The 2022 PGA TOUR season will come to an end this week as we head to East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia, to play the TOUR Championship. The top 30 players left standing in the FedEx Cup standings are set to compete for the FedEx Cup Championship and the $18 million payday that accompanies it.
East Lake Golf Club is a par 70 measuring 7,319 yards with Bermuda grass greens. A Donald Ross design, the difficulty this week for players will be managing the fast and undulating putting surface. Golfers with varying skill sets can compete at East Lake.
For contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is excellent for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Note: Pricing goes up to $13,600, so the ranges may look different than usual.
Strokes Gained: Approach
SG: Approach is the most predictive statistic at East Lake Golf Club. Success in this event has come in the form of many different types of golfers, but one of the consistent factors is the winners are putting their approach shots close.
- High-end target: Rory McIlroy— $10,800 (1st Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Mid-range target: Tony Finau— $9,600 (2nd Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Value target: Scott Stallings— $7,400 (8th Strokes Gained: Approach)
Good Drives Gained
In the past, we have seen some of the most accurate golfers play their best golf at East Lake. Being a bomber isn’t a requirement this week; it is far more important to hit fairways. The golfers who put the ball in play most often should have a strong chance to compete in Atlanta.
- High-end target: Scottie Scheffler $13,600 (3rd Good Drives Gained)
- Mid-range target: Corey Conners— $8,000 (1st Good Drives Gained)
- Value target: Collin Morikawa— $7,900 (4th Good Drives Gained)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass + Lightning)
The difficulty of East Lake will be the speed of the greens. Donald Ross designs are known for having different levels on a sloping green, which makes finding the correct place to land the ball challenging. To be successful, golfers must excel at putting on both Bermuda grass greens and with lightning-fast speeds.
- High-end target: Xander Schauffele— $12,300 (2nd in Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass + Lightning)
- Mid-range target: Sam Burns— $9,900 (6th in Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass + Lightning)
- Value target: Max Homa— $7,500 (5th in Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass + Lightning)
Par 4: 450-500
Five of the par 4s at East Lake are between 450-500 yards. Playing these more difficult holes under par will be a good barometer of who has success in this week’s TOUR Championship.
- High-end target: Rory McIlroy— $10,800 (1st Par 4: 450-500)
- Mid-range target: Tony Finau— $9,600 (2nd Par 4: 450-500)
- Value target: Adam Scott— $6,600 (6th Par 4: 450-500)
Strokes Gained: Donald Ross Designs
We have seen the same golfers thrive on Ross designs season after season. The requirement for strategic ball placement combined with the undulating greens seems to catch the eye of specific players. It is important to note the players in this field who play their best golf on Ross designs.
- High-end target: Rory McIlroy— $10,800 (3rd Strokes Gained: Donald Ross Designs)
- Mid-range target: Viktor Hovland— $8,500 (2nd Strokes Gained: Donald Ross Designs)
- Value target: Billy Horschel— $6,900— (6th Strokes Gained: Donald Ross Designs)
