Welterweight kingpin Kamaru Usman puts his belt on the line against Leon Edwards on Saturday, a rematch of their 2015 bout. Usman won a decision that time, but a lot has changed in the nearly seven years since. The action kicks off at 6 p.m. ET on Saturday.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Kamaru Usman ($9,100) vs. Leon Edwards ($7,100)
UFC 278 features only one title fight, a departure from the UFC’s recent format of two championship bouts on their PPV cards. That will have implications for DFS, as the odds of the winner of the main event ending up in the optimal lineup go up.
Usman is a fairly large favorite here, at -250 against Leon Edwards. The pair fought back in 2015, with Usman coasting to a fairly dominant decision. While the fight wasn’t the most exciting from an action standpoint, Usman managed to score 114 DraftKings points in a three-round bout, courtesy of six takedowns.
Both fighters have come a long way since then, with Usman’s striking in particular improving by leaps and bounds. Edwards has improved on his grappling as well, his win over Rafael Dos Anjos was particularly impressive in that department, stopping all five of RDA’s takedowns.
Still, despite the changes since the last fight, I still view this as Edwards having the edge on the feet, and Usman being the superior grappler. The striking is a lot closer than the grappling though: Usman winning the fight on the feet feels far more likely than Edwards out wrestling Usman.
That makes Usman the clear stronger play here. He’s scored at least 100 points in seven straight fights, so even at his somewhat inflated salary it’s hard to see him failing. As always, I’ll be rostering both guys in cash games though. With this fight listed at -150 to go the distance, Edwards should put up a usable score even in a loss while opening up salary for the rest of your lineup.
The Easy Chalk
Tyson Pedro ($9,500)
Whatever Tyson Pedro pays his management, it’s not enough. After being out of the Octagon for more than four years, Pedro returned in April to fight Ike Villanueva (1-4 UFC record). This time, he’s taking on Harry Hunsucker ($6,700) who is 0-2 in the UFC, and has yet to see the two minute mark in a fight.
Pedro is naturally a massive favorite, between -730 and -900 odds depending on sportsbook. He’ll be an extremely popular DFS option as well, with this one expected to end early. Pedro is -225 to pick up the win in the first round.
I do want to temper expectations a bit though. Hunsucker’s UFC losses came to Tai Tuivasa — who knocks out everybody — and Justin Tafa. Hunsucker weighed in at “just” 238.5 for the Tafa bout, with Tafa missing the heavyweight limit of 265 pounds.
That means Hunsucker was likely at least 50 pounds smaller than Tafa come fight time. This bout is at 205 pounds, and he’s not surrendering nearly as much size to Pedro. Pedro should still be able to get the job done, but Hunsucker’s chin probably holds up a bit better in more appropriately-sized matchups.
Either way, I’ll be exposed to some Pedro in this one. His salary — and the lower work rates of heavier fighters — means he probably needs to get it done in the first round to make the optimal lineup. With his odds to do just that, he’s an extremely tough fade.
Alexander Romanov ($9,000)
Romanov is a roughly -350 favorite to keep his undefeated pro record alive, as he takes on Marcin Tybura ($7,200) in the featured prelim bout. He’s 5-0 in the UFC, and outside of a decision win against Juan Espino, all of those wins have came inside the distance.
Tybura’s opponents have had no match for his grappling so far, with three submission wins and one via ground and pound. He has fought somewhat lower-level competition to this point in his career, though, with Tybura representing a significant step up in competition.
Tybura is a game UFC veteran, who was riding a five fight UFC win streak before dropping a decision to Alexander Volkov the last time out. Tybura prefers to grapple as well, but was unsuccessful on 16 (!) takedown attempts against Volkov.
It will be interesting to see which fighter in this one initiates the grappling, and who has the edge this time. My suspicion is that Romanov is the better grappler, but it wouldn’t shock me if he used that defensively the way Volkov did. I do think the grappling is closer than the betting markets imply, though.
That gives me a bit of pause at Romanov’s salary. He scored just 67 points in his decision win against Espino, and is heavily dependent on a finish to get to a score that sees him land in the optimal lineup. He’s a very safe play, but not one I’m confident in posting a massive score.
That has me preferring him in cash games more than GPPs, but I certainly see the argument for playing him in both.
The Upside Plays
Victor Altamirano ($8,600)
Altamirano is taking on Daniel Da Silva ($7,600) in flyweight action on Saturday. This one has unusually high stoppage odds for a flyweight bout, at -250 to end early.
Both fighters are winless in the UFC, with Altamirano dropping a razor-close split decision, and Da Silva suffering two stoppage losses. Altamirano has a path to a huge score even without finishing Da Silva though. Counting his bout on the Contender Series, he’s landed just under six strikes per minute in his UFC career.
He also mixes in grappling, with 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in those two bouts. With Da Silva being submitted in one of his losses, Altamirano could go back to that well, which would be ideal from a DFS standpoint.
This is a tough fight for cash games, with two winless (in official UFC bouts) competitors squaring off. It’s a solid GPP option though, thanks to the frantic pace we should see, and the long odds it ends early.
Paulo Costa ($8,700)
Costa is welcoming Luke Rockhold ($7,500) back to the Octagon, with Rockhold taking more than three years off after suffering knockout losses to Jan Blachowicz and Yoel Romero in his last two fights. Rockhold is a former middleweight champion, with Costa falling short to Israel Adesanya in his attempt at capturing the title.
The long layoff and recent track record for Rockhold have Costa as a big favorite in this one. He’s now around -360 after opening around -290, making him a tremendous value relative to his DraftKings price. His upside comes from the chances he gets this one done early though.
Rockhold’s chin appeared fairly suspect in his recent fights, and at 37 it seems unlikely to have improved. On the other hand, three years out of the cage could help in that area. Still, the ring rust likely hurts him more than the recovery helps him, and Costa is -165 to win inside the distance on DraftKings.
If he’s able to do so, his DFS score will be a must-have at $8,700. He’s a strong play in all contest types on Saturday.
The Value Plays
Jay Perrin ($7,700)
Perrin is checking all of the boxes I look for in my cheap cash game play for UFC 278. At +130, his bout against Aoriqileng ($8,500) has the third-best odds to last the distance on Saturday. The line has also moved in Perrin’s favor. He’s dropped from +140 early in the week to +115 now — a great deal at his salary.
Perrin is 0-1 in the UFC, with a decision loss to Mario Bautista in his debut. Aoriqileng dropped decisions in his first two OCtagon appearances, before finishing Cameron Else his last time out. These are lower-level Bantamweights that both fight at a fairly high pace, so as long as it lasts the full 15, Perrin’s score should be reasonable even without the win bonus.
He also has some sneaky grappling upside, picking up two against Bautista in his debut. If he’s able to pick up a few more on Saturday, he could approach a “have to have it” score against Qileng.
Wu Yanan ($7,900)
Yanan also fits the bill of the classic cheap option for cash games. At +230, her fight against Lucie Pudilova ($8,300) has the longest odds on the card to see the judges. Yanan is now +100 to win this one, after opening around +125 when salaries came out.
That makes a clear case for her as a strong value at only $7,900 on DraftKings, with the likeliest outcome being a close decision one way or the other. She’s averaging over 40 points in her three most recent fights — all decision losses.
There’s not a ton of upside here, but 40+ points is a very strong floor for Yanan. She’s a solid complement to Perrin in cash games if trying to fit two of the more expensive fighters in your lineup.
The Contrarian Approach
Francisco Figueiredo ($7,000)
Francisco Figueiredo — younger brother of flyweight champ Deiveson — is one of the more finish-dependent fighters on the card Saturday. He’s had major issues keeping up his output deeper into fights, while aggressively hunting finishes early on. Even in his lone UFC decision win against Jerome Rivera, he lost the third round on all three judges scorecards.
That makes him an interesting play for DFS, as he’s likely to post a big score if he’s able to pull of the upset on Saturday. He’s a significant (+370) underdog, but stylistically it could be a good fight for him. He’s fighting Amir Albazi ($9,200), a fairly aggressive grappler.
Figueiredo has excellent jiu-jitsu, so if this finds it’s way to the mat an early submission is well within the realm of possibility. That makes him an excellent GPP option, and one that should come at very low ownership.
The Swing Fight
Merab Dvalishvili ($8,200) vs. Jose Aldo ($8,000)
Former champion Jose Aldo is having quite the late-career renaissance. I had personally written him off as washed, following a three-fight losing streak in 2019 and 2020. Since then, he’s rattled off wins over Chito Vera, Rob Font, and Pedro Munhoz to reinsert himself into the title discussion.
Also in the contender category is Merab Dvalishvili. “The Machine” is a perfect 5-0 in his UFC career, with his wins coming against increasingly stiff competition. He’s a relentless grappler who averages a ridiculous 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC run.
That makes this a fairly classic “striker vs. grappler” matchup. I lean towards the grappler in those circumstances most of the time, but Aldo gives me pause. He has a 90% takedown defense rate in his UFC career, all against the top of the division(s). Since Aldo came into the UFC as a champion (following the acquisition of the WEC), his strength of schedule is one of the strongest in the sport.
I’m leaning Aldo’s way in this one as a slight underdog, but both fighters are strong plays. Aldo’s striking volume and Dvalishvili’s grappling both give clear path’s towards upside, while providing solid floor (on a per-minute basis at least.)
It’s unfortunate this fight is only scheduled for three rounds, as a five-round bout between these two would be a perfect stacking option. As it stands, I’ll have a ton of exposure to both fighters, but make it a point to be over the field on Aldo in particular.
Photo Credit: Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC
Pictured above (L-R): Kamaru Usman of Nigeria and Leon Edwards
