It was an absolutely epic finish to the second playoff event of the season last weekend at the BMW Championship, where we saw the current top-two players in the world battle it out for one final hole. Dustin Johnson made an improbable 43-foot putt on his 72nd hole of the tournament to force a one-hole playoff with Jon Rahm. Rahm proceeded to top DJ’s putt with one of his own from over 66 feet to claim the title in grand fashion.
Now, the final top 30 in the FedEx Cup head to East Lake in Atlanta, Georgia, to play for a $15,000,000 top prize at the TOUR Championship. This event is unlike any other throughout the season, as it sets up in a handicapped format, giving a stroke advantage to the top players in standings, tiered down to the 30th-ranked player. Johnson will start at 10-under with a two-stroke lead over second-place Jon Rahm and a 10-stroke lead over positions 26-30.
Rory McIlroy won the first version of this setup in 2019, overcoming a five-stroke deficit after starting the event in fifth position. Justin Thomas had the honor of the first-round lead last season, but it was completely erased by the end of the round. McIlroy ended up running away with the event with a four-stroke victory and also finished with the lowest gross score of the tournament.
The change continues to be controversial, but it worked well last year and was implemented to give the advantage to the players who had done well throughout the year. The format will be discussed ad nauseam throughout the week, so we will turn our focus to the course at East Lake.
East Lake Golf Club Preview
We are heading into the 15th consecutive year the PGA has played its TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club, home of the legendary Bobby Jones. Overlooking the Atlanta skyline, East Lake has hosted this event 19 times since 1998, and was appointed the permanent home in 2005. It has been the stage for a number of signature moments on tour, most recently with Tiger Woods’ first victory in his journey back from back surgery in 2018.
The scorecard reflects the same 7,346-yard, Par-70 setup that was played in 2019 at the Tom Bendelow-designed track. As in year’s past, it will feature bermudagrass tees, rough, and greens with zoysia grass fairways. The rough will be quite a change for players off of the thick rough they encountered at Olympia Fields last week, as it will be just 2.5 inches in length. There’s also water in play on four holes around the course and 74 sand bunkers in total. The greens will continue to roll fast at 12 on the Stimpmeter. Over the past four years, winning scores have ranged from 11-13 under par, with Rory’s score boosted five shots to 18-under-par in last year’s inaugural stroke-adjusted setup.
The teeth of East Lake Golf Club come out in the five par 4s that play over 450 yards, as well as three par 3s of 211 yards or more. There is no gentle introduction at this course, as the 469-yard par 4 first hole plays as one of the two most difficult holes out there. It plays over par with a 27.5% bogey rate and yields birdies just over 9% of the time. Escaping the first with a par is a good start to any player’s round.
The par 4 14th is a beast of a hole and plays as the hardest hole at East Lake year after year in the TOUR Championship. The 526-yard hole is right there in front of the players but poses a difficult tee shot to a narrow landing zone with the added difficulty of the long approach into a bunker-protected green. Similar to the first, it’s likely to over par on the event, and any par will be a good one on this par 4.
All of the par 3s at the TOUR Championship play at solid length with the shortest being the 197-yard second hole. The three others — ninth, 11th, and 15th — typically play as three of the most difficult seven holes on the course. The 235-yard ninth is a brutal way to close out the outward nine. However, the 211-yard 15th plays the toughest of the bunch, as it’s a long approach into a peninsula green surrounded by water.
There are two par 5s, which serve as the best scoring opportunities on the course. The sixth and 18th each play as the two easiest holes at East Lake. The 531-yard sixth is reachable in two by everyone in the field. It has allowed a birdie rate of nearly 55%, with an added 3.4% eagle rate and less than 5% bogey percentage. This is a hole where players will fall behind if they don’t take advantage with a birdie. The 18th has seen similar results. The 563-yard par 5 plays to a scoring average of 4.57 and yields an eagle rate of just over 2%. As a reachable closing hole, it can create some drama down the stretch of the final round and may ultimately decide who comes out on top.
Course Horses
As we dive into course history, it’s important to note a quick reminder that this is and has been a 30-man field, so a top-15 finish is just beating half of the field. I am going to try to focus on those who have been truly elite around here in their appearances. I will also try to give some color to last year’s results outside of the stroke adjustment.
Rory McIlroy
Rory seemed to find his game a bit last weekend at the BMW Championship, but we also learned that he could leave at any moment with he and his wife expecting their first child any day. Outside of that clear distraction, Rory absolutely loves East Lake Golf Club. He won in impressive fashion last year by four strokes despite spotting Justin Thomas a five-shot lead to start the tournament. McIlroy shot 13-under for the four-day event, matching the best tournament score since Henrik Stenson shot the same in 2013.
Last year was McIlroy’s second victory in four years at the TOUR Championship. Those wins, on top of his seventh-place finish in 2018 and second-place finish in 2014, make it easy to overlook his seemingly lackluster 16th-place finish in 2015. This week, he will seek to become the first player to win the event in back-to-back years. If there’s one true horse for this course, it’s Rory.
Xander Schaufele
Xander may take umbrage with my Rory claim above, and rightfully so. He was the only other player to finish at least 10-under in 2019 with his 10-under gross score, finishing second to McIlroy. The second-place finish was his third top-seven finish in as many years, which includes a victory in 2017. Despite his short track record at East Lake Golf Club, Xander has shown to really fit this course well and has found himself in contention each year he’s qualified for the TOUR Championship.
Justin Thomas
JT has been great around East Lake for the last four years. Ironically, last year was his worst on-course performance despite the third-place finish. As I noted previously, he was the leader in the FedEx Cup standings heading into the TOUR Championship and only added three strokes to his 10-under starting score. That result, from a gross standpoint, would’ve been ninth-best in the field and 10 shots behind McIlroy. He does seem to love this Atlanta course, though. In his three prior trips, he posted all top-seven finishes, including a solo second in 2017 at 11-under.
Billy Horschel
It’s difficult to dig deep on an event that typically features 30 of the best players in the world when nine are making their inaugural appearance this year. Billy Horschel highlights three players making their first trips back to Atlanta in extended time frames. Brendon Todd and Ryan Palmer are making their first appearances at the TOUR Championship since 2014.
This will only be Horschel’s second appearance in the last five years, with that event coming in 2018 when he finished second to Tiger. What about Horschel’s appearance prior to 2015? It was a win at the 2014 TOUR Championship by three strokes over Rory McIlroy and Jim Furyk. A first and second in two tries in the last six years seems pretty good. Horschel will start from 10 strokes back of DJ as the last man in the Top 30, but clearly, this is a course he will have some confidence playing.
