Last week’s premiere rushing performances included massive days from Melvin Gordon and Leonard Fournette, explosive debuts from rookies Aaron Jones and Marlon Mack, as well as the usual three-down studs getting plenty of work and production in Los Angeles, Dallas, and Pittsburgh. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven run-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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Kansas City Chiefs (Kareem Hunt) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Hunt has rushed for 100-plus yards in four of five games this season behind the league’s fifth-best offensive line in adjusted line yards. He owns the league’s highest average yards before contact among 32 backs with 40-plus carries this season, while also leading the league in forced missed tackles as well as average open-field and second-level yards per rush. The Chiefs’ rushing game has been a well-oiled machine, with Alex Smith, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill providing assistance with misdirection and option schemes to befuddle opposing front sevens from every angle.
The Steelers defense hasn’t demonstrated the ability to stop a high-octane rushing attack this season. Other than Isaiah Crowell, every running back to receive at least five carries against the Steelers has averaged over five yards per carry, and the only two opposing backs to be truly featured have each gone for 30-plus DraftKings points.
Teams that have wanted to run on the Steelers have largely been able to without much resistance this season. Now the Steel Curtain will have to deal with the most balanced and explosive offense they’ve seen to date — a tough combination for anyone to handle, let alone a defense allowing top-six marks in both DraftKings points per game (PPG) and Plus/Minus allowed to running backs this season. Hunt currently has the second-highest projected ownership on DraftKings among all running backs in our Pro Models. Be sure to review the slate’s ownership patterns after lock with our Ownership Dashboard.
New England Patriots (Mike Gillislee) vs. New York Jets
Gillislee hasn’t been able to replicate his uber-efficient play from last season, as his average of 3.6 yards per carry is 2.1 yards fewer than his mark from a season ago. With a nonexistent role in the passing game, Gillislee is about as touchdown-dependent as running backs get. Still, his six carries inside the five-yard line are tied for the fifth-most in the league, and he’s one of just three backs to cash in on at least four touchdowns from that distance this season. Gillislee runs behind the league’s fourth-best line in average adjusted line yards and has still demonstrated the ability to make a one-cut burst through the open hole in outside zone schemes before squaring his shoulders and falling forward through contact:
Fresh off of facing the league’s Nos. 6, 13, and 4 run defenses in DVOA, the Patriots will now get the Jets’ 25th-ranked unit that has allowed 140-plus rushing yards in four of five games this season. Leonard Williams and Muhammad Wilkerson have solid pedigree, but each rank outside of the top-70 interior defenders against the run this season. Per our Trends tool, Patriots running backs have averaged a +1.2 Plus/Minus when favored by seven-plus points — a luxury that Gillislee should be the prime beneficiary of in his role as the team’s short-yardage and clock-winding back.
Houston Texans (Lamar Miller) vs. Cleveland Browns
After gaining 131 total yards and scoring two touchdowns during the Texans’ blowout Week 4 win over the Titans, Miller managed 89 total yards on 17 touches against the Chiefs. He out-snapped D’Onta Foreman 56-9 after the Texans’ third-round pick had double-digit touches in each of the team’s three previous games, although this could have been a result of the Texans playing from behind for the majority of their Sunday night loss against the Chiefs. Miller hasn’t exactly seized the offense when it comes to creating his own yardage, as he’s failed to break a run of 20-plus yards this season and has the ninth-worst Elusive Rating among 48 qualified backs.
And then there’s the Browns’ notoriously terrible defense. On the surface, this year isn’t much different: They’ve allowed 24.8 PPG and rank 29th as a unit in DVOA. Still, this hasn’t resulted in a ton of fantasy production– especially in the run game:
- Buck Allen: 14-66-0
- Frank Gore: 25-57-1
- Le’Veon Bell: 10-32-0
- Joe Mixon: 17-29-0
- Elijah McGuire: 11-20-0
Overall, the Browns have the the third-best rush defense DVOA through five weeks and have allowed a -2.8 Plus/Minus to enemy running backs. Deshaun Watson has unquestionably been excellent, but an offensive line that has struggled at times without left tackle Duane Brown (still holding out) won’t have the easiest time with a fully-healthy Browns defensive line on which every player – save for No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett, who racked up two sacks during his debut last week – has been graded as a better run defender by PFF this season.
Los Angeles Rams (Todd Gurley) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Gurley is one of just 11 backs with 25-plus targets this season and joins Bell, LeSean McCoy, and Gordon as the only backs from that group who also offer 20-plus carry upside per game. Still, Gurley’s stranglehold on the Rams offense may not be as strong as we initially thought considering backups Malcolm Brown and Tavon Austin are healthy and have combined to average 15.5 snaps per game at running back over the past two weeks. Nobody is taking Gurley’s goal line carries, but it’s fair to wonder how many of those he’ll have with the week’s second-lowest Vegas total (per our Vegas dashboard).
Of course, Gurley does have a ‘dream’ matchup against the Jaguars’ 31st-ranked rush defense in DVOA. Their run defense has been abysmal at times, as they allowed an average of 189.6 rushing yards over a three-game stretch against the Titans, Ravens, and Jets. Still, the Jaguars have shown they have the ability to make life difficult for great backs, allowing fewer than four yards per carry to both Bell and Miller this season. Telvin Smith and Myles Jack are two of the more athletic linebackers in the league, and they have the range to make plays all over the field behind a defensive line with two of PFF’s top-16 edge defenders in Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. Gurley has proven he’s better than the back we saw last season, but this Rams offensive line ranks among the bottom-eight units in both Power and Stuffed Rank, indicating they haven’t been able to instill their will and run the ball when needed in short-yardage situations. That may not be enough against a Jaguars defense allowing just 16.6 PPG – the second-lowest mark in the league.
Honorable Mentions
- Minnesota Vikings (Jerick McKinnon) vs. Green Bay Packers: McKinnon out-snapped Latavius Murray 47-22 Monday night and received 22 total touches. He’s averaged 13.4 DraftKings PPG in 10 career games with 15-plus rush attempts and gets a Packers defense that’s allowed 100-plus rushing yards in four consecutive games.
- San Francisco 49ers (Carlos Hyde) vs. Washington Redskins: Hyde was out-snapped by backup Matt Breida 35-33 Sunday — a decision head coach Kyle Shanahan clarified was an attempt to “go with the hot hand.” The days of Hyde dominating the 49ers’ backfield appear to be over, and a date with a Redskins defense that has allowed 3.8 DraftKings points below salary-based expectations to running backs awaits.
- Atlanta Falcons (Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman) vs. Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins defense has posted top-four marks in average yards per attempt, rushing yards per game, and rushing touchdowns allowed this season. Their funnel defense will look to bottle up Freeman, who has averaged a +4.4 Plus/Minus as a home favorite since 2014, and Coleman, who has put together back-to-back 80-plus total yard performances.
- Arizona Cardinals (Adrian Peterson and Andre Ellington) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Peterson is 32 years old, has averaged 2.76 yards per carry, and has scored three touchdowns over his last 13 games. Ellington has racked up a combined 32 targets over his past three games and gets a Buccaneers funnel defense that ranks sixth in DVOA against the run and 27th against the pass.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (Leonard Fournette) vs. Los Angeles Rams: Fournette leads the league in overall rushing attempts and is one of four backs with at least seven carries inside the five-yard line. He gets a Rams defense that has allowed 24-plus DraftKings points to Chris Thompson, Elliott, and Hyde this season.
