The Three Key MLB Players series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze . . . three key MLB players in the day’s slate. This series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Michael Pineda: Pitcher, Yankees
Pineda checks in with the 10th-highest pitcher salary on FanDuel, but he’s got arguably more upside then anyone not named Chris Sale or Jacob DeGrom. He averaged 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings last season and is facing a projected Rays lineup that has struck out against righties on 27.9 percent of its at-bats over the last year. The combination of matchup and stadium gives Pineda a mixture of statistics we don’t see often — a K Prediction of 11 and a Park Rating of 89, both of which are slate-high marks. Historically, when a pitcher with a K Prediction of between eight and 11 (the highest number in our database) has a Park Rating between 80 and 100, the results have been good:
Unfortunately, these pitchers typically have high ownership, averaging 30.2 percent. However, Pineda’s current FantasyLabs ownership projection is only nine to 12 percent on FanDuel and 13-16 percent on DraftKings. With that ownership discount, he looks enticing for guaranteed prize pools. He has a 65 percent FanDuel Bargain Rating.
Jose Altuve: 2B, Astros
In the early part of the season, the Astros have had one of most right-handed heavy lineups in the league.
Astros: DFS Scouting Report
Per our Lineup page, they’re currently projected to use eight right-handed or switch-hitting batters against lefty starter James Paxton, including all five of the crucial hitters at the top of the lineup. This should make them popular, especially since they’re tied for the second-highest implied Vegas team total (per our Vegas Dashboard):
Altuve in particular stands out, given his reputation for mashing left-handed pitching — but healthy skepticism is warranted. Last season the Astros moved Altuve from the leadoff spot to third in the batting order. In general, No. 3 hitters have a Plus/Minus roughly 65 percent lower than that of their leadoff counterparts (per our Trends Tool), and Altuve’s DraftKings Plus/Minus fell from +2.1 to -0.55 against left-handed pitchers after the switch. Even in what seems like an elite spot, Altuve rates as only as a mid-level option in our Player Models (available to Pro subscribers). Fading him might be a contrarian way to construct Astros stacks with our Lineup Builder.
Denard Span: OF, Giants
The Giants have been one of the sharpest teams early in the season, as high-stakes players have used them at a much higher rate then their low-stakes counterparts. In yesterday’s main slate, the three players with the highest Volatility Ratings in our DFS Ownership Dashboard all hailed from San Francisco:
On Sunday, one of the players with the highest Volatility Ratings was Span, who sat out on Tuesday against a left-handed pitcher. He is expected to slide back into the leadoff spot in today’s contest. The Giants currently have a slate-high implied Vegas total of 4.9 runs, and opposing pitcher Tijuan Walker gave up 1.85 home runs per nine innings last season. Span might be a favorite of the high-stakes players once again.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
