The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and value ratings for the Sunday Wild Card Slate.
We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Trends tool to test your DFS theories. And for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your team.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – $7,300 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes projects for the highest ceiling for the Sunday three-game slate, one of the more dynamic quarterbacks in the league. The high-powered Kansas City Chiefs offense is ranked 10th (per PFF), working as one of the more pass-heavy teams in the league, using a 63%/37% pass-to-run play calling split. Currently, the highest team total on the slate at 30.75-points, the Mahomes and the Chiefs have plenty of weapons in the receiving corps, namely Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle.
They can be mixed with Mahomes as stacking options, further creating an opportunity for an 85th-percentile outcome. Expect Pittsburgh to give Mahomes trouble at times, rated as the 14th-best defense (per Football Outsiders DVOA), but with a plethora of options in the passing game, the Chiefs’ quarterback should easily find the end zone.
Top Value: Dak Prescott vs. San Francisco 49ers – $6,700 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
Dak Prescott projects as a top value on the slate, squaring off against the San Francisco 49ers in a matchup with the highest total on the slate, currently at 51-points. Dallas grades out as the number one offense (per PFF) and should be able to move the ball down the field through the air against a 49ers’ defense ranked 16th in pass DVOA. With a receiving corps featuring Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Cedrick Wilson and Dalton Schultz, Prescott and the Cowboys run a 60%/40% pass-to-run play calling ratio and are the third-fastest team in the league, calling a play every 24.9 seconds (per RotoViz).
In looking at the Trends tool, Prescott exceeds expectations in matchups with shootout potential. On average, Prescott scores 24.03 actual DraftKings points and a +3.21 Plus/Minus rating, signaling the potential for fantasy relevance, given the likely passing cadence and plethora of weapons.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Leonard Fournette vs. Philadelphia Eagles – $5,600 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
Returning from a hamstring injury suffered in Week 15, Leonard Fournette returns to action in a matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles and projects for the highest ceiling on the slate. An integral part of the Buccaneers backfield, Fournette is responsible for a 57% share of carries, averaging 12.9 attempts per game and 4.51 yards per carry. In an ideal matchup against a Philadelphia Eagles defense ranked 19th in rush DVOA, Fournette can easily reach an 85th-percentile outcome, mainly given the opportunity on the ground and involvement in the passing game, averaging six targets per game.
Editor’s note: Fournette is expected to be inactive. See Player Models for updated ceiling projections.
Top Value: Najee Harris vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $6,600 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
Rookie running back Najee Harris has been a prominent figure in the Pittsburgh Steelers offense, projecting as a top value this week. Harris leads the league in snap percentage among running backs on the field for 84% of the Steelers’ plays (per FantasyPros). The late-game matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs should benefit Harris, with the Chiefs ranked 20th in rush DVOA. Harris should reach fantasy relevance given his workload (74% share of carries) and involvement in the Steelers’ pass-heavy offense, seeing 5.5 targets per game.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Deebo Samuel vs. Dallas Cowboys – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
Deebo Samuel projects for the highest ceiling in a matchup with likely shootout potential. The 49ers rank as the second-best offense (according to PFF), and Samuel is responsible for 25% of the target share coming from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Averaging 7.6 targets per game, Samuel has big-play upside, seeing 18.2 yards per reception and involvement in the rushing game, recording 3.7 rushing attempts per game.
Despite facing a Cowboys’ defense ranked second in DVOA, Samuel can reach an 85th-percentile outcome given his dynamic play ability and should be considered a bring-back option in Dallas Cowboy stacks.
Top Value: Cedrick Wilson vs. San Francisco 49ers – $4,300 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
With Dallas Cowboys’ wide receiver Michael Gallup suffering a season-ending ACL injury, Cedrick Wilson has seen an uptick in production as part of the high-powered Dallas Cowboys offense, projecting as the top value among wide receivers this week. In a Week 18 51-26 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, Wilson had a slate-breaking performance, targeted six times, catching five passes for 119 yards and two touchdowns.
With a discounted $4,300 price tag on DraftKings, Wilson gives rosters salary relief, giving access to higher-priced options like Deebo Samuel for a correlated piece. Wilson can easily reach fantasy relevance with a high-passing volume from Dak Prescott and in a likely high-scoring environment.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – $6,700 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
One of the matchup-proof players in the league, Travis Kelce projects for the highest ceiling on the slate. A key part of the Chiefs’ receiving corps, Kelce is responsible for 22% of the target share, averaging 8.4 targets per game and 12.2 yards per reception. Kelce’s upside comes from his involvement in the passing game and scoring opportunity, seeing 14 targets in the end zone this year (per AddMoreFunds).
An 85th-percentile outcome is possible for Kelce, despite facing a tough Steelers pass defense, ranked eighth in pass DVOA, given his crucial involvement as a member of the high-powered Chiefs’ receiving corps and a favorite of quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Top Value: Dallas Goedert vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $4,400 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
Despite facing a tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense ranked ninth in DVOA, Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert projects as a top value on the slate. Only behind wide receiver DeVonta Smith, Goedert has an 18% target share, averaging 5.1 targets per game and 14.8 yards per reception. With a usual allotment likely to go Goedert’s way from quarterback Jalen Hurts, expect fantasy relevance, given a discounted price on DraftKings and a salary relief option as a bring-back stack with Buccaneers’ quarterback Tom Brady or one of the many weapons on the Tampa Bay side.
