Thursday night features a full slate of NHL playoff action. There are plenty of opportunities to look for some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are three props I’m eyeing for games at 7:00, 9:30, and 10:30 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Devils C Nico Hischier under 2.5 shots on goal (-140)
7:00 p.m. ET
As detailed in our Eastern Conference Preview, the Lightning have been playing lock-down defense over the past month (21st percentile in shot attempts allowed), so attacking an under from a low-volume shooter playing against them might be sharp. New Jersey owns today’s lowest Expected Corsi For, and over the past month Hischier has averaged only 2.23 shots per game. Although he does have three shots in three of the past four games, in six bottom-third matchups (in regards to shots allowed) this season, he averaged 2.0 shots per game and registered more than 2.5 shots only once.
Avalanche G Jonathan Bernier over 30.0 total saves (-115)
9:30 p.m. ET
Over the past month, Avalanche goaltenders have averaged 33.0 saves per game, and the team has allowed an astounding 53.5 shot attempts per game (trailing only New Jersey today at 55.0). Bernier has a 34.09 Save Prediction in our Models, and Nashville also has the slate’s lowest Expected Goals For, indicating that Bernier is likely to stop a high percentage of an already voluminous projected workload.
Sharks W Evander Kane over 3.5 shots on goal (-125)
10:30 p.m. ET
We talked about Kane extensively today on Inside the Lab. Kane has averaged a massive 5.42 and 3.94 shots on goal over the past month and year, good enough for the 99th percentile in both categories. The matchup is favorable against Anaheim (76th percentile in shot attempts allowed), and San Jose boasts the second-highest Expected Corsi For today. Since he was traded to the Sharks at the deadline, Kane has averaged 4.71 shots on goal per game and registered four or more shots in 12 of 17 games.
Pictured above: Evander Kane
Photo credit: Billy Hurst-USA Today Sports
