This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Seth Smith: Outfielder, Orioles
Leadoff hitters have traditionally been fast guys who can steal bases, but in today’s MLB that’s no longer necessarily the case. Smith belongs to the new breed of leadoff hitters, who can provide a little bit of power and specialize in getting on base. He’s especially good against right-handed pitchers, having historically provided solid value against them when leading off (per our Trends tool):
Smith has also increased his batted ball distance by 35 feet this season according to Statcast data, and hitters with comparable batted ball differentials have done well in the past, averaging a +1.64 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. His increased power plus the potential for extra at-bats as the leadoff man make Smith an intriguing option for an Orioles team currently implied by Vegas for 4.2 runs.
Luis Sardinas: 3B/SS, Padres
In a vacuum, targeting hitters at the bottom of the order is bad. Hitters batting sixth through eighth have an average Plus/Minus of -0.43 on DraftKings — but normal rules don’t apply at Coors Field. On 4/11 the high-stakes sharps were willing to roster some cheap hitters at the bottom of a lineup in order to increase their Coors exposure (per the DFS Ownership Dashboard):
On Wednesday, one of those guys could be Sardinas, who’s currently expected to bat sixth in the projected Padres lineup. Sardinas is a switch-hitter but has much better numbers from the right side of the plate, which should benefit him against Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland. Historically, batters hitting sixth through eighth at Coors have a Plus/Minus on DraftKings of +0.71 with an ownership of only 4.8 percent. Stacking some of the cheaper hitters in this game could be a contrarian way to get exposure to what will probably be the highest-owned game of the day. With the Lineup Builder in our Player Models, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Danny Salazar: Pitcher, Indians
Max Scherzer is the clear-cut top option on the all-day slate, but there’s some uncertainty on the main slate. One guy who appears to be in a good spot is Salazar, as Vegas currently has the Indians as massive favorites (per the Vegas Dashboard):
Favorites with moneyline odds between -200 and -250 have historically been good on FanDuel with a Plus/Minus of +6.27 and Consistency Rating of 66.4 percent. Additionally, Salazar has the fourth-highest K Prediction on the slate at 7.1, thanks in part to an average of 11.09 strikeouts per nine innings over the last twelve months. He’s normally a volatile pitcher — so he might be better for guaranteed prize pools than cash games — but Salazar has a lot of factors working in his favor tonight.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
