This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Jose Quintana: Pitcher, Cubs
Even though the Marlins gave Yu Darvish trouble last night, the Cubs are -200 moneyline favorites, and the Marlins are implied for a slate-low 3.3 runs against Quintana. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas odds and implied run totals have averaged 20.42 DraftKings points per game with a +3.05 Plus/Minus and a 64% Consistency Rating (per out Trends tool):
The Marlins have struggled versus right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, as their projected lineup has a strikeout rate of 33% and weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .270. Quintana was excellent last season with a 10.08 SO/9 and a respectable 1.21 WHIP. He’s expected to be chalky with a projected ownership rate exceeding 41%, so there could be some merit to fading him in a guaranteed prize pool (GPP) if you’re looking to go a different direction.
Josh Donaldson: Third Baseman, Blue Jays
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The Blue Jays rank as the top stack within the Tournament Player Model on FanDuel. The Blue Jays could undoubtedly be contrarian as they’re implied for a paltry 4.2 runs against Sonny Gray.
Donaldson stands out in the Tournament Model, and while he’s slightly worse against right-handed than left-handed pitching, over the last 12 months, he still has a .382 wOBA and .255 isolated power (ISO). The challenging part for Donaldson is that Gray had a fly ball rate of 27% last season and allowed an average batted ball distance of just 193 feet. Meanwhile, Donaldson sported an average batted ball distance of 214 feet with a 41% fly ball rate. The Tournament Model is a high-variance model, and Donaldson is projected for just 2-4% ownership, so he may be worth a roster spot as a differentiator in a chalkier lineup.
Mike Trout: Outfielder, Angels
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Angels have an implied run total of 5.0 runs as well as the third-highest Team Value Rating on the FanDuel all-day slate. They’re one of three teams with an implied run total of at least 5.0 runs.
Trout is set to square off against the right-handed Daniel Gossett, who in 18 appearances last season had some abysmal statcast data with his average batted ball distance of 212 feet and exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, and he owns a slate-high 2.15 HR/9. It’s an excellent spot for Trout, who crushes righties (and everyone else) with his .468 wOBA, .367 ISO and .182 ISO Diff, which is the fourth-best mark among outfielders in the all-day slate.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Josh Donaldson
Photo credit: Gerry Angus-USA TODAY Sports
