This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Dallas Keuchel: Pitcher, Astros
Keuchel is the most expensive pitcher in the main slate. The Astros have presently received 92 percent of moneyline bets (per our Vegas Dashboard), and under such advantageous conditions Keuchel has historically performed well, as noted by Bryan Mears in a previous MLB Slate Breakdown. When the Astros have received at least 80 percent of moneyline bets, Keuchel has averaged a +5.54 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 69.2 percent Consistency Rating and ridiculous 38.1 percent ownership (per our Trends tool). Pitchers with similar salaries ($10,500-$13.000), recent ground ball rates (55-74), K Predictions (7-9), and moneyline percentages (75-87) have been among the most reliable investments on DraftKings:
Keuchel also carries the best Park Factor, WHIP, opponent SO/9, opponent wOBA, and recent fly ball rate among the high-priced pitchers. Despite lagging behind in SO/9, Keuchel has recorded at least seven strikeouts in seven of his last 12 starts dating back to last season. Due to his inflated salary, he may be underowned in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) with a plethora of similarly priced pitchers available. Projected ownership can be found in the Player Models.
Paul Goldschmidt: First Base, Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks presently lead the slate in implied runs, and Goldschmidt is on the right side of his batting splits. He’s recorded at least 3.0 FanDuel points in 33 straight home games against left-handed pitchers, and opposing pitcher Tommy Milone has yielded at least one home run in five straight appearances. Per our DFS Ownership Dashboard, Goldschmidt has been among the highest-owned players in DraftKings GPPs when facing lefties at home, ranking in the top 10 in average ownership in each of the last four instances:
Milone has allowed a 2.211 HR/9 and 1.618 WHIP over the last year. Per Matt LaMarca’s MLB Pro Model Stacks:
Goldschmidt in particular stands out as an elite high-priced option with a historical Plus/Minus of +4.37 on FanDuel when facing left-handed pitchers at home.
Goldschmidt leads all first basemen with nine FanDuel Pro Trends, where he ranks second in monthly Consistency Rating.
Brett Gardner: Outfielder, Yankees
Projected Royals starter Jason Hammel has allowed a slate-worst recent batted ball distance of 245 feet, and the Yankees have an Opponent Bullpen Strength of 99 against the tired Royals relief pitchers. Hammel hasn’t pitched more than five innings in four of his seven starts this season, and his 1.601 HR/9 is the fourth-worst mark on the slate. Gardner has recorded a hit in his last 14 starts, and over his last 10 games he has managed to exceed salary-based expectations seven times:
The Yankees are presently implied to score 4.9 runs, the third-highest mark on the slate. Gardner is projected to bat leadoff (per our Lineups page), and he offers a Bargain Rating of 82 percent on FanDuel.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
