Thursday features only two games, but there are still plenty of opportunities to look for some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are three props I’m eyeing for games at 7:05 and 10:05 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Capitals C Evgeny Kuznetsov under 3.5 shots on goal (+110)
7:05 p.m. ET
As noted in our series preview, Kuznetsov accumulates most of his shooting volume on the power play (95th percentile power play shots over the past month), but only Boston allowed fewer shots per game on the penalty kill than Pittsburgh in the first round. Kuznetsov has averaged just 2.86 shots per game (93rd) over the past month — well under today’s prop — and the matchup is brutal, highlighted by the Capitals’ slate-low 44.0 Expected Corsi For.
Penguins G Matt Murray under 30.5 total saves (-115)
7:05 p.m. ET
Over the past month, Penguins goaltenders have averaged 26.36 saves per game, and the team has allowed an astounding 41.5 shot attempts per game (29.21 shots on goal). With that kind of lock-down defense in front of him, Murray unsurprisingly has a slate-low 26.78 Save Prediction in our Models. Washington has the slate’s second-highest Expected Goals For, indicating that Murray could stop a lower percentage of his already minuscule workload, but this line seems a tad high for a Pittsburgh team that allowed just 24.7 shots per game in the first round.
Golden Knights W Jonathan Marchessault over 3.5 shots on goal (-130)
10:05 p.m. ET
The Golden Knights have gotten a recent shooting spike from Marchessault, who is averaging 4.0 shots per game over the past month (99th percentile) vs. 3.48 over the past year (97th). The Sharks have gone the other way defensively in the short term, ranking in the 96th percentile in shot attempts allowed over that same time after allowing the sixth-fewest average shots on goal (30.3) during the regular season. Given the favorable matchup and recent history, Marchessault looks like a good bet. Vegas owns the slate’s highest Expected Corsi For.
Pictured above: Jonathan Marchessault
Photo credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA Today Sports
