The only game Saturday is the first of the Western Conference Finals, but there should still be plenty of opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are two props I’m eyeing for the Golden Knights-Jets game, which starts at 7:00 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Golden Knights W James Neal over 3.5 shots on goal (+100)
7:00 p.m. ET
Vegas has gotten a recent shooting spike from “real deal” James Neal, who is averaging 4.4 shots per game over the past month (99th percentile) vs. 3.06 over the past year (95th). The Jets have also offered a favorable shooting matchup over the past month (92nd percentile in shot attempts allowed), and Vegas boasts an above-average 49.0 Expected Corsi For today. Neal has registered four or more shots in four of his past five games.
Jets G Hellebuyck over 29.5 total saves (-115)
7:00 p.m. ET
Both goalies should be busy today, as the Jets and Golden Knights both rank in the 92nd percentile or higher in shots allowed and 98th percentile in shots for over the past month. I have no problem firing at the over for Marc-Andre Fleury (30.5 saves, -115) either. In our Models, Fleury’s Save Prediction (33.66) slightly outpaces Hellebuyck (32.68), but the line in favor of the Winnipeg netminder offers a bit more wiggle room. In the second round, Vegas caused Sharks goaltenders to accrue 30.0 saves per game and Winnipeg averaged 33.57 saves per game against Nashville.
Pictured above: Connor Hellebuyck
Photo credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
