This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key NHL players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Max Pacioretty: Winger, Canadiens
The Canadiens have dominated the Rangers through three games despite having ‘only’ a 2-1 series lead. Henrik Lundqvist is the reason New York isn’t facing an elimination game Tuesday night. No team line has a higher CF60 at 5v5 so far this postseason than Pacioretty-Danault-Radulov, and only three lines have a higher CF%. So far the majority of the points have come from Radulov, who has two goals and three assists through the first three games compared to Pacioretty’s single assist and Danault’s two assists. That’s probably something we can expect to change, considering Pacioretty has registered 17 shots compared to eight from Radulov and six from Danault in the postseason.
Over the past two seasons, Pacioretty has had double the DraftKings Upside Rating on the road compared to at home (via our Trends tool):
Pacioretty is one of the highest-rated wingers in our Players Models and an intriguing play in guaranteed prize pools, as Radulov’s recent success will likely draw ownership from his linemates. Pro subscribers can review ownership across GPPs of all stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Pacioretty: DFS Scouting Report
David Schlemko: Defenseman, Sharks
The majority of value to be had in this slate is at defenseman, and a particularly intriguing pun option is Schlemko, who’s $3,330 on DraftKings and $3,200 on FanDuel. Playing on the third line, he’s likely to have reduced ownership — but the Sharks are favored with slate-high -128 moneyline odds and Schlemko has been incredibly consistent as a favorite this season:
It’s rare to find a defenseman this cheap who is on the power play and in the upper quartile in both shots and blocks over the last month.
Patric Hornqvist: Winger, Penguins
Hornqvist is an intriguing leverage play on higher-priced teammates like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The Penguins-Blue Jackets game has a slate-high over/under of 5.5 points, and that total is likely to drive ownership toward the elite players on the Penguins, who have a slate-high implied total of 2.9 goals. As a result, a player like Hornqvist could have depressed ownership. In April, his ownership has been less than half of Crosby’s and less than a third of Malkin’s.
Hornqvist could be unpopular in part because he’s ‘just’ a third-line forward, but he’s actually been his best in terms of raw production and Plus/Minus on the third line — at half the ownership:
Additionally, this series Hornqvist has had fairly impressive peripheral stats (11 shots and two blocks) to go along with his goal and assist. On the top power play unit with Crosby and Malkin, he will likely have opportunities to accrue points.
If Hornqvist is on the right end of a couple bounces in Game 4, especially early on, the Penguins could transition to a more conservative style of play to preserve the lead, which would not only help Hornqvist but also hurt the Penguins on the top lines.
Good luck, and be sure to watch our FREE Eastern Conference and Western Conference editions of Inside the Lab on our Premium Content Portal!
