In January, I wrote about the scoring changes for DraftKings’ MMA contests and how players could benefit from the differences between the old and new systems. For UFC 261, I want to point out how you can find value on specific fighters by looking at their work rate.
Just like any other DFS sport, usage, or work rate, is one of the most important predictive measures for fantasy scoring. I discussed this previously with regard to strikers in MMA. Work rate incorporates strikes attempted and takedowns attempted and could help project whether fights will have a fast or slow paced, as well as if we could expect more striking vs. more grappling.
The following table sorts all of the bouts at UFC 261 by the combination of the fighters’ average strike attempts per round across their UFC careers.
(Five round fights in bold)
A couple caveats: With this being average per round, fighters with a small number of fights/rounds and/or those with a larger percentage of stoppages (leading to less complete rounds) may not have their true “pace” represented accurately by the chart.
Takedown attempts in and of itself isn’t necessarily a good thing, especially under the new scoring. It could be a result of fighters having a hard time keeping opponents on the ground (even with solid takedown success rates), which means less points for control time, and less opportunities to rack up ground strikes and submissions.
Here’s how work rates will come into play for some notable fights on Saturday night’s card.
Danaa Batgerel vs. Kevin Natividad
This fight stands out immediately. Batgerel is a moderate favorite (-190 or so depending on the book) with the best striking rate on the card, but he’s priced as the third-cheapest favorite ahead of only Weidman and Allen, who are -125/-160 respectively.
Even better, his opponent has little interest in turning the fight into a grappling match, as Natividad attempted only one (unsuccessful) submission in his UFC debut, while showing excellent takedown defense, stopping all seven of his opponents attempts before being KO’d in the third round.
This fight is implied (vig free) at about a 42% chance of a finish, which is lower than I’d normally like for a GPP, but Batgerel makes a great cash-game play and could end up in the optimal GPP lineup if we have another decision-heavy card. For GPPs, I think mixing in some Natividad makes a lot of sense.
Underdogs generally carry lower ownership, and he managed to attempt an above-average number of strikes while fending off seven takedowns. I’d imagine that striking rate will climb as long as this fight stays standing as expected. He also has KOs in five of nine pro wins. While he deservedly projects poorly, I believe his chances of posting a score needed to win a GPP are far greater than his ownership will be, and at $7,700 (DK) he gives your lineups lots of flexibility.
Uriah Hall vs. Chris Weidman
This is actually a rematch, as Weidman KO’d Hall way back in 2010 before either fighter made it to the UFC, which isn’t at all relevant but I found it interesting.
Anyway, Weidman’s takedown rate stands out here. He ties with Usman for the slate high, but checks in at a very affordable $7,900 salary, despite being a slight favorite at most books. The new scoring rewards control time, so if he is able to dictate the location of this fight, he can rack up enough points to be a GPP must have, despite coming in at what I predict to be fairly low ownership (64% of Tapology predictions are on Hall).
This is a scary play, as he’s been KO’d in three of his last five fights, and we know Hall brings a lot of power, but I’ll be getting some exposure either way. I’m also considering creating an optimizer rule to include at least one of the two fighters from this bout in most of my lineups, since the way I see it either Weidman racks up takedown and control points, or Hall wins with a KO.
The Title Fights
Having three title fights is fairly uncommon, and it creates some challenges for DFS players. We obviously want a ton of exposure to the five-round fights, since we get either a stoppage, or 66% more rounds out of the deal. However, jamming in the three favorites is almost impossible (especially while fading their opponents, who are all among the cheapest on the slate).
When using the FantasyLabs optimizer, I’ll probably create a rule that every lineup must include two of the three favorites. However, for my hand-built lines, I think I’ll be forcing in some Andrade. While Andrade has the longest odds of any of the title fighters, Shevchenko has been, by process of elimination, the most mortal of the titleholders. Her only losses have been to Amanda Nunes, sure, but neither Zhang nor Usman have lost a fight since 2013.
More importantly, Andrade throws with such ridiculous volume, she could pay off her slate-low $6,700 salary in defeat, especially if the fight goes the distance as it is implied (-125) to do. Shevchenko also has a far more pedestrian work rate than the other titleholders, so fading her feels a little better. We’d still need a highly improbable Andrade win to make it work for GPPs, but I think her points per salary makes her cash game viable regardless.
