Tonight is Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals, so we have the opportunity to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are two props I’m eyeing for the Golden Knights-Capitals game, which starts at 8:00 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Golden Knights G Marc-Andre Fleury under 30.5 total saves (-110)
Throughout the 2018 playoffs, Washington has caused opposing goaltenders to accrue 28.90 saves per game, and Vegas has averaged 30.88 saves per game, but after allowing 30+ shots in the four games directly before the Stanley Cup Finals the Golden Knights have allowed fewer than 25 in each game against the Capitals. In the Finals, it makes sense for the number of shots to stay low, with players who don’t normally block shots much more willing to sacrifice their bodies.
Golden Knights W Jonathan Marchessault over 3.5 shots on goal (-130)
With a double-digit individual Corsi For in Game 2 — a game in which he registered a massive nine shots — Marchessault offers value yet again in the props market. Marchessault has averaged 4.1 shots per game over the past month (99th percentile), and the Capitals are in the 81st percentile in shot attempts allowed over that same time. Not even needing to rely on the power play, Marchessault is doing most of his damage 5-on-5, with 13 of his 14 shots on goal in the series coming at even strength. Teammmates William Karlsson and Reilly Smith haven’t shown the same willingness to shoot, with just four shots in the series combined. Marchessault is the clear shooter on the top line, and his role is secure in that it’s not reliant on power play minutes.
Photo credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA Today Sports.
Pictured above: Jonathan Marchessault
