Friday features only three games, but there are still plenty of opportunities to look for some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are three props I’m eyeing for games at 7:00, 7:30, and 9:30 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Penguins C Sidney Crosby over 3.0 shots on goal (-140)
7:00 p.m. ET
Earlier today on Inside the Lab, we discussed how to be contrarian with the chalky Penguins in DFS, but Crosby may provide a significant opportunity in the props market. As one of the league’s most high-volume shooters (98th percentile over the past month) in a well above-average matchup against the Flyers (93rd percentile in shot attempts allowed), Crosby should get his share of shots, especially since the Penguins don’t want to head back to Philly for Game 6. Despite averaging 2.33 shots per game in this series, Crosby’s 3.80 per-game average over the past month is still relevant. He has had at least three shots 11 times in his last 15 games.
Wild W Nino Niederreiter under 2.5 shots on goal (-125)
7:30 p.m. ET
Over the past year, Niederreiter has notably averaged 2.11 shots per game (79th percentile), but over the past month his shots have plummeted to 1.33 per game (45th). Niederreiter has also registered three or more shots in only three of his past 15 games, and Winnipeg leads the slate with the fewest Corsi Allowed (42.2) over the past month (33rd percentile in shot attempts allowed). This is a tough spot for Niederreiter to progress toward his long-term mean, especially given that the Wild own the slate’s lowest Expected Corsi For.
Predators D Roman Josi over 2.5 shots on goal (-140)
9:30 p.m. ET
As the added juice indicates, this line is egregiously low. The Predators’ system is built around creating as many shots as possible for their defensemen, and Josi is averaging 3.3 and 3.37 shots over the past month and year, respectively. The matchup is favorable against Colorado (97th percentile in shot attempts allowed), and Nashville boasts the highest Expected Corsi For today. Over the past month, Josi has registered three or more shots in 10 of 14 games.
Pictured above: Roman Josi
Photo credit: Ron Chenoy-USA Today Sports
