This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Max Scherzer: Pitcher, Nationals
Scherzer has been dominant to start the year, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.13 on FanDuel through his first 10 starts, and he now faces a Giants lineup that has a league-worst .278 wOBA this season. Unsurprisingly, he has some excellent data: a K Prediction of 8.5, moneyline odds of -172, and an opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs. If that isn’t enough, Scherzer also benefits from a slate high Park Factor of 93 and a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on FanDuel, where comparable pitchers have historically dominated (per our Trends Tool):
Scherzer also has some quality Statcast data over his last two starts, inducing ground balls at a 44 percent rate and posting negative differentials in batted ball distance and exit velocity. Finally, Scherzer has home-plate umpire Hal Gibson III, who has historically provided pitchers with a Plus/Minus of +1.47 on FanDuel. It’s hard not to like Scherzer today.
Salvador Perez: Catcher, Royals
The Royals could be a sneaky team to target. Their implied team total of 4.8 runs is only the sixth-highest mark of the day, but no team has a higher Team Value Rating on DraftKings (per the Vegas Dashboard):
No Royals hitter offers more value than Perez, whose Bargain Rating of 94 percent is the second-highest mark among all projected starters on the slate. He also has a 264-foot batted ball distance over the last 15 days, and batters with comparable recent distances and Bargain Ratings have a historical Plus/Minus of +3.22 on DraftKings. Finally, Perez leads the slate with 11 Pro Trends, and he’s on the positive side of his splits in a matchup against left-handed pitcher Matt Boyd. The Tigers-Royals game does have a 71 percent chance of precipitation, but if it plays Perez could be worth the risk in guaranteed prize pools: He’s one of the highest-rated hitters on our Player Models.
Corey Dickerson: Outfielder, Rays
Sharp high-stakes DFS players typically like to target leadoff hitters in lineups with high implied totals. On Monday (5/29), one of those guys was Dickerson, who had one of the slate’s highest Volatility Ratings (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
The Rays are in a good spot today, implied for 5.2 runs and facing a pitcher making his first career start in Austin Bibens-Dirkx. If they can knock Bibens-Dirkx out of the game early, then the Rays will have the opportunity to leverage their Opponent Bullpen Rating of 99 against the overworked Rangers relievers. Leadoff hitters with comparable Opposing Bullpen Ratings and implied team totals have historically produced a Plus/Minus of +2.50 on FanDuel, where Dickerson has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. Stacking Dickerson with some of his teammates is a viable option for GPPs and can be easily done with our Lineup Builder.
Good luck, and be sure to read our MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
