This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Michael Pineda: Pitcher, Yankees
Wednesday’s 11-game main slate has some intriguing pitching options but definitely no ‘locks.’ Pineda faces a Royals team that has a strikeout rate of just .245 against right-handed pitchers, but Pineda has a slate-high K Prediction of 7.8. While Pineda has less than an ideal opponent implied total of 4.2 runs, road pitchers with comparable implied runs, Vegas data, and strikeout predictions have fared well with a +1.52 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 56.2 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool):
In addition to having a strong K Prediction, Pineda also has some of the strongest Statcast data on the slate. He is sporting a recent batted ball distance of 178 feet, exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, hard hit rate of 29 percent, and ground ball rate of 58 percent. The combination of a strong K Prediction and exceptional Statcast data makes Pineda one of the top pitchers in the Bales Player Model.
Miguel Sano: Twins, Third Baseman
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The Twins have one of the top stacks on FanDuel, with a current implied run total of 4.6 against Rockies righty German Marquez, whose production has been hit or miss this season, as he has two starts with eight strikeouts and zero earned runs but two other starts with three or fewer strikeouts and five or more earned runs:
Projected to hit third (per our Lineups page), Sano is difficult to ignore, given his recent batted ball distance of 282 feet, exit velocit of 98 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 50 percent. Sano’s price is more friendly on FanDuel, where he boasts an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Note: This game has an 80 percent chance of precipitation.
Nomar Mazara: Rangers, Outfielder
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Rangers have one of the highest Team Value Ratings in the slate with a 77 on DraftKings. They also own the slate’s highest implied run total at 5.4 runs. Per our Lineups page, Mazara is projected to hit third for the Rangers:
Historically, hitters in the top five of the lineup with comparable implied totals average a +2.01 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Over his last 10 games, Mazara is averaging a recent batted ball distance of 231 feet, exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 31 percent. Given Mazara’s Statcast data and Recent Batted Ball Luck score of 58, he’s probably been better than his recent production. Positive regression could be headed his way.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
