This is a weekly series that follows MLB trends created with our Trends tool. Although the trends in this series are made with specific slates in mind, they are designed to remain relevant throughout the season.
5/8: When Trends Collide
Jacob deGrom presented an intriguing option for FantasyLabs users on Monday. deGrom had some of the worst recent statcast data that you’ll ever see from an ace pitcher. Given how frequently we like to highlight Statcast data down your throats (with good reason), it was probably difficult for many of us to get on board with deGrom.
What deGrom had in his favor was a matchup against a Giants lineup that is seemingly less and less threatening each day. He was also a large Vegas favorite pitching in his home park. Below, you can see deGrom’s performance as a home favorite:
So on the one hand we had a +6.32 DraftKings Plus/Minus with an 80-plus percent Consistency Rating, and on the other hand we had deGrom’s poor Statcast data, including an allowed batted ball distance of 243 feet over the previous 15 days. One thing we knew was that he would be popular, and he was, with an average ownership of 38.4 percent. With Statcast data still underutilized in DFS, I assumed his more obvious split would lead to high ownership.
Results
deGrom turned out to be the mega chalk across all stakes, peaking in the $1,500 Gold Glove at 65.28 percent data (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard). When deGrom gave up a first inning two-run shot to Hunter Pence, I was cursing myself for giving less weight to the Statcast data. But fortunately for a large portion of the field, deGrom settled down, allowing only one more earned run over his next five innings. Thanks to his 11 strikeouts, deGrom’s 25.8-point performance was the fifth-best score among starting pitchers on Monday.
5/9: Scherzer’s Statcast Data
Staying on the topic of Statcast data, we should talk about Max Scherzer’s start on Tuesday. Coming into his most recent start against Baltimore, Scherzer was sporting a Recent Batted Ball Luck Score of -97. That meant that compared to his recent percentile rank in average batted ball distance, his percentile rank in fantasy points was abnormally high. He had probably been lucky. Recent BBL is graded on a -100 to 100 scale, so -97 is about as bad as it gets.
Tuesday’s start marked the third time this season that Scherzer entered a game with a face-meltingly bad Recent BBL Score (-88 on 4/18 and -94 on 5/9). In fact, over the past three seasons Scherzer has started 25 games with a Recent BBL Score of -75 or worse. Why is such a great pitcher so awful in this statistic? Is this the biggest con job of all time?
In order to understand why Scherzer’s success isn’t anomalous, you have to think about his profile: he is an extreme fly ball pitcher. Last season among qualifiers, Scherzer had a 47.9 percent fly ball rate, the sixth-highest mark in the MLB. He also had 31 home runs allowed, the seventh-most homers in the league. When batters make contact against Scherzer, they’re going to hit home runs at a high rate. But in order to hit the ball far, they first need to hit the ball — and that’s not easy. Scherzer finished with the third-highest strikeout rate in 2016.
Let’s circle back to Scherzer’s -97 Recent BBL Score: Is it that concerning? I don’t know. In his three previous starts, Scherzer had allowed five home runs but only eight earned runs. Over that same time period he had 27 strikeouts. That’s just who he is.
Here’s the main point: Pitchers with Recent BBL Scores of -75 or worse have a collective Plus/Minus of +0.01. When Scherzer has a Recent BBL Score of -75 or worse, the numbers are much different:
I thought he’d probably be fine.
Results
He was fine. With an average ownership of 33.61 percent in the four DraftKings contests that we track, Scherzer finished as the top-scoring pitcher with 32.4 points.
5/9: Fly Balls & Distance
We place a lot of emphasis on batted ball distance for hitters, and it is the basis of our new Recent Batted Ball Luck metric, which can be found in our Player Models each day. When I was working on my teams for Tuesday, I was thinking about recent batted ball stats in regards to a batter’s matchup. If a batter is averaging, say, 250 feet on batted balls over the past 15 days (an excellent score) and is facing an extreme fly ball pitcher, that seems like an advantageous matchup.
Looking for upside, I created an extreme threshold trend: Hitters with 15-day batted ball distances of at least 250 feet and pitchers with fly ball rates of least 40 percent:
The 600-plus matches have collectively added well over a point per game. Aaron Judge was a match for this trend on Tuesday, pitting a 257-foot recent batted ball distance against Tim Adleman’s 49 percent fly ball rate.
Results
Judge’s 20 percent ownership made him the fourth-most popular batter on the slate, so he was far from a well-kept secret. Adleman — and more importantly, the Reds bullpen, which is much improved this year — limited the Yankees to three runs, none of which involved Judge. It was a disappointing result that ended in five fantasy points.
Conclusion
This week was all about putting data into context. Is a batted ball distance allowed of 220 feet bad for a pitcher? Maybe. It depends. Is a 91 mph exit velocity a strong number for a batter? Not if those batted balls are hit straight into the ground. Fortunately, it’s easy to properly put data into context using the FantasyLabs tools.
