Last week started and ended with prime time offensive line collapses from the Bengals and Giants, respectively, while the Ravens and Titans defenses each made their opponents’ turnover-prone quarterback pay. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven pass-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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Atlanta Falcons (Matt Ryan) vs. Detroit Lions
Ryan’s 2016 MVP season was one of the most efficient ever. Ryan’s average of 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) placed him with Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers as the only quarterbacks to ever post a double-digit AY/A with at least 300 pass attempts in a single season. While regression seemed certain, the Falcons brought back literally their entire offense sans retired guard Wes Schweitzer, and Ryan has proceeded to post a 10.6 AY/A through the first two weeks of the season. He’s posted the fifth-best passer rating in the league when kept clean this season after posting the top mark in 2016. After ranking 23rd in adjusted sack rate last season, tackles Jake Matthews and Ryan Schraeder (concussion, questionable) have both earned top-20 pass-blocking PFF grades; Ryan has taken just five hits per game compared to 6.6 per game last season.
And then we have the Lions, who managed to pressure Carson Palmer and Eli Manning on 22/49 and 13/37 dropbacks in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. Defensive ends Ezekiel Ansah and Anthony Zettel rank 15th and 17th in pass-rushing productivity among 89 edge defenders to play at least 25 percent of their team’s snaps — quite the improvement considering the duo combined for just three sacks last season despite missing just six total games. Remember, we saw the underwhelming Cowboys and Colts pass defenses give the Giants and Cardinals offensive lines fits as well. Ryan has thrown for multiple touchdowns or 300-plus yards in seven of his last nine road games, and the league’s No. 3 offense in yards per play currently has the third-highest implied score in the game with the week’s second-highest Vegas total.
Washington Redskins (Kirk Cousins) vs. Oakland Raiders
Captain Kirk and the Redskins’ passing attack has gotten off to a slow start this season, failing to surpass 250 yards in unimposing matchups against the Eagles and Rams. The Redskins don’t have a guard or center graded among the top-20 interior linemen in the league, but they are one of few teams with two tackles capable of at least hanging with All-World pass-rusher Khalil Mack. The blind side in Washington has been expertly covered by Trent Williams for the better part of the past eight seasons, and right tackle Morgan Moses tied with Joe Thomas for 15th among all tackles in pass-blocking efficiency in 2016. Cousins averaged the third-most yards per attempt when kept clean last season and finds himself in a situation where he’s historically thrived:
Overall, Cousins has averaged 20.6 DraftKings points per game (PPG) with a +4.8 Plus/Minus as a home underdog since 2014 (per our Trends tool). He’s enjoyed a steep ownership discount in this situation as well. This year, FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs.
Mack will likely make a few splash plays against any team he lines up against, but the Raiders don’t possess any pieces to threaten the Redskins offensive line elsewhere. No current Raiders linebacker or interior defender was graded as a top-70 player at their position by PFF last season. While third-round defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes has been a surprisingly effective early contributor with five pressures in 33 pass-rush snaps, this is a defense that has ranked 32nd, 23rd, and 30th in adjusted sack rate during Mack’s first three seasons. With Rob Kelley questionable with a rib injury, the Redskins could be forced to lean on pass-catching back Chris Thompson. Head coach Jay Gruden has already insisted the team won’t force Thompson to be the workhorse back he’s not — a decision that could lead to more opportunities through the air against the league’s eighth-worst pass defense in DVOA last season.
New York Giants (Eli Manning) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Giants head coach Ben McAdoo was forced to clarify that he will indeed continue to start trainwreck Ereck Flowers at left tackle despite allowing seven sacks in his last seven games and the most pressures among all offensive linemen since 2015 (per PFF’s Scott Barrett). On the other side of the line, right tackle Bobby Hart is dealing with an ankle injury and is questionable for Sunday. PFF doesn’t have a Giants guard among their top-30 pass blockers, though fourth-year starter Weston Richburg has continued to provide a stabilizing presence at center. Still, any small mistake has proved to be fatal this season, as Manning has been sacked on a league-high 33.3 percent of his pressures (for reference, the worst mark last season was Andy Dalton at 22.6 percent). This is much more concerning considering the Giants have faced the Cowboys and Lions, two of the league’s bottom-three defenses in pressures per game from a season ago.
PFF ranked the Eagles’ front seven as the third-best unit in the league going into this season, and they specialize in getting after the passer. All four of Vinny Curry, Timmy Jernigan, Brandon Graham, and Fletcher Cox ranked among the top-30 interior and edge defenders in pass-rushing productivity last season, with the latter two ranking among the top-five. The presence of Odell Beckham Jr. means the Giants are always just a few seconds away from a slant going 60 yards to the house, but it’s hard to get too excited about the potential of the pass offense as a whole considering the Eagles allowed 2.5 fewer adjusted net yards per attempt at home last season and haven’t allowed over 30 points at home since 2015.
Baltimore Ravens (Joe Flacco) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Favorites have typically balled out in London, but the Ravens will have to replace All-Universe guard Marshal Yanda (fractured ankle) with Tony Bergstrom on the fly. Bergstrom is a former third-round pick that is already on his third team in four years; he’s not proven to be good at football. Tackles Ronnie Stanley and Ryan Jensen each rank outside of the top-25 pass-blocking tackles this season, and the Jaguars have more than enough mouths to feed across their talented defensive line to make an impact:
Calais Campbell is the league’s No. 3 edge defender in pass-rushing productivity, while defensive end Yannick Ngakoue is 11th. Campbell is just as likely to rush from the edge as he is to bump down inside to a three-technique and rush an overwhelmed guard, an act which brings Dante Fowler onto the field – 2015’s 6’3″ and 261-pound No. 3 overall pick who runs like a receiver (4.60-second 40-yard dash). After leading the league in pass attempts last season, Flacco ranks 27th through two games, and nobody has received double-digit targets. There’s uncertainty abound as the Ravens attempt to win their first road game outside of Cleveland or Jacksonville since October of 2015, and the Jaguars’ elite cornerback duo of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye certainly doesn’t help.
Honorable Mentions
- New England Patriots (Tom Brady) vs. Houston Texans: The Texans’ fearsome edge rushers Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney have combined for just eight pressures in 98 pass-rush snaps this season. With No. 1 cornerback Kevin Johnson (knee) out, the Texans can’t afford to struggle to get to Tom Brady and a Patriots offense currently implied to score a slate-high 28.75 points.
- Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers) vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Jordy Nelson (quad) is more likely to play than Randall Cobb (chest), and the Packers also expect to welcome back left tackle Bryan Bulaga (ankle, questionable). The Bengals currently lead the league in pass defense, but that’s more a result of facing just 41 combined pass attempts from Flacco and rookie Deshaun Watson than overall dominance.
- Carolina Panthers (Cam Newton) vs. New Orleans Saints: Newton has averaged 27.7 DraftKings PPG with a +8.45 Plus/Minus in six career games against the Saints. Still, he’s once again completing fewer than 60 percent of his passes and hasn’t approached his career-high efficiency marks from 2015. The Panthers’ offensive line could be without center Ryan Kalil (neck, questionable).
