After a great week at the U.S. Open, the PGA TOUR heads directly into the final Signature Event of this year. Almost all the stars will be in the field this week at TPC River Highlands, which will be hosting this event for the 40th straight year.
Since it is a Signature Event, all the top players on the PGA TOUR will be teeing it up. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will look to bounce back from a disappointing showing last week, with Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, and Patrick Cantlay rounding out the top five salaries. Rory McIlroy was scheduled to play but withdrew after last week’s tough loss at the U.S. Open. Defending champion Keegan Bradley is also in the field with a much more affordable salary of $8,700. Aside from Rory, every eligible player in the top 35 of the Official World Golf Rankings is scheduled to tee it up this week. Without Rory, the field is down to 71 players, and there will be no cut, so all players will play four rounds, barring withdrawal or disqualification.
The course this week is much more well-known than the last few courses on the PGA TOUR which were parts of rotations or coming off major renovations. TPC River Highlands is a par 70 that was completely redesigned by Pete Dye in 1982. It’s the third-shortest layout in the PGA TOUR’s regular schedule and typically yields very low scores. It’s a huge break for the pros who had to grind it out last week at the difficult Pinehurst No. 2. Last year’s winning score was a record -23, and Jim Furyk’s lowest round in PGA TOUR history, an amazing 58, at TPC River Highlands in 2016. The designers reportedly toughened it up a bit after last year, though, so the rough and pin positions could be tougher than last year’s birdie fest.
Overall, the course rewards shotmaking with an emphasis on approach. Strokes Gained: Approach and Stroked Gaines: Off-The-Tee (Short Courses) along with par-4 Birdie or Better % will be the key stats to try and attack. The closing stretch of holes brings plenty of risk and reward while regularly delivering close finishes. Fourteen of the last 20 tournaments at TPC River Highlands have been decided by one shot or in a playoff.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Xander Schauffele $11,200
Rory’s withdrawal leaves the top of the player pool extremely saturated with ownership. Before McIlroy pulled out, there was some good leverage available, but now there’s fairly heavy ownership across the board. Even though he’s not an amazing leverage play with the second-highest ownership projection on the board, Schauffele is a strong option to consider. He has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections for the week behind only Scheffler, and he has the highest Perfect% of all players, including Scottie.
Schauffele posted another top 10 finish at the U.S. Open last week and has finished in the top 10 in seven of his last eight events, including his win at the PGA Championship and a top 10 at the Masters. He finished runner-up to Rory at the Wells Fargo Championship and to Scottie at THE PLAYERS Championship during that stretch. Over the last six months, he ranks second in the field in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Putting over that span and has really been locked in across all the clubs in his bag.
He has all that great form coming into this week’s stop at TPC River Highlands, where he has won (2022) and finished in the top 20 in three of his four appearances. He’s less chalky than Scottie and comes in with great form and course history, so if you’re paying up, Schauffele is a strong target to consider while differentiating your roster in other spots since there aren’t really any “under the radar” expensive options.
Tommy Fleetwood $9,100
With all the high ownership at the top of the salary structure, Fleetwood has the highest SimLeverage of all players with salaries of at least $9,000, and only he and Hideki Matsuyama have positive SimLeverages in that price range. Fleetwood has an ownership projection under 10%, which is surprising since he still seems close to breaking through for his first PGA TOUR win.
The 33-year-old Englishman has seven wins on the DP World Tour, including his win at the Dubai Invitational in January. In his 12 PGA TOUR events since then, he has made 11 cuts and seven top 25s, including three straight weeks at the RBC Candian Open, the Memorial Tournament, and the U.S. Open coming into this week. Over the last 20 rounds, Fleetwood ranks in the top 10 in this elite field in Total Strokes Gained, the top 25 in Strokes Gained: Approach, and the top 15 in Strokes Gained: Putting. Like Schauffele, he has great balance in his game, which he has turned into consistently high finishes.
Fleetwood missed the cut at this event last year but did make the cut in his two previous appearances, highlighted by a T13 in 2019. He has the kind of game that should fit the course well, and his breakthrough win could come this week. Even if it doesn’t, he has been stringing together so many strong finishes that getting him with an ownership projection under 10% is a great leverage play.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Tony Finau $8,900
With so much ownership concentrated at the very top, Finau becomes a very good leverage opportunity right under $9,000. He has the second-highest SimLeverage in the field this week and the fifth-highest Perfect% behind only the four players with the biggest salaries. His ownership projection is higher than Fleetwood’s but still very attractive at under 12%.
Finau rolls into Cromwell playing great golf and ranks in the top 10 in this strong field in Total Strokes Gained and Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 24 rounds. During that span, he ranks third in Strokes Gained: Approach, behind only Xander and Scheffler. Since this course especially rewards that metric, he should be in good shape.
Even though he has been playing well, Finau hasn’t truly contended for many tournament wins. He did finish T3 last week and could have been right there with Bryson and Rory if not for a tragic triple-bogey at the short 13th in Round 3. Finau also finished runner-up at the Texas Children’s Houston Open earlier this season as another of his four top 10s. He also has 10 top 25s this season and continues to steadily turn in strong showings on a variety of setups.
Finau has four top 25s in his eight trips to TPC River Highlands, although he has missed the cut three times as well. He has a lot of experience on the course, and with the way he’s rolling right now, he could definitely be in contention on Sunday this week and in several tournaments the rest of the season.
Tom Kim $8,100
Kim has also been rounding into form lately, and he has the third-highest SimLeverage of the players with salaries in the $8,000s. He also has the third-highest ceiling, median and floor projection in that price range and the third-lowest ownership projection.
In 13 of his last 14 PGA TOUR events, Kim has made the cut, with the one exception coming at the Valero Texas Open. He finished in the top 30 at each of the three majors this season and had his best finish of the season three weeks ago with a T4 at the RBC Canadian Open, which was also his fifth top 25 of the year.
This will only be Kim’s second career appearance at TPC River Highlands after he finished T38 last year in his debut. He returns to the Travelers in especially good form ball striking. Over his last 12 rounds, he ranks seventh in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and ninth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
In his career, Kim has shown he likes events with low-scoring winners, claiming the Shriners twice and the Wyndham Championship on similar getable courses. Getting him at such a low ownership and affordable salary makes him one of my favorite leverage plays of the week.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Sungjae Im $7,900
If you don’t mind some chalk in this price range, Sepp Straka is a good play, but his ownership projection has soared to the point that it is the fourth-highest in the entire field. Im’s ownership projection is almost 5% lower, but he has flashed some signs that he’s turning his game around over the past few weeks.
Im struggled early in the season, posting uncharacteristically poor performances, but he seems to have started to find his groove over the last couple of months. During that span, he missed the cut at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open but also notched four top-12 finishes, including back-to-back top 10s at the Charles Schwab and the Memorial. He also successfully defended his title at the KPGA’s Woori Financial Group Championship a month ago.
Aside from his missed cuts at all three majors, he has been looking much more like himself lately. Maybe the fact that he didn’t have to grind all weekend will help him be fresher and ready for this week at the Travelers, where he is 3-for-3 making the cut in his career with two top 30s.
Like his countryman Tom Kim, Im has shown the ability to win in low-scoring birdie fests like this week is expected to be. He has the second-highest Perfect% in this price range behind only Straka, and I think he makes a very solid GPP pivot due to his high upside.
Robert MacIntyre $7,000
Bobby Mac got his first PGA TOUR win at the RBC Canadian Open and then took a week off before coming back to the U.S. for last week’s Open. He missed the cut on the number, but he should be ready to return to contention this week in his debut at TPC River Highlands.
MacIntyre struggled early in the season after moving to the PGA TOUR from the DP World Tour last year but found his rhythm, posting three top 15s in his last four events, culminating in his win in Hamilton. Over his last 16 rounds, MacIntyre ranks sixth in Total Strokes Gained and second in Strokes Gained: Putting. He leads the field during that stretch in strokes gained with his short game and is in the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Even though the lefty hasn’t played this track, it should fit him nicely. Phil Mickelson joked at one point that TPC River Highlands is clearly a left-handed golf course since he and Bubba Watson enjoyed so much success at this venue. With those two playing for LIV GOLF, Brian Harman is one of the few regular PGA TOUR players who is left-handed and also has a strong track record at TPC River Highlands.
MacIntyre has an ownership projection under 4% this week and has the second-highest Leverage rating and fifth-highest SimLeverage rating of all players with salaries of at least $7,000. He’s a strong leverage play with the potential to spike and return great value if he bounces back from last week’s missed cut and plays like he did in Canada.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Lucas Glover $6,700
Glover has the highest ceiling projection of the 30 players priced under $7,000 this week but only the 10th-highest ownership projection in that group. He has the third-highest Perfect% and the fourth-highest SimLeverage of those players and gets a boost since he has plenty of experience at the venue.
Not all of the experience for Glover has been good, though, since the veteran has missed the cut in nine of his 14 career visits to Cromwell. He did post three top 25s, though, including just four years ago when he finished T20.
Glover missed the cut in his last two events at the Memorial and the U.S. Open on difficult courses, but before that, he had been stringing together some good results. He made the cut in 12 of his 14 previous events this season with five top 25s, including the Wells Fargo and the Charles Schwab Challenge in the last five weeks.
Since Glover is certain to make the cut this week, he’s a strong sub-$7,000 option with plenty of upside.
Michael Thorbjornsen $6,500
One of the most interesting storylines to watch from this salary bracket will be Thorbhornsen’s pro debut. He earned his PGA TOUR card by finishing No. 1 in PGA TOUR University, following Ludvig Aberg, who was the first to follow this path to the pros.
Thorbjornsen has already finished in the top 20 in four PGA TOUR and DP World Tour events while starring at Stanford, and one of those events came in the 2022 Travelers Championship, where he finished fourth, four strokes behind Schauffele. The Massachusetts native played on a sponsor exemption that year and will do so again this season in his first event since turning pro.
The 22-year-old is definitely an unknown, but our projections show he could be a great leverage value. He has the highest SimLeverage in the field and the second-highest Perfect% of all players with salaries under $7,000. Of that group, He also has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections. Getting him with an ownership projection under 2% makes a lot of sense, not only for his fun storyline but also from a strategy perspective.
