I have had the fortune of meeting all different kinds of people in my life. Most of us are very similar. I don`t know much. None of us really do, but knowing that about ourselves could end up really helping us in the long run.
Above was in a part of this article I decided to delete. I thought it was cool, so there it is. I will be damned if I write something cool and don`t include it.
For personal reasons, I have done some research into the idea of faith. I find the subject fascinating. When examining the idea of faith, most people think they are about to examine some sort religion or world view. Actually, faith is something all people use on a day to day basis. The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines faith as “firm belief in something for which there is no proof”. That is debatable, but for the sake of this article, we will roll with that definition. My study of faith brought about some interesting observations on how I come to conclusions on what is true and what is false. I do think this is DFS relevant, but first let me give an off-subject example.
I believe in several things that are true for which there is no proof. Leaving my world views aside, let`s look at the most basic. I believe my mother is my biological mother. I have never requested proof from her because I do not need it. The evidence of my memories, the shared love for one another, similar physical appearance, and other things allow me to be VERY comfortable in believing that she is my biological parent. I believe this. None of you would ever be able to convince me otherwise. It is as true to me as almost anything in this world, yet I have not proven it.
It is conceivable, though not likely, that my mom could tell me this holiday that I was adopted. I would be shocked, but it is plausible. In this example, I do not think I am making any error in my belief. I am most likely correct that the truth is: my mother is my biological mother. I have good reason to place my faith in my mother telling me the truth.
We are fast approaching the part where I talk about sports and DFS.
I place faith in some people for no good reason. I did not know my science teacher prior to meeting her in the 5th grade, but when she told me how electricity worked, and then proceeded to flip the light switch on the wall to cause the light above me to turn on and off, I believed everything she had just said. I didn’t request to look in the walls to see with my own eyes the wires that she claimed were connecting the switch to the light. I just believed her, because I thought I was supposed to.
I have done this with sports as well. If someone on ESPN says something, I cannot help but to store it away. It sits in the back of my mind and creeps up from time to time unannounced. I think we have to be weary of what we read and hear, specifically if there is no “proof” or data to back it up. Let`s look at sports. Here are some things I have heard that I may, without knowing, let come into play when making a DFS decision. Some of these are commonly referred to as “Narrative Street.”
– Establishing the run will assist and boost production in the pass game.
– QBs perform better out of play action.
– Teams traveling from the east coast to the west coast tend to underperform.
– Playing in Miami Week 1 is the toughest spot to play in all of football due to the heat (a very popular take after the Patriots week 1 loss last year on local Boston radio).
– A player will perform above expectation because it is a “contract year.”
– A player returning to an old team will perform above expectation because it is a “revenge game.”
– A player is in a “slump.” (This statement can be processed several different ways – how people process it is the interesting thing.)
Some of those are probably true; some of them are probably false. I don`t know, and that is the point. All of these things are statements I have heard I think the public blindly trusts, or perhaps interprets in the wrong way. Understanding those things offers value in a few different ways. I can use tools to test them and use the results to validate a prior belief I had, or perhaps the tools disprove this statement. At that point I can hope my competition is still weighing an invalidated theory into their decision making process.
Attempting to understand how people come to believe in things or make decisions is invaluable in DFS. Predicting ownership is huge, and so far I have not seen any method that has allowed someone to do it correctly. I do not think we will ever have a way to 100% accurately predict ownership percentage, but understanding how our competition thinks will definitely help. One theory I use is that people make decision based on comfort rather than fact.
Here is an example. Let’s say my girlfriend cheats on me. I take her back and tell myself “she won`t hurt me again.” We all know how this works out most of the time. I may really believe that this person won`t hurt me again, but I most likely believed it because it was a comforting thought, not because she has shown any change. When she breaks my heart again, I will question my thought process in allowing her back into my life, but at that point it is too late. (That story was fiction, as my girlfriend is wonderful and is probably the only person reading this.)
In order to even attempt to predict how the competition is going to make a decision, you first need to understand who the competition is. I am going to approach my lineup construction a lot differently in the DraftKings $3 Play Action than I am in the $1,500 Main Event.
I think it is safe to assume that the competition is a bit softer in a $3 GPP. Looking at the RB position, one thing immediately jumps out at me.
[Editor’s note: This article was written prior to Week 16.]
I circled the OPRK next to DeAngelo Williams and Matt Forte. They are stuck in the “green sandwich” – surrounded by what DraftKings is telling us is RBs similar in price but in better matchups. This alone means pretty much nothing, but I find it interesting. When I take this along with what I expect to be a lot of touting of Antonio Brown throughout the week, I can at least begin to examine Deangelo Williams as an interesting play. I am now exploring the idea that I could have an opportunity to get him at reduced ownership. If he goes off, taking the TDs from Brown and Roethlisberger, I could be in a very good position on Sunday. Clicking on D. Williams there is not the comfortable decision. That is something I can capitalize on.
Keep in mind that this is just the beginning thoughts into a player. It is Wednesday as I am writing this. There is a chance I don`t even play Williams. As of now I actually expect more people to be on him than I hope, but a lot of information is going to come out between now and Sunday. Trying to figure out how other people are going to process that information is the task. What “truth” I think the public comes to will very much decide which players I put my faith in.
