We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs tools to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Easy Chalk
Petr Yan ($8,800)
Yan leads our Median projections for UFC 267, despite being only the ninth most expensive fighter on the slate. Naturally, this also leads to him being the best points per dollar play of the night. Yan technically lost his last fight to Aljamin Sterling, but it was due to an illegal knee in a fight Yan was winning handily. Prior to that, he was on a 10 fight win streak, with seven of those coming inside the Octagon. He’s a -250 or so favorite against Cody Sandhagen in this one.
Yan has an extremely fantasy-friendly fighting style. His knockdown rate is almost four times as high as the UFC average, which is remarkable for a fighter in a smaller weight class. On top of that, he lands twice as many strikes per round as the average UFC fighter. While his striking is his better weapon, he also attempts a takedown per round and lands two-thirds of them.
All of this explains his 104.9 fantasy point average on DraftKings. When you include only fights scheduled for five rounds, that number jumps even higher to 118 fantasy points. He managed to score 90 in the “loss” to Sterling without the aid of the win bonus.
He also should have no problem dispatching Cody Sandhagen ($7,400) on Saturday. Sandhagen is coming off a split decision loss to TJ Dillashaw and was submitted by Sterling in the first round last summer. I’d feel better about Sandhagen’s chances if he were a grappler, but, like Yan, he’s a striker. This isn’t “style vs. style” this is “good striker vs. great striker (who also has a grappling advantage.)
I expect Yan to be the most popular fighter on the slate, but it’s hard to get away from him.
Jan Blachowicz ($9,000)
Blachowicz is defending his light heavyweight crown against Glover Texeira in the main event. He’s fourth in our median and points per dollar projections as a -300 favorite. I actually think ownership on Blachowicz will be slightly reduced due to the large number of heavy favorites this weekend, many of whom are being given far greater stoppage odds by betting markets (Chimaev) or have a more fantasy friendly style (Yan.)
Either way, Blachowicz gets to fight for five rounds if he doesn’t get a stoppage, whereas everyone else (except Yan) only gets three. This raises his floor considerably. He also probably has more ceiling than betting markets (and our projections) give him credit for. He’s -105 to win inside the distance but has finished two of his last three fights. He also racked up 116 points in the only one of those fights to go to a decision. While he’s not necessarily known as a knockout artist, Blachowicz’s knockdown rate is slightly higher than the divisional average while throwing at an above average volume.
Blachowicz is a bit hard to fit into lineups with all of the more exciting options at his price range. Even so, he’s a rock-solid play with sneaky upside in this one.
Khazmat Chimaev ($9,500)
Chimaez trails just behind Islam Makhachez for the most expensive, and most heavily favored, fighter on the slate. However, our projections prefer Chimaev a great deal, with an almost 20-point advantage in median projection.
Chimaev is taking on brawler Li Jingliang, and is currently a -175 favorite to win this one inside the distance. Chimaev has been utterly dominant in the UFC so far, racking up three wins in under ten minutes total cage time. He’s done it on his feet, with a 17-second knockout over Gerald Meerschaert, and on the ground, with submission and ground and pound wins.
He’s certainly a better grappler than Li, who was taken down four times by Neal Magny (on seven attempts) and twice by Jake Matthews (four attempts) in his most recent losses. Chimaev might even be a better striker too, but we haven’t seen him need to much. Other than the 17-second knockout, Chimaev has a takedown early in every round he’s fought.
Chimaev trails only Yan in Median, Ceiling, and points per dollar projections in this one. He’s a great play for all formats, though his price does make him tricky to fit in lineups.
The Upside Plays
Andre Petroski ($8,600)
Petroski, the 6-1 veteran of the most recent season of TUF, is taking on 3-2 Chinese prospect Yaozong Hu in preliminary action. This one is tricky to project as Hu hasn’t fought in almost three years. However, Hu seems to have made some improvements in his time off:
It appears Yaozong Hu took Hot Girl Summer really seriously this year #UFC267 pic.twitter.com/n3XpOKrxy8
— Aaron Watershow (@TopKaiki) October 29, 2021
Either way, betting markets and our projections are still on Petroski, who has finished all seven of his career victories. He’s an even +100 to win this one inside the distance and can get it done via submission (three wins) or striking (four wins by (T)KO.)
If you believe the records, this one should be an easy win for Petroski. Hu is 0-2 in the UFC, and his three wins prior to entering the octagon came against fighters with a combined 2-4 record. There’s a lot of hype around Hu, but it remains to be seen if we should believe any of it.
Petroski is one of seven fighters on the card with a ceiling projection of at least 100. He’s the cheapest of the bunch though, so he makes a lot of sense for tournament lineups.
The Value Plays
Amanda Ribas ($8,200)
Ribas is one of the best “win equity per dollar” plays on the slate. She costs only $8,200, despite being a -175 (64% implied win probability) favorite. She’s 4-1 in the UFC, with her only loss coming to Marina Rodriguez.
Ribas is a very solid grappler, winning two of her UFC fights, and four of her seven fights (counting only those with winning method listed) by submission. She also throws with a ton of volume, averaging over 57 total strikes per round. Ribas has also scored over 100 DraftKings points in three of her five UFC fights, so she could easily pay off her current salary.
While books have this fight as a -200 favorite to go the distance, Ribas can still get there for fantasy players without a stoppage. It’s hard to find value on this slate, but she’s it. Outside of Cody Sandhagen (who’s facing Petr Yan), she’s the cheapest fighter projected for at least 60 points.
The Contrarian Approach
Dan Hooker ($6,600)
Hooker is my best bet for the week (as a +450 underdog), and I was happy to see our fantasy projections agree with me. We have his median projection at 62.2 points — 15th out of 28 fighters on the slate — despite being the cheapest fighter on the card. Check out our best bets column on the Action Network app to see why I think Hooker has a chance at winning this outright.
Regardless of whether he can earn a victory, Hooker has a good chance of paying off at his current salary. He scored 98 points in a decision loss to Dustin Poirer, for example. He’s a very active striker, with legitimate power, ranking well above average in knockdown and striking rate. The concern here is the grappling of Makhachev neutralizing Hooker on the feet. While I’m sure Makhachev will get him down at some point, Hooker’s 80% takedown defense is well above the UFC’s 62% average.
With all they hype around his opponent, Hooker will likely be underowned in this one. It never feels great rostering a +450 underdog, but a big score from him could send your lineup past most of the competition.
The Swing Fight
Michał Oleksiejczuk ($7,800) vs. Shamil Gamzatov ($8,400)
On this mismatch filled card, a +105(Oleksiejczuk)/-125(Gamzatov) fight is the “swing fight” by default. No other fight has the favored fighter at less than -175 odds. Fortunately for us, this fight features two 205-pound sluggers who each have finished at least two thirds of their professional victories.
Both men are relatively early in their UFC careers, with six UFC fights between them (five of them being Oleksiejczuk’s. He has two wins by knockout, one win by decision, and two submission losses. His gameplan here is pretty clear. Gamzatov also appears to prefer striking (only one takedown attempt in his UFC debut) but seems to be the more well-rounded fighter, with four submission victories on his record.
We have both fighters projected under 60 points, but one of them should obviously blow that number out of the water. My money is on Gamzatov, who seems to be more well-rounded and is the slight betting favorite, but neither result would shock me. Rostering either one of them could open up a lot of salary for the rest of your lineup though, and this fight is only +125 to end inside the distance, so one of them will be a solid value by night’s end.
Photo Credit: Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Pictured above: Andre Petroski
