This is a weekly series that follows MLB trends created with our Trends tool. Although the trends in this series are made with specific slates in mind, they are designed to remain relevant throughout the season.
8/7: Uber-Chalk
In daily fantasy sports, there is the chalk and the uber-chalk. On Monday’s slate, Max Scherzer clearly represented the latter.
The first contributing factor was a smaller-than-average main slate that consisted of only seven games and resulted in fewer elite options from which to choose. Second, Max was backed by some unreal data entering his matchup with the Marlins: His opponent was implied by Vegas to score 3.1 runs, and he was a massive -296 moneyline favorite; his huge 8.9 K Prediction was the cherry on top. Players with such a combination of factors have historically achieved these results:
Scherzer’s spot really could not be overstated. However, with projected ownership of 41 percent plus– our highest tier – a fade needed to at least be entertained. In our database, 23 pitchers have had an ownership projection of 41-plus on DraftKings. Those pitchers have averaged a -1.59 Plus/Minus on 48.8 percent actual ownership. With nothing else considered, fading the uber-chalk pitchers has historically been a profitable move.
The curveball in Scherzer’s case was a potentially lingering neck issue that caused Max to leave his previous start after a single inning. A ‘potentially lingering neck issue’ is something that is hard to fit into a model, but it’s also something that could affect ownership, despite Max’s otherwise golden matchup.
Results
In the end, the DFS community sided with Vegas, which didn’t seem too concerned about Max’s health based on Miami’s implied run total and the massive money line. Max was rostered at an average rate of 64.87 percent across the four contests that we track, per our Ownership Dashboard. Scherzer logged 25.5 fantasy points and a +4.0 Plus/Minus, avoiding a fate similar to past uber-chalk pitchers. However, due to his premium price tag, he was not a top tournament option. Max finished as only the fifth-highest scoring pitcher on the evening, a group led by the unlikely duo of Dylan Bundy and Jose Pirela, who combined for four percent ownership in the $5,300 buy-in Thunderdome. Even though the uber-chalk technically hit here, the actual return was not very helpful.
8/8: Setting Reminders
Have you ever had one of those moments in DFS where you were well aware of the existence of a certain angle, but for whatever reason that angle slipped your mind when it came time to create actual lineups? Maybe you played David Price against the Yankees or Drew Brees in an outdoor game. I’ve certainly been there myself, and each time it’s happened, after rosters lock, I’d look at my lineup and think, “I knew better than to do that.”
One of my favorite things about our Trends tool is that it can serve as a reminder tool. “Hey, remember that time you looked at David Price’s performance against the Yankees and found a -7.16 Plus/Minus over 17 starts? Yeah, he’s playing the Yankees again today, so please don’t use him.”
Anyway, one trend I set up ages ago was one created by FantasyLabs editor-in-chief Matthew Freedman, which he dubbed the Turbo Trend. The Turbo Trend essentially matches only the most premium pitching matchups using pitch count, moneyline, and K Prediction filters. On DraftKings, this trend has an astronomical +6.88 Plus/Minus over 152 results on 75 percent Consistency. Generally, there will be only a few pitchers each week who match the trend. On Tuesday, my Trends tool was telling me, “Hey, remember the Turbo Trend Freedman created with the crazy Plus/Minus? Yeah, three pitchers match that today.”
Results
Generally good for at least six innings, heavily favored, and projected to rack up strikeouts, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, and Dallas Keuchel matched the Turbo Trend on Tuesday. Even though Keuchel bombed with a -10.0 Plus/Minus, the three pitchers collectively scored 80.35 fantasy points with a +19.0 Plus/Minus. Kluber and Sale combined for 24 strikeouts while allowing one combined run.
8/9: The Longest Distance
A sample of 162 games — a full MLB season — seems big. But even when we’re looking at entire MLB seasons, there are outliers — players who escaped regression and over- or underperformed. If you were to look at batted ball distance over the fantasy year, you may be surprised by some of the names at the top.
Looking at players who have played in at least 81 games – half a season’s worth of games – over the past 12 months, with an average batted ball distance between 230 and 250 feet over that time frame, there are 5,680 matches with a collective +0.47 DraftKings Plus/Minus. The interesting thing here is that the average expected points –the fantasy points we’d expect a player to score based solely on position and salary – is 8.21. That implied total matches up with a DraftKings salary of $4,200.
However, there are many players in the cohort who come substantially cheaper. Capping a player’s salary at $3,500, we’re now looking at a cohort with 695 matches with these results:
A couple observations:
- Obviously, the Plus/Minus is great.
- Despite hitting the ball at a distance matching the top hitters in the league over the past year, players who match this trend are largely ignored, with an average ownership of only four percent.
The player who stuck out to me the most within this trend on Wednesday was Nick Castellanos. With an average batted ball distance of 231 feet over the fantasy year, Castellanos bested Mike Trout in the category and trailed Miguel Sano and Joey Votto by less than two feet. In 2017, Castellanos’ average ownership has been 3.8 percent — a level well below his hard-hitting peers.
Results
Castellanos did not hit a home run, but that’s about the only thing you could fault him for: He went three-for-five with a triple and five runs batted in. His average ownership on DraftKings was 3.07 percent, including zero percent in the $5,300 buy-in Thunderdome.
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Thanks for following along with my three custom trends this week. As always, there’s plenty more left to be explored via the Labs Tools.
