Sunday features another spit slate with only two games, but there are still plenty of opportunities to look for some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are three props I’m eyeing for games at 3:00 and 7:00 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Capitals W T.J. Oshie under 2.5 shots on goal (-115)
3:00 p.m. ET
Oshie may be one of the most dangerous playmakers in the NHL, but he is far from a high-volume shooter. Over the past year, he has notably averaged 1.72 shots per game (65th percentile), and over the past month his shots have plummeted to 0.67 per game (11th percentile). The matchup is brutal — Pittsburgh allowed the ninth-fewest shots on goal this year — and Washington, unsurprisingly, owns the slate’s lowest Expected Corsi For. Oshie has registered two or fewer shots in nine of his last 12 games.
Predators D Roman Josi over 3.0 shots on goal (-160)
7:00 p.m. ET
Josi has averaged 3.5 and 3.37 shots on goal over the past month and year, good enough for the 97th percentile in both categories. The matchup is favorable against Winnipeg, which has allowed the highest Corsi on the slate over the past month (90th percentile in shot attempts allowed). In fact, the Predators own the top Expected Corsi For today, so Josi over 3.0 shots on goal is more than reasonable. He’s averaged 4.29 shots per game in the playoffs and registered three or more shots in every game but one.
Predators W Filip Forsberg over 3.5 shots on goal (-125)
7:00 p.m. ET
One way to take advantage of inefficient player props is to target recent shooting spikes. Forsberg has averaged 4.0 shots per game over the past month (99th percentile) vs. 2.67 over the past year (89th). The Jets have gone the other way defensively in the short term. After allowing 31.9 shots per game in the regular season, over their last four games they have averaged 34.25 shots against per game. Given the favorable matchup and recent history, Forsberg offers value.
Pictured above: Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg
Photo credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA Today Sports
