UFC 284 goes down in Australia, with Alexander Volkanovski attempting to claim a second title, this time against lightweight kingpin Islam Makhachev. Volkaovski is the consensus top pound-for-pound fighter in the world and could cement his status as an all-time great with a win over Makhachev.
We also have an interim featherweight championship between Yair Rodriguez and Josh Emmett, plus 11 other fights to get through. The action kicks off at 6:00 p.m. EST.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
As always, multiple five-round fights are an interesting strategic decision for UFC DFS. Particularly in cash games, where stacking both five-round fighters (when there’s only one) is the dominant strategy. For UFC 284, the main event is -175 to end inside the distance, while the co-main is one of just three bouts favored to see the judges
In theory, at least, that makes stacking the co-main event while picking one fighter in the main (likely Makhachev, the prohibitive favorite) the logical strategy. However, That makes things difficult from a salary standpoint at Makhachev’s price. Additionally, Volkanovski has a high work rate that could lead to a reasonable price-considered floor even in a loss.
Thus, I’ll likely be stacking both fights this time out, but I’m considering trying to pick a winner in the co-main.
Islam Makhachev ($9,500) vs. Alexander Volkanovski ($6,700)
This is an epic fight from an interest standpoint, with the top two pound-for-pound fighters in the world squaring off. Volkanovski has entirely cleaned out the 145lbs division, so stepping up to 155 is the last remaining challenge for him. Makhachev is the heir apparent to Khabib Nurmagomedov, winning the belt his mentor once had with a dominant performance over Charles Oliveira in his last fight.
Both men have just one career loss. Volkanovski’s came as a welterweight nearly ten years ago, while Makhachev was knocked out in his second UFC fight in 2015. To say they’ve both been dominant is an understatement, albeit with somewhat differing styles.
Volkanovski wins with striking volume and pressure, overwhelming opponents with strikes while rarely being hit himself. His positive 3.26 striking differential is frankly absurd for someone who’s fought the level of competition he has. Makhachev — in true Dagestani style — is a combat Sambo stylist who dominates opponents through grappling. It’s an easy comparison to Khabib, but I’d contend Makhachev is the better striker and worse grapple than Khabib.
This fight ultimately comes down to not whether Makhachev can take Volkanovski down but whether he can keep him there. Volkanovski has nearly instantly been able to get up against past opponents, though Makhachev is bigger and a better grappler than any of them.
However, I’m not counting on the size being a major factor here. Volkanovski is an extremely strong featherweight and fought as high as welterweight (170 lbs) as a professional. Makhachev isn’t a massive lightweight, and the gap between featherweight and lightweight is (proportionately) the smallest in the UFC.
There’s enough working for Volkanovski here that I want both men in cash games. For GPPs, I’ll mix in both but with a heavy lean toward the underdog. Stacking both is a viable tournament strategy, too, as Volkanovski’s ability to get up could lead to Makhachev racking up takedowns before being ultimately finished on the feet.
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Co-Main Event
Yair Rodriguez ($8,500) vs. Josh Emmett ($7,700)
Rodriguez vs. Emmett is for the interim 145 lbs title, a belt we apparently need because Volkanovski is fighting up a weight class. Even though he said he wants to defend both belts should he win…but I digress.
Worthiness as a title fight notwithstanding, this is still a fun fight between two active strikers. Rodriguez has a taekwondo background and mixes flashy kicks in with his strikes. Emmett is a power puncher and wrestler who generally uses the threat of his wrestling to hunt big shots to the body and head.
This is a tough fight to break down, as Rodriguez has just two fights since 2019. One was a domination by Max Holloway (who would do the same to Emmett, to be fair), and the other a win over Brian Ortega. However, the Ortega win came when ORtega’s shoulder popped out while defending an arm bar. One could argue Rodriguez caused the injury, but it’s closer to being a fluke in my book than the result of an intentionally applied technique.
Point is, we don’t have a ton of recent tape on Rodriguez. However, betting markets have started to slide his way. He opened around -160 but is as high as -190 on Friday. If that trend continues, I’ll be rostering Rodriguez and fading Emmett. In this era of insider information, it’s probably wise to follow the markets.
Otherwise, this fight is mostly attractive thanks to the five-round nature. It’s one of the less likely fights to end early based on betting lines, and neither man is a prolific takedown artist. If your lineups look better without either of them in it, it’s totally fine to pass here.
The Easy Chalk
Jack Jenkins ($9,300)
Jenkins has the best combination of moneyline (-345) and stoppage (-225) odds on the card. There are fights more likely to be stopped, but picking a winner is harder. There are more heavily favored fighters who could grind out decisions. I’m big on Jenkins as a prospect, and a bout against 0-1 in the UFC Don Shainis ($6,900) on home territory is an ideal UFC debut.
There are compelling reasons to fade all of the other expensive fighters on the card, but it’s hard to come up with one for Jenkins. I’m all in.
Jack Della Maddalena ($9,200)
Maddalena also has solid odds for UFC 284, but unlike Jenkins, they’ve moved slightly against him. He has a challenging matchup against welterweight stalwart Randy Brown ($7,000). While Brown has failed against truly elite competition, he’s a fixture in the back half of the UFC rankings and riding a four-fight win streak.
To Maddalena’s credit, he’s looked absolutely unbeatable in his UFC run. He’s 3-0, with each win a first-round knockout. He has dynamite in his hands and can put anybody out with one shot to the body or head.
I fully expect Maddalena to meet oddsmaker’s expectations and eventually pull out a win here. However, Brown’s awkward style, height/reach advantage, and ability to control the pace with grappling are concerns from a DFS standpoint.
While Maddalena is a safe bet for a solid score, at $9,200, he may not live up to his salary. Another quick knockout wouldn’t shock me, but a slower fight is also firmly in consideration. He’s a fine cash game choice if you have the salary, but he is not a lock to make the optimal lineup.
Sean Zerillo gave out Brown as a potential upset candidate — and I discussed how this one could be slower than the odds — on the latest episode of the Action Network Betting Podcast:
The Value Play
Melsik Baghdasaryan ($8,000)
Baghdasaryan has vacillated between being a slight favorite and a slight underdog to Josh Culibao ($8,200) all week. As it stands, he’s -115 on DraftKings at the time of writing. Either way, by virtue of DraftKings insistence on not pricing fighters equally, he becomes a value at $8,000.
I also think he’s the sharper side here against Culibao. This should be a pure striking matchup, with neither man attempting a takedown in their UFC careers. However, Baghdasaryan is the more credentialed striker, with professional experience in K-1 kickboxing as a pro boxer.
He’s got better power and is the more voluminous striker, both of which should play well to the judges. Culibao is also being overvalued by the market, with both UFC wins coming via decision (one split) and his loss coming by stoppage. Baghdasaryan has a fairly dominant decision win and a knockout in the UFC.
The upside is a bit limited here, as this one is +110 to end inside the distance. We need knockouts or takedowns to get to a truly elite score.
However, Baghdasaryan is an excellent price-considered play for cash games or smaller tournaments.
The Upside Plays
Justin Tafa ($8,400)
Tafa is facing Parker Porter ($7,800) in the only heavyweight bout on the card. With the big boys more likely to produce finishes, that should already have our attention. More importantly, Tafa’s style leads to either big scores or boring losses.
He’s 5-3 as a professional, with all five of his wins coming via knockout in the first two rounds. If his opponent survives the early going, it gets worse for Tafa. He’s lost both decisions he’s seen in his career, as well as suffering a knockout loss in his UFC debut. Contrast that with Porter, who’s the rare decision machine at heavyweight. All three of his UFC wins are thanks to the judge’s scorecards, while both of his losses were first-round stoppages.
Those to factors make Tafa’s potential outcomes pretty extreme here. Either he loses the fight, or he gets an early stoppage and a big score for his price tag. I’m staying far away in cash games, but he’s an excellent GPP option.
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The Swing Fights
Jimmy Crute ($8,600) vs. Alonzo Menifield ($7,600)
This one should be a doozy. With -500 odds to end inside the distance, someone is almost certainly picking up a stoppage bonus here. Under 1.5 rounds is even decently favored at -145, so the valuable first-round bonus is firmly in play here as well.
Menifield and Crute have ten UFC victories between them: nine have been stoppages, and eight of those within the first round. Both have big power, with Crute additionally having solid submission skills. Crute also has considerable durability issues, with all three of his professional losses being stoppages.
I actually think the underdog is the sharper side here, especially from a DFS standpoint. If either fighter wins late, it’s probably Crute. There’s a clearer path to him winning but not making the optimal lineup than there is for Menifield, who is questionable cardio means it’s first round or bust.
Betting lines have also moved Menifield’s way this week, seeing him go from +185 when salaries released to +160 at the time of writing. I wrote about this fight from a betting perspective earlier this week, with a further discussion on the styles of both men.
Whether or not you’re sold on one side or the other, it would be foolish to build lineups without having at least one of them in it though.
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