright, he’s live to pick up a quick knockout here and far exceed his meager salary.
The Swing Fight
Joe Pyfer ($8,700) vs. Gerald Meerschaert ($7,500)
With -500 stoppage odds on a card with no other fight better than -200, this is a pretty clear choice for the “swing fight.” Joe Pyfer is a considerable favorite of -180 or so here, but this is a pretty high-variance fight. Pyfer should have a big striking edge, with seven of his ten professional wins coming via knockout.
However, Meerschaert is an underrated grappler with a history of late submissions snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. He’s live to do just that against Pyfer, a relatively green fighter who made his UFC debut in last September. Pyfer’s opponent for that fight has an 0-3 UFC record coming in, so it’s hard to feel confident in Pyfer’s ability against UFC-caliber competition.
The odds feel about right in this one, but there’s not an outcome (other than a decision) that would truly surprise me. I’ll be mixing in both fighters in my lineups, with a lean towards the favored Pyfer.
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