This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Robbie Ray: Pitcher, Diamondbacks
Ray is in an excellent spot on Friday night: He leads the slate with a 12.54 SO/9 dating back to last season. Consequently, Ray has a slate-high K Prediction of 11 against the Rockies. Per our Trends tool, when he has had a K Prediction of at least 10, Ray has averaged 24.55 DraftKings points per game with a +6.34 Plus/Minus and 66.7% Consistency Rating:
All things set up well for Ray here as the projected Rockies lineup has the slate’s second-highest SO/AB at .285 and is implied for 3.7 runs. Additionally, Ray is a home favorite (-146 moneyline). He’ll likely garner high ownership with just the sixth-highest pitching salary on DraftKings, where he has a slate-high +7.9 Projected Plus/Minus. Pro subscribers can review ownership shortly after lock in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Jose Altuve: Second Baseman, Astros
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The Astros are currently the top stack in the Tournament Player Model: They’re implied for a slate-high 5.5 runs, and even though the Astros are expensive they still boast the slate’s second-highest Team Value Rating.
Over the past 12 months, Altuve has sported a solid .200 isolated power (ISO) and an elite .402 weight on-base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitching. Doug Fister didn’t give up a lot of home runs last season as evidenced by his 0.92 HR/9, but he struggled with a 1.44 WHIP and 4.88 earned run average (ERA). Altuve comes at a steep price, but he has a 27.8-point Ceiling Projection — the highest mark among second basemen on Friday’s main slate.
Freddie Freeman: First Baseman, Braves
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Braves are implied for 4.6 runs, which is tied for the fourth-highest run total on the slate. Given the Braves’ run total and their overall low salaries, they have the benefit of having the slate’s highest Team Value Rating on DraftKings.
Freeman sits atop the Cash Game Player Model on DraftKings with a 75% Bargain Rating. The big man is taking on the right-handed Nick Pivetta, who is sporting an atrocious 1.53 WHIP and 1.72 HR/9 over the past 12 months. Pivetta has some of the worst statcast data on the slate as he surrendered an average batted ball distance of 217 feet, exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 35% last season. Freeman has crushed righties over the past 12 months with an adjusted .431 wOBA and .287 ISO, and he has a positive split-adjusted Park Factor of 60 at Sun Trust Park. Over the past year, Freeman has hadd excellent statcast data with an average batted ball distance of 239 feet, exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and fly ball rate of 40%.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Robbie Ray
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
