Early October is a really interesting time of year in fantasy football. There isn’t really enough of a sample size to draw any conclusions with any level of confidence, but then again if you’re too slow to accept what’s happening, that can kill you in DFS. Anyone who stubbornly kept fading ODB or Justin Forsett last year because “small sample” found that out the hard way.
So I’m going to start looking around for stats that aren’t as I would expect them to be and try to put some kind of rationale behind the numbers. The one I’m looking at today really caught me by surprise and it has to do with offensive pace. Looking at the top teams in terms of pace so far this season, we have the Patriots, the Dolphins (who talked all offseason about playing quicker), and the Eagles (obviously). Above them all as the fastest paced team on offense through four weeks is…the Houston Texans, according to Football Outsiders.
Considering the small sample size, is this something we can expect to continue as the 2015 season rolls on? First, let’s look at Coach Bill O’Brien’s history. Here’s how his teams have ranked in terms of overall offensive pace when he has served as the offensive coordinator or head coach:
| Job | Year | Rank |
| Patriots O.C. | 2011 | 1 |
| Texans H.C. | 2014 | 14 |
| Texans H.C. | 2015 | 1 |
It’s easy to disregard the #1 ranking for the Patriots in 2011 because we think of them as a team that pushes the pace every year. But the season before, in 2010, New England ranked 16th in overall pace. Once O’Brien became offensive coordinator, the Patriots shaved 3.2 seconds off of their seconds per play number – which is a lot.
So what happened last year with O’Brien as Houston’s head coach? Ryan Fitzpatrick started the first 12 games of the season and then three other QBs played over the final quarter of the season. Looking at Fitzpatrick specifically, the 14th place rating that the Texans finished with actually tied the fastest offense that he has led, going back to 2010. After serving as the starting QB for a 9-7 Texans team for most of the year and posting career highs in both completion and interception percentages, Fitzpatrick was cut from Houston in March.
The two QBs brought in to succeed Fitz? Hoyer, who led a Browns offense that no one will accuse of being great in 2014, but at least they played fast (4th in pace, 2014) and Ryan Mallett, perennial clipboard holder for the turbo-charged Patriots offenses from 2011-2014.
That makes two quarterbacks who are used to up-tempo offense playing for a coach whose limited track record suggests he wants to push the pace. Maybe the Texans won’t finish the year at #1 overall, but it’s hard to beat Chip Kelly through four weeks by accident (And for all the talk about what’s wrong with the Eagles offense in 2015, they are only playing slightly slower than last year’s pace).
So what has that meant fantasy-wise so far? The Texans currently rank within the top 10 in the NFL in terms of total rushing attempts and total passing attempts. That has resulted in what the DFS community largely considers average talents carrying some pretty lofty Plus/Minus scores through four weeks. You don’t necessarily have to be great if you’re going to get 5-10 extra attempts a game.
Here are the main Texans of interest on DraftKings by Plus/Minus:
| Player | +/- |
| Mallett | +4.58 |
| Hoyer | +7.21 |
| Blue | +0.11 |
| Grimes | +4.21 |
| Hopkins | +6.25 |
| Shorts | +4.49 |
| Washington | +2.07 |
I think this is a pretty good example of the point I was trying to make in the beginning about making judgments based on small sample sizes. The Texans are playing fast right now and I think there is some relevant supporting evidence that says they will keep doing so.
If that’s the case, you will continue to see solid but not elite value plays come from this offense, you’ll see Hopkins continue to get fed, but what will really be interesting is to see how Arian Foster performs as the Texans continue to ramp up his workload. The one and only time the Texans have finished within the top 10 in pace during Foster’s career was during his breakout 1,616 yard 2010 season when the Texans finished ninth in pace.
