Tonight’s NHL slate features only three games, but that is more than enough to find some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool, as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are three props I’m eyeing for games at 7:00 and 7:30 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Penguins C Sidney Crosby over 3.0 shots on goal (-140)
7:00 p.m. ET
We discussed the Penguins-Flyers game at length today on Inside the Lab, and although recency bias in sports betting is something to consider this line looks especially egregious for one of the league’s most high-volume shooters (98th percentile over the past month) in a well above-average matchup (81st percentile in shot attempts allowed). Crosby has averaged 3.75 shots per game in the past month and reached three or more shots 10 times in his last 12 games.
Jets D Dustin Byfuglien over 3.0 shots on goal (-110)
7:30 p.m. ET
If you thought the Crosby line was soft, it’s even harder to stop hammering Byfuglien over 3.0. (There’s a Jonathan Bales-esque penis joke in there somewhere.)
On today’s slate, only Patric Hornqvist (99th, 4.33 shots) has averaged more shots on goal over the past month than Byfuglien (99th, 4.17), yet somehow his prop opened at 2.5 in a neutral matchup (65th percentile in shot attempts allowed).
LOL, Bovada.
Byfuglien has registered fewer than three shots in only four of his last 15 games, and Winnipeg owns the slate’s second-highest Expected Corsi For. Minnesota has been great at home this season, but the Wild allowed an average of three additional shots on the road this year, the eighth-largest split in the NHL.
Jets G Connor Hellebuyck under 28.0 total saves (-115)
7:30 p.m. ET
Hellebuyck has a 25.0 Save Prediction in our Models, and Minnesota also has the slate’s lowest Expected Corsi For. Only four times all season has a Winnipeg goaltender been projected for 25 or fewer saves. Per our Trends tool, in 2,542 NHL games this season, only 83 (3.27 percent) of goalies have been projected for 25 or fewer saves. Winnipeg is much improved on defense this season and leads the slate in Corsi Against over the past month, while Minnesota doesn’t shoot. Don’t over complicate this one.
Pictured above: Dustin Byfuglien and Connor Hellebuyck
Photo credit: James Carey Lauder-USA Today Sports
