This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Yu Darvish: Pitcher, Cubs
There are a few intriguing pitching options on Saturday’s main slate, but Darvish stands out above the rest. The Cubs are the slate’s largest favorite with -225 Vegas moneyline odds and the Marlins are implied for 3.4 runs, the second-lowest mark on the slate. Historically, when teams are at least -200 moneyline favorites, pitchers have been amazingly consistent, averaging 21.56 DraftKings points per game with a +3.07 Plus/Minus and 64.1% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool):
The projected Marlins lineup has a hand-adjusted strikeout rate of just 22%, but Darvish still has a high floor given that he averaged 10.21 SO/9 last season, the highest mark on the slate. He also has the benefit of being in a friendly venue, as Marlins Park has a Park Factor of 84 for right-handed pitching.
Corey Seager: Shortstop, Dodgers
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The Dodgers currently rate as the top stack in the Bales Player Model. They’re implied for 4.8 runs and tied with the Twins and Orioles for the second-highest mark on the main slate.
Seager has a lefty-vs.-lefty matchup against Derek Holland, but Seager hit lefties well last season with an exceptional .390 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and .207 isolated power (ISO). Dating back to last season, Holland has an abysmal 1.81 WHIP and a 2.15 HR/9, both of which are slate-worst marks. He allowed plenty of hard contact last year with an average hard hit rate of 38%, exit velocity of 92 miles per hour and batted ball distance of 220 feet. Holland also allowed plenty of pop-ups with a 40% fly ball rate, and the wind is projected to be blowing out at Dodger Stadium tonight.
Alex Bregman: Third Baseman, Astros
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Astros are implied for a slate-high 5.9 runs (early slate) against left-hander Matt Moore. Even though the Astros are quite expensive, their high run-total still gives them the highest Team Value Rating this afternoon.
Bregman smashed lefties last season with an elite wOBA of .419 and .243 ISO. Furthermore, Moore allowed a .354 wOBA and .203 ISO to righties last season while sporting a 1.59 WHIP and 1.42 HR/9. His average batted ball distance of 218 feet, exit velocity of 91 miles per hour and 41% fly ball rate are all bottom-three marks among pitchers on the early slate. Per our Trends tool, hitters have averaged 9.21 DraftKings points with a +1.32 Plus/Minus when facing opposing pitchers with seasonal distance and velocity marks comparable to Moore’s. For more on why the Astros could be in a smash spot, read Matt LaMarca’s MLB Breakdown.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Yu Darvish
Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
