The Three Key MLB Players series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze . . . three key MLB players in the day’s slate. This series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Jonathan Villar: 3B/SS, Brewers
Villar checks in as the top base stealer on this slate, boasting an average of .395 stolen bases per game (SB/G) last season, but unlike a lot of other speedsters Villar is also able to do some damage with his bat: He had a .395 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and .238 isolated power (ISO) against left-handed pitchers last season. According to our Trends tool, Villar has typically done well on DraftKings when leading off against lefty pitchers:
Intriguingly, the only other players in the slate with at least a .200 ISO and 0.2 SB/G over the last 12 months are Villar’s teammates, Keon Broxton and Hernan Perez. They’re currently projected to bat second and fourth (per our Lineups page), and Brewers stacks containing all three players grade out nicely in our Stack Builder, which FantasyLabs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales touches on in his introduction to the 2017 MLB Tools.
Brandon Belt: 1B, Giants
The Giants were a popular team to target on Opening Day and will likely be popular again in this slate. Opposing pitcher Patrick Corbin gave up 1.44 home runs per nine innings and had a 1.624 WHIP last season. Not coincidentally, the Giants are implied for a slate-high five runs (per our Vegas Dashboard):
One player who particularly stands out is Belt. He’s the rare left-handed hitter with reverse splits, as his wOBA and ISO Differentials are positive against left-handed pitchers. However, his ownership against lefties has historically been approximately one third of his righty ownership (per our Trends tool), which makes him appealing in guaranteed prize pools. He currently grades out as one of the top FanDuel plays in our Player Models, where Pro subscribers can see the overall ratings for each player on the slate.
Kenta Maeda: SP, Dodgers
Maeda is to this slate what teammate Clayton Kershaw was on Monday: A highly favored pitcher facing a poor Padres team. Maeda has the slate’s highest FantasyLabs ownership projection, and as a chalky play he warrants some fade consideration — but, based on Kershaw’s ownership in yesterday’s slate, fading the top pitching option is something that high-stakes players are less likely to do than average low-stakes players (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
Per our Trends tool, Maeda’s never been the beneficiary of a moneyline this extreme (-233), but in the 10 games in which he’s been a favorite of at least -180 he’s averaged Plus/Minus values of +3.26 on DraftKings and +5.33 on FanDuel, where he leads the slate with nine Pro Trends and an 85 percent Bargain Rating. The Padres have a slate-high strikeout rate of 30.2 percent against right-handed pitchers over the last 12 months. Fade at your own risk.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
