This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Corey Kluber: Pitcher, Indians
Rostering Kluber at his high salary isn’t easy, but the high-stakes players are likely to do it. He was priced similarly for his last start (6/9), and according to our GPP Grade the sharps rostered him at a significantly higher rate than the low-stakes players (via our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
Kluber leads the slate with an 8.1 K Prediction against a Dodgers team currently implied for just 3.7 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard). Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have a historical +3.47 Plus/Minus and 67.3 percent Consistency Rating on DraftKings (per our Trends tool).
Kluber owns probably the slate’s most appealing Statcast data as well with a batted ball distance of 173 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and fly ball and hard hit rates of 28 and 16 percent. The issue with Kluber isn’t so much whether he’s likely to hit value; it’s whether he crushes enough in order to make up for his high salary and ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Eddie Rosario: Outfielder, Twins
Finding cheap hitters is important if you’re looking to squeeze in a stud pitcher, but there’s nothing sneaky about rostering players on a team that dropped 20 runs the day prior. That said, the Twins currently lead the slate with 5.7 implied runs and Team Value Rating of 89 on DraftKings:
One player who could help to differentiate Minnesota stacks is Rosario, who rates surprisingly well in our Player Models and leads the slate with 12 Pro Trends. Projected to hit eighth (per our Lineups page), Rosario over the last 15 days has a batted ball distance of 252 feet, exit velocity of 93 mph, and hard hit rate of 46 percent. Historically, DraftKings batters with comparable implied team totals, lineup spots, and Statcast data have provided a Plus/Minus of +4.31.
Matt Carpenter: First Base, Cardinals
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. While the Orioles and Astros field the top four-man FanDuel stacks, the Cardinals are a team to which some DFS players might pivot, with their leadoff hitter likely to be a core player in many Cardinals stacks:
The Cardinals are implied for a strong 5.1 runs, and Carpenter has unreal Statcast data with a recent batted ball distance of 254 feet, exit velocity of 94 mph, and fly ball rate of 55 percent. Plus, he’s on the positive side of his splits with his .366 wOBA against right-handers. Carpenter’s Recent Batted Ball Luck of +54 suggests he could be due for some positive regression, and similarly unlucky FanDuel batters with comparable lineup spots and implied totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +3.69.
Good luck, and be sure to read the MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
