This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Robbie Ray: Pitcher, Diamondbacks
Ray has been a Jekyll-and-Hyde pitcher throughout his career. On the one hand, over the last year he boasts a strikeout rate of 11.76 per nine innings, the top mark on the slate and one of the highest in the league. On the other hand, he has a WHIP of 1.50 and has allowed 1.33 home runs per nine innings over the last 12 months. One factor in his favor, though, is that he’s pitching on the road. Per our Trends tool, moving away from the hitter-friendly confines of Chase Field has historically been beneficial for Ray on FanDuel:
Additionally, this isn’t just an ordinary road game for Ray. AT&T Park has a Park Rating of 100 for pitchers, and the projected Giants lineup has a weighted on-base average of only .291, the sixth-lowest mark on the slate. There’s still plenty of risk with Ray, which probably makes him better for guaranteed prize pools than cash games, but he’s got tons of upside as well. He’s also got a slate-high Bargain Rating of 94 percent on FanDuel, which gives him even more appeal there.
Charlie Blackmon: Outfielder, Rockies
Being contrarian in GPPs is ideal, but sometimes people try too hard to be contrarian. On April 10, the Rockies had the highest implied team total at 6.4 runs, and clearly the sharp high-stakes DFS players wanted to get a big piece of that total: The three 4/10 players with the highest Volatility Ratings in our DFS Ownership Dashboard all play for Colorado:
The Rockies are in another great spot today. They have an even higher implied team total at 6.6 runs and arguably a more exploitable opposing pitcher in Jered Weaver, who has uninspiring Statcast data with a fly ball rate of 44 percent and hard hit rate of 38 percent over the last twelve months, which definitely doesn’t bode well for his performance at Coors. Projected to bat leadoff, Blackmon historically destroys right-handed pitching at home, with a Plus/Minus of +2.71 on DraftKings. It might not be original to stack the Rockies, but it could be profitable. With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Devon Travis: 2B, Blue Jays
The Rockies will probably garner the most attention in this slate, but the Blue Jays have some appeal in their own right. Vegas has them implied for 5.3 runs, which gives them the second-highest mark of the day (per our Vegas Dashboard):
Like Blackmon, Travis is projected to bat first, and leadoff hitters with an implied team total of 4.8-5.8 runs have a historical Plus/Minus on DraftKings of +1.44. Finally, as a reverse-splits hitter, Travis is actually on the beneficial side of his splits despite the righty/righty matchup with Willy Peralta. With positive wOBA and ISO Differentials against righties, Travis is currently one of the highest-rated hitters in our Player Models.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
