The best card of the year is here. Two title fights, plus the hotly anticipated return of uncrowned champion Khamzat Chimaev lead the card. There’s a full 13 fights of action, though, and plenty of DFS angles to get into. The action begins at 6:00 p.m. eastern time.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Main Event
Alexander Volkanovski ($9,500) vs. Chan Sung-Jung ($6,700)
This is one of the more lopsided fights we’ve seen on paper in a long time. Normally, that creates a situation where fading the favorite makes sense — it’s hard to pay off a $9,500 salary. However, I don’t think that’s the case this time.
Volkanovski pushes a very aggressive pace in his fights, striking and grappling at an above-average level. Jung also isn’t nicknamed “The Korean Zombie” because of his slick defense. His 55% striking defense isn’t as bad as his reputation implies, but his all-action forward charging style creates a lot of scoring for both fighters.
Volkanovski thus leads our projections in every category, with a floor projection that would rank second in median. He’s clearly a must for cash games, but I’m willing to eat the ownership in GPPs as well.
I will be looking to roster Jung in any lineup where I fade Volk though. It’s incredibly difficult for this fight to play out in a way that this fight doesn’t factor into the optimal lineup. If you’re looking for leverage by fading Volkanovski, might as well go all in and roster his opponent. We could also see a situation where even if Jung loses, he puts up enough points to find the optimal. (Particularly if the card overall is light on finishes.)
Stacking them makes sense both in cash games and if multi entering tournaments.
The Co-Main Event
Petr Yan ($9,300) vs. Aljamain Sterling ($6,900)
With the co-main event set to unify the 135-lbs title — and being a five-round fight — it’s worthy of its own section this week. Petr Yan is the massive (-435) favorite to regain his Bantamweight crown against Aljamain Sterling, who “defeated” Yan by disqualification in their first bout.
However, the first fight was closer than the prevailing narrative implies. Sterling outstruck Yan 97-86, though Yan landed the more impactful shots. Sterling struggled in the wrestling department, though. He’s normally a grappler by nature but landed only one takedown compared to seven for Yan.
Yan seems like the smash play here, all things considered. However, Sterling was apparently suffering from a severe neck injury before their last bout (which has since been corrected by surgery). If he’s truly back to 100%, he could show why he was a slight favorite heading into their first fight.
Sterling also provides a solid floor for cash games. Yan is generally a slow starter, and Sterling’s high-volume, low-impact style of striking can add up even in a losing effort. (Florida judges are also known for being mostly recycled from boxing. A “touch ’em up” style could conceivably lead to an undeserved decision for Sterling.)
That makes Sterling a reasonable cash game play, with a chance for some GPP upside. He has the best median projection of any fighter under $8,000, so he deserves at least a sniff if making multiple lineups.
The Easy Chalk
Khamzat Chimaev ($9,400)
Chimaev may be the first UFC fighter ever discussed as a potential two-division champion before he fights a top-10 fighter. “Borz” burst onto the scene with two dominant performances in 10 days at fight island and is now 4-0 in the UFC. All by finish, and with a combined one significant strike absorbed.
It’s hard to overstate how good he’s been. However, it’s came against far lesser competition than he faces this time. He’ll be across the Octagon from Gilbert Burns, a perennial contender who’s essentially cleaned out the division behind champion Kamaru Usman.
Burns also represents a stylistic challenge for Chimaev. All of Chimaev’s past opponents have been clearly inferior grapplers. His only ranked opponent (Jingliang Li) has never attempted a takedown in the UFC. Burns, though, is a former world grappling champion.
Chimaev could look to keep this fight standing then, as he’s looked very strong striking as well. Burns is no slouch there either though, with plus power and solid defense. That might be a good thing for Chimaev, who struggles to rack up lots of takedown points — because his opponents never get back up.
As a -490 favorite, Chimaev is a safe pick though. He may just end up the most owned of the trio of heavy favorites (Yan and Volkanovski). It’s hard to fit all three of them, though, and Chimaev is probably the best fade of the group. With his fight being only three rounds, he’s the likeliest to win his fight but still not make the optimal lineup. He ranks behind only the five-round favorites in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projections.
I wouldn’t say we need to use Burns if fading Chimaev, though. It’s hard to see him getting much going offensively here, and the more relevant question is how many points Chimaev scores in a win — not if he pulls off the win.
The Upside Plays
Daniel Santos ($7,200)
Santos is making his UFC debut after over two years of inactivity as he takes on Julio Arce ($9,000) in the opening fight of the night. This one projects for a ton of violence, as Arce is a high-volume striker and Santos is extremely aggressive.
Santos is a Chute Boxe product — the famed Brazilian gym that was once home of Anderson and Wanderlei Silva and is the current gym of lightweight champion Charles Oliveira. Santos has an aggressive, muay thai heavy style reminiscent of a young Wanderlei and boasts multiple spinning back kick knockouts to his name.
The limited tape on Santos was extremely impressive. Arce isn’t a top contender by any means, and Santos just might be in the near future. I’m willing to take a flier at only $7,200, particularly given how tight salary is on this slate. It’s also a solid value, with fighters this cheap generally having odds of +200 or longer.
The Value Play
Mark Madsen ($7,800)
Olympic silver medalist Mark Madsen is making his fourth trip to the Octagon against Vinc Pichel ($8,400). Madsen is a perfect 3-0 in the UFC, though his last bout was a semi-contentious decision win over Clay Guida. However, Pichel represents a much better matchup for him.
Pichel has a comically poor 25% takedown defense in the UFC. That’s obviously a problem against Madsen. It sets up very nicely for DFS as well, since Pichel has been decent at returning to his feet after being taken down. That also gives Madsen solid floor, as a few five-point takedowns could provide decent value even in a losing effort.
While the Guida fight could scare some people off Madsen, he’s a very live dog here. Madsen has only been competing in MMA for four years, so he could be improving his overall skill set. While he’s 37 years old, Pichel is even older — and seems to be trending in the opposite direction career-wise.
Madsen is a strong play for both cash games and tournaments, thanks to the near-inevitability of his takedowns. His 28.4-point floor projection leads all underdogs.
The Contrarian Approach
Ian Garry ($9,200)
We don’t often find low ownership on $9,200 fighters with -365 odds. The hype around Chimaev and the multiple title fights should leave Garry to fly under the radar though. Garry (rightfully) trails that trio in median and ceiling projections, but forgetting about him is a mistake.
Garry is an undefeated Irish prospect with stoppages in six of his eight professional wins. He cut his teeth fighting in England’s cage rage promotion, with none of his wins coming against fighters with losing records. He appears to be fairly polished for a 24-year-old with only one UFC fight. That fight, by the way, was a first-round knockout victory that saw Garry pick up 109 points.
The same can’t be said for his opponent, Darian Weeks ($7,000). Weeks was also undefeated at 5-0 before making his UFC debut. Unlike Garry, he lost a decision to Brain Barbarena. Weeks fought a far lesser level of competition than Garry outside of the UFC and seems to be hand-picked to make Garry look good on a big stage.
Look to mix in some Garry if multi entering. Particularly in lineups where you play one of the title fight underdogs. Garry should end up in the optimal lineup if any of Yan/Volkanovski/Chimaev ends up losing. For what it’s worth, Garry is the only fighter over $9,000 to see betting lines move his way since salaries dropped. The other three have all seen lines move against them.
The Swing Fight
Anthony Hernandez ($8,700) vs. Josh Fremd ($7,500)
Anthony “fluffy” Hernandez welcomes Josh Fremd to the Octagon on Saturday’s prelims. This fight stands out from a DFS perspective thanks to its extremely long (-500) odds to end inside the distance. All of Hernandez’s four UFC fights have done just that, with two submission wins, a submission loss, and a knockout loss. Fremd seems to be a finisher as well, with only two decision wins through nine victories.
This bout came together on short notice, with various restructuring of the middleweight fights on the card. Generally, that favors the established fighter since fighters who only made it to the UFC as a last-minute replacement aren’t usually UFC caliber. However, Fremd had already signed a contract before this bout, so he’s not simply a desperation find.
Hernandez is tough to handicap, looking great in submission wins over Rodolfo Viera and Jun-Young Park but equally bad against Markus Perez and Kevin Holland. Perez lost three straight UFC bouts after beating Hernandez, while Holland has since fled the division down to 170lbs.
Fremd appears to be the much bigger fighter, as Hernandez could probably follow Holland down to welterweight. Fremd also has strong grappling of his own, and his size advantage gives him an edge in the standup. On the other hand, Hernandez is in an uncomfortable spot salary-wise, so he could be a good leverage play. Getting -190 favorites with -500 stoppage odds at low ownership should always be considered.
Even so, I’m planning on loading up on Fremd here. We need cheaper fighters to fit the high-end guys in, and Fremd stands out among the cheaper options. He’s my favorite underdog on the card, as outlined in our UFC 273 preview podcast:
Photo Credit: Jeff Bottari/Getty Images
Pictured above: Alexander Volkanovski
