This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Jacob deGrom: Pitcher, Mets
deGrom dominated in his first start of the season on April 5, allowing only three base runners and striking out six batters over six scoreless innings. He looks to be in another nice spot, as the Phillies currently have the slate’s lowest implied run total at only 3.5 runs. Per the Trends Tool, deGrom has historically been strong on FanDuel against teams with implied totals of 3.0-4.0 runs:
He’s also pitched well against the Phillies in his young career. Over seven starts, he has an average Plus/Minus of +4.82 and a Consistency Rating of 86 percent on DraftKings. And despite his success against the Braves last week, deGrom’s salary has actually decreased by $1,300 on DraftKings following his first start. His current salary of $9,300 makes him $2,000 cheaper then Jon Lester and more then $3,000 cheaper then Chris Sale. Given his discounted price, deGrom is one of the highest-rated DraftKings pitchers in our Player Models.
Manuel Margot: OF, Padres
The Padres are headed to Coors Field, which puts them squarely on the DFS radar. All Coors hitters benefit from a Park Factor of 100, and the Padres and Rockies currently have the slate’s highest implied team totals (per the Vegas Dashboard):
One intriguing player is Margot, who in the projected Padres lineup is expected to occupy the key leadoff spot. Leadoff hitters for visiting teams at Coors have historically provided a Plus/Minus of +1.82 on DraftKings and +2.39 on FanDuel. Margot is especially enticing on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Matt Joyce: OF, Athletics
Joyce is currently projected to bat second for the Athletics, and with a salary below $2,500 on both sites he looks like a potential sharp play. Cheap hitters at the top of the lineup are usually heavily rostered by high-stakes players. For instance, the two hitters on April 9 with the highest Volatility Ratings in our DFS Ownership Dashboard were both $3,000 or less and in the top half of their lineups:
Joyce has an isolated power of .230 against right-handed pitchers over the last 12 months. DraftKings hitters comparable to Joyce in batting spot, salary, and ISO have provided a historical Plus/Minus of +1.12.
Stacking Joyce with some of his teammates could be a viable strategy in guaranteed prize pools. Opposing pitcher Ian Kennedy allowed 1.59 home runs per nine innings last season, and four- and five-man Athletics stacks grade out as some of the slate’s highest non-Coors options in our Stack Builder. Pro subscribers can easily use our Lineup Builder to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
