The card we’ve all been waiting for is here, with Islam Makhachev looking to fulfill his destiny as the heir to Khabib Nurmagomedov by taking the lightweight belt from Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira. We also have a bantamweight title fight, with T.J. Dillashaw being given an opportunity for a third separate title reign – if he can get through Aljamain Sterling.
This card is loaded from top to bottom, with 13 fights in total. Besides the challenges of having multiple title fights, it’s a tricky card from a DFS standpoint, without many huge favorites. We’ll break down some of the top options, with a nod to both cash games and GPPs below.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Islam Makhachev ($8,400) vs. Charles Oliveira ($7,800)
The betting lines – and thus DraftKings salaries – have Makhachev made out as a favorite here. It’s an understandable line for the Dagestani prospect, given all the hype around him. However, there’s certainly a compelling case to be made for Oliveira, as well.
Before we get into it, let’s start with the obvious: You should roster one of these two in every lineup. At -450, it’s the likeliest fight on the card to end early. Even if it doesn’t, that means we get 25 minutes of action. Both fighters have the ability to end it at any point, and they have upside in both striking and grappling exchanges.
With that out of the way, my lean is pretty firmly toward Oliveira in this one. He’s undoubtedly the better striker here. While some would knock him for being hurt on the feet in past contests, there are a couple of caveats to that. First, those all came against better – or at least more proven – strikers than Makhachev. Second, I’m unconvinced he was actually hurt. He seems to be playing possum much of the time, in order to lure the superior wrestlers to the ground – where he promptly submits them.
Makhachev is certainly the superior wrestler here. Oliveira has almost no shot of securing takedowns of his own, or stopping Makhachev’s. The real question is what happens once it hits the ground? Makhachev is obviously a high-level grappler, but Oliveira’s jiu-jitsu is world-class.
It’s hard to see Makhachev submitting Oliveira, which creates a tough situation for him. He needs to effectively win all 25 minutes (or at least 15 of them) on the ground, where “Chucky Olives” just needs to get the better of a single exchange and find a submission.
Outside of that, rostering Oliveira gives you more salary freedom, as well as likely lower ownership (full ownership projections will go live on Friday). He’s my preferred GPP option, though I’ll likely be rostering both fighters in cash.
I can see a case for taking a stand on one of these fighters in cash games – since we’ll want to play both co-main event fighters, and ideally we don’t want to guarantee two losses in our cash game lineups. In that case, Makhachev is my choice. Besides being likelier to win (according to betting markets), his floor is much higher. He could post a solid score via takedowns in a loss, where the bulk of Oliveira’s points are likely to come from a finish. If he doesn’t find one, his score will probably be very disappointing.
Co-Main Event
Aljamain Sterling ($8,500) vs. T.J. Dillashaw ($7,700)
As per usual on UFC PPVs, we have a second title – and thus five-round – fight on the card. My expectations, and our projections, are fairly clear on the relative merits of these two fights. The main event winner will likely have the highest score of the foursome while this fight will produce more total scoring.
For starters, at +140 it’s likely this one makes it a full 25 minutes. Both men are very active strikers, attempting a combined 120 strikes per round compared to just 65 between the main event fighters. They also attempt takedowns at a higher rate, and unlike Oliveria, neither will be content to play off his back.
That means there are more opportunities for repeated takedowns, with both fighters attempting to scramble back to their feet. Dillashaw is probably the better striker here, so he especially will want the fight to remain standing.
I’d give the edge to Sterling on the ground, with the deciding factor surrounding his ability to get it there. He’s made a habit of finding unique ways to initiate grappling against superior wrestlers, and that’s the likeliest outcome here.
Additionally, Dillashaw has had just one fight since his two-year suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. It was a somewhat uninspiring split-decision win over Cory Sandhagen, in which Dillashaw was outstruck in three of the five rounds. He also attempted a whopping 19 takedowns, landing just two of them.
This fight is a fairly close contest based on a somewhat generous reading of Dillashaw’s post-PED violation skills. If much of his earlier success was a result of an illegal advantage, Sterling is the clear better fighter here. Thus, I’ll be much heavier on “Funkmaster” in GPPs, though I feel fairly confident playing both in cash games.
The Easy Chalk
Muhammad Mokaev ($9,600)
The UFC is pretty high on Mokaev, the 22-year-old Dagestani-born wrestling champion. He’s opened his career with bouts against Cody Durden (1-1 UFC record), Charles Johnson (debut against Mokaev) and now Malcom Gordon ($6,600), who has a 2-2 UFC record coming in.
While this is a slight step up in competition, this is still a fight booked with the intention of getting Mokaev another win. He’s a ridiculous -1150 in this one, with the line continuing to rise from the -730 it was earlier in the week. Thanks to the nature of the DraftKings pricing, he’s only slightly more expensive than the other heavy favorites on the card – but with a huge gap in the betting lines.
He also has a fantasy-friendly style, racking up 12 takedowns in his last outing. It’s hard to see him not having a big score here: either he finishes Gordon early, or he continuously takes him down. Both end up with a big number. The best case for not playing him is simply leverage, as he’s likely to be the slate’s most popular fighter.
Petr Yan ($9,300)
Yan will probably be the second-most-popular three-round fighter, but with a wide gulf between him and Mokaev. Yan is “only” a -265 favorite against Sean O’Malley ($6,900), with the line moving slightly toward O’Malley this week.
Yan is a deserved favorite based on resumes. Until recently, he was firmly within the conversation of top pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Then he lost twice to Sterling, once via DQ and once via split decision. Now he’s fighting O’Malley, who’s ranked outside of the top 10 in their division.
All of that makes this sound like a walkthrough for Yan. However, stylistically O’Malley matches up fairly well with the former champion. He has five inches in reach advantage, a solid jab, and has never really been hurt with head strikes. O’Malley’s weaknesses are leg kicks and wrestling, neither of which are Yan’s forte; Tapology lists his foundational style as boxing for a reason.
With that said, Yan certainly could exploit those weaknesses if he chooses here. He also could win this one even if it’s just a striking match. A stoppage isn’t very likely though, with this one +130 to end early. Therefore, it’s hard to see Yan paying off his salary even with a win, and there’s too much risk that he doesn’t win for my tastes.
I’ll mix a bit of him in for GPP lineups but will likely be below the field. O’Malley is intriguing since he likely finds his way in the optimal with any win. His cheap salary also opens up a lot of lineup-building opportunities. However, his name recognition probably drives ownership up a bit, so I won’t be going out of my way to force him into lineups either.
The Value Play
Katlyn Chookagian ($7,300)
Let me start with this: Chookagian is a terrible GPP play. Just one of her 11 UFC wins has gone over 82 points, and she’s a sizable underdog against Manon Fiorot ($8,900).
However, she’s an intriguing option for cash games. This fight has the longest stoppage odds on the slate at +215, so she’s likely to get 15 minutes to work regardless of how she’s doing. She’s also a very active striker, landing more than 4.5 significant strikes per minute.
With Fiorot also being primarily a striker, Chookagian has a solid stirkes-based floor here, but an extremely limited ceiling. I prefer the floor/ceiling combination of the title fight underdogs for cash games. If you feel strongly about fading either of them though, “Blonde Fighter” (easily the worst nickname in the UFC) is a reasonable choice who saves a few hundred in salary.
The Contrarian Approach
Beneill Dariush ($7,400)
The DraftKings salary and betting line on Dariush is downright disrespectful. He’s a +160 underdog to Mateusz Gamrot ($8,800) despite a seven-fight winning streak that includes four finishes.
Not too long ago, we were talking about Dariush vs. Makhachev for the next shot at the title. That got derailed due to a Dariush ankle injury, leading to the position we’re in now. Prior to that, he looked nearly unbeatable in his seven-fight run.
Gamrot is a rising star in the division who last fought against Arman Tsarukyan in June. While Gamrot won a unanimous decision, it was a fairly controversial five-round fight that easily could’ve gone the other way. Had the judges seen things differently, Gamrot would likely be the underdog to Dariush.
Gamrot benefited from his five-round experience against Tsarukyan, winning Round 3-5 after dropping the first two. That’s not an issue here, with this bout scheduled for just three rounds. Dariush is (statistically) the better striker here, so if he’s able to neutralize Gamrot’s grappling, he could have an edge.
This is another awesome DFS fight, though, with both men excellent grapplers. Neither is likely to accept being put on his back, so the winner of this one likely ends up with a huge score. The salary and leverage on Dariush make him too good to pass up, but I’ll have exposure to both fighters.
The Upside Plays
Armen Petrosyan ($9,100)
Petrosyan had about as tough of a welcome to the UFC as anyone, starting his career with bouts against Gregory Rodrigues and Caio Borralho. He split the pair, getting the decision against Rodrigues but losing it to Borralho.
He gets a bit of a reprieve this time, taking on A.J. Dobson ($7,100). Dobson is 0-1 in the UFC, with a decision loss to Jacob Malkoun in his debut. This fight sets up nicely for Petrosyan, who’s an excellent striker but struggled with Borralho’s grappling.
Dobson is also a striker but barely outstruck the grappling-focused Malkoun in his debut. Petrosyan has an outstanding work rate, landing more than six significant strikes per minute in his two UFC fights. His lack of takedown upside isn’t ideal for DFS though, so he needs a finish to post a good score.
Fortunately, he’s -105 to win this one inside the distance. While I’d prefer to play Mokaev for just $500 more, Petrosyan is an interesting option to mix into GPP builds.
Nikita Krylov ($8,600)
There’s no heavyweight fight at UFC 280 and just one light heavyweight fight. That’s Krylov against Volkan Oezdemir ($7,600). Bigger fighters are better for DFS as a general rule, and the betting lines for this one explain why. At -250, this is one of the likelier fights to end inside the distance.
While I don’t have a strong take on which fighter is the right side of it, the betting lines feel about right. Krylov is at -175, and the line has moved his way since salaries were released. Oezdemir’s only win in the last 2.5 years was a weird fight against Paul Craig in which the latter refused to engage, and he’s been unimpressive generally since his knockout loss to Jiri Prozchaka.
On the other hand, Krylov’s only win in that time frame came against a completely washed Alexander Gustafsson, so there are questions about both men. Still, Krylov’s losses didn’t include a brutal knockout, and he’s younger with a reach advantage. I want exposure to both, but I’ll be prioritizing Krylov here.
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The Swing Fight
Sean Brady ($8,200) vs. Belal Muhammad ($8,000)
This is another fight with which the best way to describe the betting line is disrespectful. Muhammad is on a 3.5-year, seven-fight winning streak, mostly against top competition. Brady is 5-0 in the UFC, but his only fight against a high-level opponent came against Michael Chiesa.
Still, that doesn’t mean Brady can’t get the better of this matchup, but based on resume, Muhammad should be favored. Both fighters are primarily grapplers, combining to average over 5.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. Muhammad is probably the better pure wrestler, with Brady having the edge in jiu-jitsu.
Thus, the fight could come down to who is the better striker. Brady was outstruck 29-18 against Chiesa and looked generally outclassed on the feet. Muhammad tends to not engage in striking exchanges to begin with, so there are questions surrounding him too.
Hopefully, both men go to their A game and we see lots of wrestling exchanges. That would produce a big DFS score for one or both of them. My lean is toward Muhammad, but it’s 60/40 at best. Getting this fight right could be the key to the slate.
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