With two title fights and a massive 15-fight card, UFC 274 promises a great night for DFS. The lightweight title fight between Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira and Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje is the main event, with “Thug” Rose Namajunas defending her title against Carla Esparza in the co-main. It all kicks off at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Five-Round Fights
With multiple title fights on the card, we have some interesting strategy decisions to make. While we generally want as much exposure to five-rounders as possilbe in cash, playing all four title fighters guarantees our lineup has two losses. While that’s not inherently bad (see Rob Font’s performance in a five-round loss last week as an example), it’s not ideal either.
My preferred strategy is to get three of the four fighters, likely omitting Esparza (the heaviest underdog). However, depending on the rest of the build, Esparza could be the best remaining option at her price range. Either way, I’ll break down both title fights from a DFS perspective.
Charles Oliveira ($8,500) vs. Justin Gaethje ($7,700)
With -500 odds to end inside the distance, this is probably a fight we want exposure to one way or the other. The line has moved a bit in Oliveira’s favor, making him a solid value for his salary. Gaethje, of course, has tons of finishing upside, and a stoppage win should be more than enough to get him into the optimal — even on a 15-fight card.
Gaethje has at least 100 points in all of his UFC wins, with the one exception being a 93-point performance his last time out. Oliveira carries a bit more risk of a disappointing win, though. He only scored 69 points in his submission win over Kevin Lee and finished under 100 in three of his last four. Each time, he scored in the 90s. His heavy submission style isn’t as strong for fantasy purposes as Gaethje’s striking.
Given the number of fights on this card, a 90ish-point score for Oliveira probably keeps him out of the optimal at $8,500. That makes me more interested in Gaethje for tournaments, and he should also come in lower owned. There are also scenarios where neither man makes the optimal, so fading this fight entirely has some merit — though I doubt I do so myself. I’ll likely have one or the other main event fighter in every lineup, with a slight lean towards the underdog.
Oliveira ranks just eighth in ceiling projection and fourth in median on the slate. Gaethje is third in both ceiling and Pts/Sal projection.
Update: With Oliveira missing weight, he’s no longer eligible to retain his title, though Gaethje can still win it. (The title would be vacant if Oliveira wins the fight.) It’s highly likely that Oliveira was truly depleted to his limit, given the stakes involved with him missing weight. This should be a huge advantage for Gaethje, as being dehydrated has a negative impact on a fighter’s durability and stamina. Assuming this fight still takes place, I plan on being much heavier on Gaethje than I initially thought.
Rose Namajunas ($8,900) vs. Carla Esparza ($7,300)
This is a rematch nearly eight years in the making and one I covered from a betting angle for Action Network. As a quick recap, I expect Namajunas to retain her belt here, as she’s the far more improved fighter since the last time these two women met in the cage.
Namajunas is a near-must for cash games, as a -200 or so favorite in a five-round fight. She has a ton of power for the division and has essentially all of the finishing upside in this one. However, Esparza is my preferred GPP play, with similar logic as the main event.
Rose could certainly win the fight and fall outside of the optimal lineup, where that’s not the case with Esparza. The likeliest outcome for Esparza is a fairly disappointing score, with Rose out-pointing her standing. However, if she can score some takedowns, she could rack up a big score in a hurry. Esparza topped 100 points in three of her last four fights (all three round contests), with 12 total takedowns in those three fights.
That gives Esparza a ton of price-considered upside for GPPs, and I also expect her to be lower owned than Rose. I want to be overweight on her versus the field but will have some lineups with Rose, as well as a few with neither fighter.
The Easy Chalk
Michael Chandler ($9,600)
“Iron” Mike Chandler (how original) opened as the heaviest favorite on the card, though he now sits just behind Andre Fiahlo ($9,500) thanks to some line movement. Either way, he’s still a good value relative to his odds. Chandler picks up most of his wins in the first round, with his last three victories coming in the first frame (two in Bellator).
He has tremendous punching power and also brings some wrestling upside against Tony Ferguson ($6,600), who has lost three straight fights. Ferguson is 38 years old and could just be completely washed here — though his losses were all against top competition.
Regardless, Chandler is probably the most likely first-round and first-minute winner on the slate, given his style. Ferguson should be a willing dance partner, too, with his tendency to get into brawls while ignoring any grappling. Chandler leads our projection for ceiling and trails only Fiahlo in median projection.
Andre Fiahlo ($9,500)
It’s fairly difficult to fit both Chandler and Fiahlo, but Fiahlo might just be the better cash game option. He has the longest odds of any fighter on the slate, as he takes on newcomer Cameron VanCamp ($6,700). VanCamp looks to be a submission grappler but has lost most of his fights against UFC-level competition.
Fiahlo needs a finish to pay off his massive salary, and this fight is -300 to end inside the distance. I don’t think he’s as likely as Chandler to get it done early, though, making Chandler my preference for GPPs. Still, Fiahlo is a solid choice for tournaments and might carry lower ownership thanks to the lack of name recognition relative to Chandler.
The Upside Plays
Khaos Williams ($8,300)
“The Oxfighter” is one of the most physically gifted fighters in the UFC, with long limbs, tremendous strength, and punching power. He’s finished three of his four UFC wins by knockout, with the sole survivor being the always-durable Matthew Semelsberger. This time, he takes on Randy “Rude Boy” Brown ($7,900).
This fight is a near pick ’em in betting markets, with Williams having most of the finishing upside and Brown the better minute-winner. But upside is the name of the game, and Khaos brings tons of it. His knockdown rate is nearly three times the UFC average, while simultaneously throwing above-average volume.
“Rude Boy” also has some durability concerns, having been knocked out by Vicente Luque and (more concernedly) finished with hammerfists from the bottom by Niko Price. I’d be willing to bet at -10,000 odds that Khaos hits harder standing than Price does from his back, so he could get it done here.
The line has moved against Williams throughout the week, making him a poor choice for cash games. He’s one of my favorite GPP fighters on the slate though and has a 95-point ceiling projection in our models.
Danny Roberts ($8,000)
Roberts is the cheaper fighter in this fight, despite being the very slight (-105) favorite against Francisco Trinaldo ($8,200). Roberts has plus power, with three of his seven UFC victories coming by way of knockout, and an additional submission win. He has an above-average knockdown rate and is the much bigger fighter with four inches of height and reach over Trinaldo.
My real interest is based on Trinaldo’s advanced age though. While he’s been very durable in his 10-year UFC career, everyone is durable — until they aren’t. We’ve seen plenty of aging fighters lose their chins all at once, including Donald Cerrone, who’s opening the main card tonight.
When you consider Robert’s submission upside as well, he has a solid chance of getting this done early. He’s also a strong value based on being the cheaper fighter despite being favored, so he’s a solid cash game play. We likely need a finish even at his salary given all the likely stoppages on the card, but he won’t totally tank your lineup with a boring win either.
The Value Play
Melissa Gatto ($7,500)
Gatto is a slight (+120) underdog for her bout against Tracy Cortez ($8,700), with that line dropping from the +150 it opened at when salaries were released. That makes her a great value in terms of win equity per dollar at current odds, but I think she should actually be the favorite here.
She’s clearly the better striker, with both of her UFC wins coming via (T)KO, including breaking Victoria Leonardo’s arm with a kick. Cortez is favored based on her wrestling, which she’s ridden to three submission victories in three UFC bouts. (She also won her Contender Series match by decision.)
That’s dangerous against Gatto though, who also has excellent submission skills. Gatto submitted Karol Rosa — who’s now 3-1 in the UFC — by kimura prior to their UFC debuts. All of her pre-UFC finishes came via submission, and she has an excellent guard game.
That makes her the better fighter in two of the three phases (striking, wrestling, and grappling), with finishing upside wherever the fight goes. She’s my favorite cheap fighter and is a great cash game option since she’s unlikely to be finished herself even if she does lose.
The Contrarian Approach
Joe Lauzon ($7,400)
Lauzon hasn’t fought in over two and a half years since he picked up a first-round win over Jonathon Pearce (who’s since won three straight fights). Even with the long layoff, he’s still won a fight more recently than his opponent, Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone ($8,800).
Cerrone is winless (with one draw) in six straight bouts, suffering four knockout losses along the way. That’s a terrible sign for a 39-year-old with 50 fights under his belt. Cerrone, at his best, was insanely durable, getting into all-out brawls. It’s hard to change that style, even once your chin departs. While Lauzon isn’t a heavy hitter historically, he should have the pop to put Cowboy away here.
The layoff might actually work in Lauzon’s favor, given the advanced age and durability concerns on both fighters. At the very least, he hasn’t spent that time getting knocked out (barring absolutely criminal training methods) unlike Cerrone. This fight has the longest odds outside of the main event to end inside the distance, and I actually think Lauzon should be favored here.
Any win is probably enough for Lauzon to end up in the optimal, but a finish certainly will be. I like him to get it done, and Sean Zerillo expects it to happen inside the distance, as we discussed on the latest edition of our UFC Betting Podcast:
The Swing Fight
Ovince St. Preux ($9,200) vs. Shogun Rua ($7,000)
Besides Cerrone-Lauzon, we have another fight with aging veterans on the main card. OSP is just past 39, with Shogun being on the wrong side of 40. Both men lost their most recent fights by knockout, with OSP having two such defeats in a row. As such, this bout has -225 odds to end inside the distance, tied for the longest among three-round fights.
St. Preux is the heavy favorite at -240 or so, but the range of outcomes is very wide here. These two actually met back in 2014, with Rua winning by knockout in 34 seconds. Shogun should still be the better striker this time around. He has better offensive and defensive striking rates, with OSP taking more than he gives in his UFC career.
St. Preux has looked to wrestle in his recent bouts, and will likely do the same here. I expect him to be the much bigger fighter on Saturday night, which will be a problem for Rua if OSP gets on top. Either way, the likeliest outcome is somebody ends up unconscious fairly quickly here.
I prefer the underdog for tournaments since Rua should carry far less ownership. OSP could also pick up a submission and still have a disappointing score. I want exposure to both fighters in tournaments though, given the long stoppage odds.
