Tonight’s NHL slate features four games, more than enough to find some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool, as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are three props I’m eyeing for games at 7:00, 7:30, and 10:30 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Penguins G Matt Murray under 27.5 total saves (-115)
7:00 p.m. ET
Even on the road, Murray provides value with his prop. Pittsburgh has the lowest Corsi Allowed on the slate over the past month (42.4), and in this series Philadelphia has yet to eclipse even 27 shots on goal. Over the Flyers’ last 10 games, they have allowed opposing goaltenders to register 24.8 saves on average and have seen 27 or more saves only twice. Over that same time period, Penguins goalies have averaged 27.1 saves per game and fewer than 28 in 70% of those games. Murray owns the second-lowest Save Prediction on the slate and is on a Pittsburgh team that gives up very few shot attempts facing against a Philadelphia team that doesn’t shoot.
Devils W Nico Hischier under 2.5 shots on goal (-130)
7:30 p.m. ET
Very few of these player props have moved considerably since the start of the playoffs, so Hischier under 2.5 shots remains an enticing lean, as he’s averaging 1.82 shots over the past month. Despite Tampa Bay’s low 43.09 Corsi Against over the past month, the data from the first three games of this series (31, 44, and 38 shots for New Jersey) are slightly concerning, but the Devils are likely to regress in shot volume, given their slate-low Expected Corsi For. Doubling down with another low-volume shooter from this offense might be sharp.
Sharks D Brent Burns over 4.0 shots on goal (-115)
10:30 p.m. ET
We discussed the Sharks-Ducks game at length today on Inside the Lab, and recency bias in sports betting might have the public off of Burns, who has only three total shots over his last two games, but he’s still one of the league’s most high-volume shooters (99th percentile over the past month). The matchup is above-average against the Ducks (78th percentile in shot attempts allowed), and Burns has averaged 4.2 shots per game. The San Jose system is built around creating as many shots as possible, and Burns offers value in comparison to some of his teammates, such as Evander Kane (-150 odds, 3.94 shots per game over the past year).
Pictured above: Brent Burns
Photo credit: Stan Szeto-USA Today Sports
