At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
Trend of the Day: Negative Monthly Plus/Minus and Positive Differentials
Actively seeking players suffering from a negative monthly Plus/Minus doesn’t appear on the surface to be a move that yields positive expected value. It may offer a leg up in ownership, but simply targeting everyday players who have struggled to match salary-based expectations over the last 30 days won’t suffice. Relying on recent advanced stats may illuminate potential tournament plays whose monthly Plus/Minus values belie their recent form at the plate.
Step 1a: Fantasy Month Filters > Month Plus Minus > -55 to -10
Step 1b: Fantasy Month Filters > Month Count > 15 to 30
The trend is a slight deviation from the baseline DraftKings hitter at 0.09 Plus/Minus on 39.5 percent Consistency. The Month Count filter ensures that we focus on regular members of the lineup.
Step 2a: Adv Stats – Recent > Distance Diff > 1 to 40
Step 2b: Adv Stats – Recent > Exit Velocity Diff > 1 to 7
Step 2c: Adv Stats – Recent > HH Diff > 1 to 25
Each filter on its own produces a Plus/Minus between 0.68 and 0.77 on DraftKings. Combining the trio offers a usable trend on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Since the recent stats span the last 15 days, positive differentials paired with a negative cumulative monthly Plus/Minus could suggest a potential breakout performance soon.
Current Matches
David Ortiz, Joe Panik, Curtis Granderson, and Alcides Escobar are matches on FanDuel and DraftKings. Ian Kinsler and Odubel Herrera meet the requirements on DraftKings. Chris Davis, Casey McGehee, and Tyler Saladino (questionable – back) meet the requirements on FanDuel.
Ortiz is the only one worth more than $3,000 on FanDuel and $5,000 on DraftKings. Appending a salary filter to this trend that focuses on the higher-salaried players improves the Plus/Minus to +2.49 on FanDuel and +1.94 on DraftKings. Consistency on both sites exceeds 50 percent.
Kinsler has four hits in his last 50 at-bats. He leads all matches on both sites with a batted-ball differential of 32 feet, and his flyball rate of 68 percent over the past 15 days leads all hitters in the main slate. He’s bound to get overlooked after failing to meet salary-based expectations in eight straight games and averaging 1.87 DraftKings points in that time.
Escobar has had more success on DraftKings under these conditions this season, providing a +1.76 Plus/Minus on 62.5 percent Consistency in 16 opportunities. Facing Jose Fernandez sounds like a tall order, but hitters have smacked him around lately. At $2,900 on DraftKings, Escobar registers as a low-volume punt play projected to bat seventh for a team currently implied to score a slate-worst 2.8 runs.
