Former teammates turned bitter rivals Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal finally settle their beef in the cage on Saturday. We also have a five-round co-main event between Rafael Dos Anjos and late addition Renato Moicano. Lineups lock at 6 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
The Main Event
Colby Covington ($9,400) vs. Jorge Masvidal ($6,800)
The main event in UFC 272 is fairly straightforward from a DFS perspective.
Covington tends to rack up a ton of points with his volume. He throws strikes at the highest clip of any male fighter on the card and attempts twice as many takedowns as the UFC average. That has resulted in a ridiculous 149-point average on DraftKings for five-round wins in his UFC career. Even with his high salary, you’re going to want a ton of exposure to Covington — at least when he’s not fighting Kamaru Usman.
On the other side, Masvidal has a true puncher’s chance here. I generally shy away from that term, because anybody in the UFC could — in theory — knock their opponent out. However, Masvidal’s creative striking and power make it a real possibility here. He also has a very solid 75% takedown defense. He might not be able to keep the fight standing the whole time, but it should give him enough time on the feet to throw some bombs.
With all that said, I’m riding with Covington for cash games. He has the highest median and ceiling projections by a fairly wide margin. While rostering both main-event fighters is generally preferable, the co-main event is the better stacking opportunity here. (More on that in a second.) I also don’t want to lock in two losses in my cash game lineups, so I’ll be leaving “Gamebred” alone.
Masvidal is interesting for GPPs though. Historically, underdogs are plus-EV in five-round fights, and I’m anticipating reasonably low ownership on Masvidal. I want to be overweight on the field if multi-entering, which I don’t expect to be difficult with reasonable ownership on Masvidal.
The Co-Main Event
Rafael Dos Anjos ($7,300) vs. Renato Moicano ($7,200)
With the late addition of Moicano to the card, we’ve created tremendous value in the co-main event. For some reason, this fight was also booked for five rounds, which further increases the likelihood of one (or both) of the fighters ending up in the optimal lineup.
This is a classic example of a fighter moving from a noticeable underdog to a favorite due to an opponent change. Since DraftKings doesn’t update salaries once released, we’re getting RDA — a -170 favorite — in the same price range as Tim Elliot ($7,200) — a +200 underdog. That makes RDA a lock for cash games, and a valuable — but heavily rostered — GPP play.
That’s where Moicano comes in. DraftKings had to price Moicano below RDA since he’s the underdog, but a fair price for Moicano would be around $8,000. (At +150, he has similar odds to Edson Barbosa at $7,900, who is +145.) That makes doubling up on Moicano and RDA a no-brainer for cash.
However, it’s a viable GPP strategy as well. If this fight goes five rounds — which it’s roughly a toss up to do based on betting lines — Moicano could put up enough points to pay off his salary even with a loss. While the rostership of RDA and Moicano individually will be relatively high, the number of GPP lineups featuring both of them will be fairly limited.
There’s also historical precedence for rostering three fighters across two five round fights. In the last four events with multiple five-rounders, one of them featured three of the four fighters in the optimal lineup. This build relies on fights elsewhere on the card not living up to expectations. That’s certainly possible though, with slow-paced, heavily favored wrestlers making up the top of the salary range.
If just building one lineup — or for smaller field contests — take the easy value on Dos Anjos. However, I’ll be mixing in some lineups with both fighters in my multi-entry builds.
The Easy Chalk
Umar Nurmagomedov ($9,600)
Anytime we see the name “Nurmagomedov,” we know exactly what to expect. This time it’s cousin Umar, who’s a massive -800 favorite on the card.
Normally his salary would be somewhat prohibitive, but with the co-main event providing so much value, Nurmagomedov will be fairly popular. He’s also our second-highest-projected fighter behind Covington.
He’s still a great play, though. Like Khabib, Umar is an extremely persistent wrestler. He landed five takedowns in his UFC debut, a second-round submission win. I’m expecting more of the same here, making him a very strong play. His opponent, Brain Kelleher ($6,600) is a solid veteran, but should be a stepping stone on Umar’s rise through the ranks.
If Nurmagomedov fails here, it’s likely due to other fighters on the card providing more upside at lower salaries. With his odds of winning by submission fairly high, he could win quickly without putting up a huge score. Kelleher’s ability to get back to his feet and force multiple takedowns from Umar will be the key to an upside score from Nurmagomedov. Still, his odds of scoring in the 100-point range are exceedingly high. That should be enough here, so I’ll have a ton of him in my lineups.
Kevin Holland ($9,100)
Holland is making his welterweight debut against fading veteran Alex Oliveira ($7,100). Both fighters are riding three-fight winless streaks, and could theoretically be fighting for their promotional lives. However, Holland’s streak came against Derek Brunson, Marvin Vettori and Kyle Daukaus. That’s a much higher level of competition than Oliveira has faced, and up a weight class.
The extra size and strength should serve Holland well here. He always looked a bit undersized at 185 pounds, while Oliveira isn’t a particularly big welterweight. He’s dabbled at lightweight and fought at 160-pound catchweights in the past. Holland should have the grappling advantage, as well. Two of Oliveira’s recent losses were by submission, and Holland has a few submission wins on his record.
Holland has a top-four median projection on the card, and a solid 99-point ceiling. He likely goes over that if he puts “Cowboy” away early though. He’s averaging 114 points in stoppage wins in his UFC career. He’s -110 to get this done inside the distance. Sean Zerillo discussed his odds of doing so by submission in the latest edition of The Action Network UFC Betting Pod:
Sergei Spivak ($8,700)
Spivak is one of four fighters with a ceiling projection over 100 points for UFC 272. He’s taking on former NFL player Greg Hardy ($7,500) to open the main card. Spivak hasn’t shown a ton of power in his UFC career, with no standing knockdowns to his name, and only one win by (T)KO.
However, Hardy has been knocked out in both of his last two losses. His chin is highly suspect, as is his general skill set. Hardy reminds me of Brock Lesnar during his UFC career. Lesnar was bigger and a better athlete compared to most of his competition. However, he had a tendency to fold once he was hit or challenged in any way. Hardy has been exposed in a similar fashion. He’s not somebody who’s been fighting his whole adult life, he’s a tremendous athlete who happens to be in the UFC.
Spivak should be able to push him one way or another though. It’s likeliest to happen on the ground, where Hardy has shown very little — particularly off his back. That gives me a bit of pause, as a takedown (singular) and submission wouldn’t necessarily result in a ton of points. Still, Spivak doesn’t need a monster score at $8,700. He’s a solid play here for both cash games and GPPs.
The Value Play
Ludovit Klein ($7,700)
While the real value (particularly for cash games) comes in the co-main event, Klein is a solid GPP option. The Slovakian striker is stepping up to 155 pounds after a pair of losses at featherweight. However, prior to those losses he was on a four-fight win streak by knockout (one of them in the UFC.)
“Mr. Highlight” is extremely dangerous on his feet, which is where the bulk of this fight should be contested. His opponent, Devonte Smith ($8,500) has only attempted one takedown in his UFC career. Smith has also lost two of his last three bouts, both by way of knockout. His lone win was against Justin Jaynes, a now cut fighter who lost four consecutive UFC bouts (and his first fight back on the regional circuit.) Even then, Smith’s win came by way of an eye injury, and not a clean knockout.
So Smith has little to no ability to take this fight to the ground, and a suspect chin. That’s a rough combination against Klein. I suspect Klein’s power holds up at 155 pounds, as well. He fought many of his pre-UFC bouts as a lightweight. His lone UFC win was also at a 150-pound catchweight. He seems to perform better when he doesn’t have to cut so much weight.
On top of that, Klein’s line has moved from around +170 when DraftKings released salaries, to +130 or so now, the biggest movement (by percentage) on the card. That means he’s $300-$400 cheaper than he would be if salary came out now. If he loses this one, it’s likely that it comes by way of knockout though. That’s why I’ll have a rule to include one of Smith or Klein when creating my lineups with the FantasyLabs Optimizer.
The Contrarian Approach
Michal Oleksiejczuk ($7,600)
“Hussar” is the underdog in the first fight of the night, an expected stand-up war with Dustin Jacoby ($8,600). Jacoby is a decorated striker, with experience as both a boxer and a kickboxer. However, Oleksiejcuzk has something he doesn’t — good old fashioned blunt force trauma.
Oleksiejcuzk has three UFC wins by knockout and has nearly quadruple the knockdown rate as Jacoby. That creates a situation where Jacoby needs to win this fight for 15 minutes — but Oleksiejcuzk only needs to land a punch or two. Oleksiejcuzk has both of his UFC losses coming by submission, and has shown a solid chin. With Jacoby showing little interest and ability in bringing the fight to the mat (one for four on takedowns in five UFC fights), this one likely is decided on the feet.
If it does hit the floor, I’d give a slight edge to Oleksiejcuzk as well. He secured two takedowns in his UFC debut against Khalil Rountree, a unanimous decision win that was later ruled a no contest. I’m not sure he tries to take Jacoby down — as he hasn’t taken anyone down since — but it’s a nice option to have if the striking isn’t going well. At his $7,600 salary, any win should be enough to find him in the optimal lineup.
The Swing Fight
Jalin Turner ($8,200) vs. Jamie Mullarkey ($8,000)
Turner vs. Mullarkey has (DFS) fight of the night written all over it. Mullarkey has won each of his last two fights by knockout, putting up at least 109 points in each of them. Prior to that, he racked up five takedowns in a decision loss. That’s a pretty solid floor for Mullarkey, who can at least not totally ruin your lineup if he loses in similar fashion.
Turner has three consecutive UFC stoppages in his own right. His have all come on the ground, with a pair of submissions and a ground-and-pound finish. He profiles as more of a striker though. Two of those three fights got to the ground by virtue of a Turner knockdown. Either way, he’s 4-2 in the UFC with all of his wins being stoppages, and all of them providing at least 107 fantasy points.
My slight lean here is with the underdog, Mullarkey though. He seems to be the better grappler, and was able to last all 15 minutes in both of his UFC losses. The ability to take this fight to the ground if needed, or keep it standing is a big edge here. He should also come in at an ownership discount, providing some extra leverage if he wins. Either way, the winner of this one will be highly likely to be in the winning lineup.
