This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Alex Meyer: Pitcher, Angels
If you’re looking to squeeze in a stud pitcher, finding a cheap complement on DraftKings is desirable — especially if he has strikeout upside. With seven strikeouts in three of his past four starts, Meyer is intriguing today. Each slate is different, but sharp high-stakes tournament players used Meyer as their top salary-saving option at pitcher in his last start (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
Meyer has solid Statcast data, boasting a recent batted ball distance of 185 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 22 percent, but his popularity is likely due to his low salary and strikeout upside. With the slate’s second-highest K Prediction at 7.4, Meyer is comparable to a historical cohort of low-priced pitchers with a Plus/Minus of +4.38 on DraftKings (per our Trends tool). As of writing there’s no Vegas data available for this game, but Meyers has plenty of upside as at worst a speculative punt play in guaranteed prize pools.
Joey Gallo: Third Base, Rangers
Team Value Rating is a FantasyLabs metric that measures which teams offer the most value based on their implied team totals and current player salaries. You can sort by TVR using the Vegas Dashboard, and no team on today’s DraftKings slate has a higher rating than the Rangers at 86:
Texas also currently has the highest implied team total of the day at 5.3 runs, and Gallo (projected to bat fifth per our Lineups page) stands out as one of the top options in Player Models. Per usual, Gallo has crushed the ball recently, with a batted ball distance of 243 feet, exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and fly ball and hard hit rates of 53 and 38 percent. Batters with comparable lineup spots, implied totals, and Statcast data have a respectable historical Plus/Minus of +1.19 on DraftKings.
Matt Carpenter: First Base, Cardinals
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The Cardinals are currently implied to score 5.2 runs against the Reds, who are starting the exploitable Bronson Arroyo with his 2.99 HR/9. Carpenter is projected to hit second and will likely be a core player in Cardinals stacks with a 90 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel:
Carpenter — sporting a .357 wOBA against right-handers — has been quiet lately, but his Recent Batted Ball Luck of +44 suggests he could be due for positive regression. St. Louis could see elevated ownership against Arroyo (even with four teams implied for five or more runs), but batters in comparable lineup spots with similar Vegas and Statcast data have historically averaged a +2.06 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to read today’s MLB Breakdown!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
